do they both have AA or 1x AA/high cards often enough that my shove is good?

probably...but you're essentially getting another 150bb in with poor equity vs a very heavy AAxx range with supastan, so I think i'd just fold

if stan only had 100bb or slightly more, it'd probably be ok to just get in

I think this is ok

didn't see how deep supastan was, not sure now

On September 29 2015 19:26 TimDawg wrote: probably...but you're essentially getting another 150bb in with poor equity vs a very heavy AAxx range with supastan, so I think i'd just fold if stan only had 100bb or slightly more, it'd probably be ok to just get in

With one set of AA 'dead, you have 51% equity vs the other AA in the side pot and 43% in the main pot.

Pretty sure it's not a fold. At first I thought we should just flat but I guess that just lets him overcall hands he might have 4bet fold or confidently shove KK etc, so I think I like as played.

On September 30 2015 02:03 TianYuan wrote: Show nested quote + On September 29 2015 19:26 TimDawg wrote: probably...but you're essentially getting another 150bb in with poor equity vs a very heavy AAxx range with supastan, so I think i'd just fold if stan only had 100bb or slightly more, it'd probably be ok to just get in With one set of AA 'dead, you have 51% equity vs the other AA in the side pot and 43% in the main pot. Pretty sure it's not a fold. At first I thought we should just flat but I guess that just lets him overcall hands he might have 4bet fold or confidently shove KK etc, so I think I like as played.

ok nice

it seems,

When up against 2x AA, we are crushing pretty hard
vs AA + (insert good high card hand here) we have good equity

only when he has a mid-highish rundown that includes my outs is my equity really quite bad

finally pulling the PLO trigger. ur gonna crush

On September 30 2015 15:05 RaSZi wrote: How is this just assume ddouble AA?

You don't think this is double AA a huge amount of the time if this is two .5/1 regs? And even if it's 2 randos, one of them probably has AA and the other guy likely has a really stupid hand which either fucks us or helps us about an equal amount of the time.

I think it should be OK between the deep stack possibly 4b folding, good equity in the main pot and fine equity in sidepot... But I'll be honest and say I haven't done much work on spots like these with different stacksizes involved <_<

EDIT:
I'm honestly not sure how to calc this, since we need to know how often we'll win the sidepot when we lose the mainpot, right? And I dont know a way of finding this out... I've got things setup to calc ev of multiway semi-bluffs which is similar to this spot but not identical...

If we do it really, really basic... Giving the 100bb stack a range of AA,KK$ds and double suited 5-span connected hands (this is fairly loose but it's an assumption that hurts us so I don't think that's a bad thing), which leaves him with AA a bit under 1/3 of the time (29% but for simplicity)... Meaning on average our equity in the sidepot vs deepstack is 47% and 34.6 in the main.

(0.3463*(200) + (0.6537*(-85) = 13.69
0.53*(-152.5) + (0.47*(+152.5) = -9.15
= +4.54

But I feel like this is a gross oversimplification and if anyone wants to share how to properly calc the EV of this (multiway, varying stacksizes, how often we win mainpot but lose sidepot etc) I'd be grateful.