pretty standard jam I think?

I don't think he'd call a jam with worse because a jam looks so ridic strong here esp at solid 10/20. At 1/2, you can make an argument for a random spazz. But assuming marshall never spazz jams 33 here, it'd have to be a call. We're repping anything from mid pp to Jx or even A5. He can have a missed Ax, missed hearts, overpair, or AJ thinking it's a good bet for value. Can't fold imo.

well he has TT+ & A3s but still turns other low aces into bluffs imo + a bunch of bd hearts so call?

thats tough hands u upload
except for QQ one, did you get called by TT or some A7s type hands?

Obviously can't fold due to how under-repped we are. If there is no history here we can only call imo. You would need a very special case for being able to value raise 54 here.

dunno how silly people get btn v co these days but if he bets jx on river i could see a c/r

you have ok amount of bluffs but the chk/shove is pretty dinky. probably an easy shove vs a monkey. vs someone solid dunno - prob gotta be confident about his 3b range on the btn and then go into the lab

He's not going to call I think, but you ahead sooooo often I think c/r is good

Annoying ripping it in here and getting snapcalled by JJ but nice when AA or whatever calls. What I do here will depend on what my image is at the time at anonymous table

very dry uncoordinated board though; no flushes and the only straights are a3 and 63 which we can discount and vs some eliminate completely because they aren't 3betting them pre. Same goes for 22/44/55; probably not 3betting those on the button. I guess he could bet turn like this with 1010 but a lot of people just check it back so we can discount that too. His only better 2pair is a running J10 that didn't give up on the flop. We lose to very little (63s, A3s, JJ,1010 and that is almost being generous but pretty standard).

On the other hand if villain has a hand like AA he is loving the runout I imagine; If he has an overpair he is putting every pair under it in your range. This is why even though this river bet is quite big I could still see him making it with AA/KK even QQ/AJ and calling off since while hero has all the value in his range unlike villain he has a lot of hands that will peel the 1st 2 streets and want to bluff river XXhh, 76, 56, 34, 33 etc.

i don't think we have that many bluffs here, despite the fact that every draw missed

- not many 3x hands are gonna be playing that way preflop (do we have K3s? 73s?), only 33 makes much sense
- given the flop and turn action... only straight draw we can for sure have is 76s. (not counting hearts)
- hearts we can have plenty i guess, i imagine we are floating flop very often with pretty much any 2 hearts

it's still very close i think.

given that we don't block any hearts or draws... we should just call? hes a little more polarized and has more insta-folds to a jam
if we block hearts/draws.. we jam? since he will have more thin value bets due to having fewer bluffs

not sure if this line of thinking is correct...

On September 29 2015 09:32 fira wrote: i don't think we have that many bluffs here, despite the fact that every draw missed

We have plenty of made hands that can't call the river bet we can turn into a bluff here if necessary imo.