I dont think anyone ever folds here (myself and other reg I asked included), but I think it's very possible we should. We can still continue >80% of our range here assuming a 4% 4bet range, if we fold hands like this that have no connection to the board and reverse blockers (surprisingly we seem to be doing worse in this spot with AAQ6 without the Ah than we do with).
Even if we have him leading >50% of his range, and remove the strongest parts of it - JJ and (55,77,J7,J5):hh - we only get to 39% equity (I'm assuming $3b10o)!AA!$f24b as his starting range - which is a 10% custom oop 3betting range and a custom fold to 4b range which in this case equals to about 7.5% of his 3betting hands, which is very close to the average in this spot of 9.92% 3bet, 8.5% fold to 4b).
(($3b10o)!AA!$f24b): ((55,77,J5,J7)!hh,57,hh: (55,77,J5,J7,JJ),463,589,789,T89,J!jj,86,64,89)
38% vs that...
EDIT: Accidently wrote : in place of the !... should have been
(($3b10o)!AA!$f24b): ((55,77,J5,J7)!hh,57,hh!(55,77,J5,J7,JJ),463,589,789,T89,J!jj,86,64,89)
Which is 70% of his range and we have 40.9% vs that...
Fairly optimistic but not totally unreasonable assumptions... And of course if he's a wider 3bettor than this or fishier, it's not like KK or QQ has NEVER played like this even tho they make no sense. |