Villain is presumably a regular. No reads or history with him yet, but his stats are 39/26 with 1.9 aggression factor after 51 hands.

I feel like we should have bet on the turn but thought it would suck to get check-raised here, and if villain had a lower FD + a pair then letting him hit a diamond might be more profitable. So I decided to check behind.

River we hit top set. So we bet, he raised... Are we calling or shoving? Only hand that beat us is 56**.

Don't shove....

you also lose to 52

honestly I'd much rather fold than shove, vs unknown I guess I'm just calling, but expecting to lose more than half the time.

This is Omaha, just fucking fold.

On October 19 2015 11:04 TheHuHu3 wrote: This is Omaha, just fucking fold.

That was gonna be my follow up question. Is there any chance that we're also folding here?

On October 19 2015 07:21 TianYuan wrote: Don't shove....

So call or fold?

You're sort of capped, so without looking at it carefully, I imagine in theory you might need to call. But having no 5x or 6x and having diamonds, could see a fold.

I call here but I tend to make some pretty bad river calls with the justification that "I'm too high up in my range". I'll do this later as well (as well as the other hand), but something you should check is how often you have AA or AQ with a 5 or 6 in your hand here (or 52), and see how often you'd be folding if you call only those. Then add AA without diamonds.

Yeah it requires you to create flop cbet range then turn cbet range, then remove turn cbet range from your range of hands, so its a bit of work but should be a useful thing to do.

Shoving would be horrible. I thought u were beat at first glance

Did a quick mockup of flop turn betting ranges. Depending on how loosely you bet river, you might be able to fold this...
($fi50): (QQ,33,77,Q3,q7,Add,Kdd,Q:dd,AA:dd,KK:dd,Q56,Q54,546,54$np!(TT+),56!(TT+),46!(TT+),Q46,3$np,7$np,Ad$np)!(QQ,56,55,66,dd: (5,6)!(Q,37,34,47,KK,AA),33: (dd,5,6),77: (dd,5,6),54!(43,73,Q,74,KK+),Q7: (dd,5,6),Q4: (dd,5,6)): (Aq,52,AA,A7: (5,6),44,77,33): (52,AA: (5,6),AQ: (5,6),AA!dd,AQ!dd)

This is done really quickly and could have some big missed hand groups but if you vb like this you end up calling 45% of your river vb range (need to defend about 42% vs his sizing, a bit less in reality because it cost him money to get to river) and it all has a 5 or 6 blocker or no diamonds. If you vb all your A7 you only get to 31% calls here tho. It might still be fine vs most people to just vb it anyway and overfold to their craise.

I think folding here with your hand is probably ok.

you get that 42% from how often villain's bluff need's to work right?

10.6 + 14.63 = 25.23 , 14.63/25.23 = .58 So if villain is bluffing river he needs us to fold 58% of the time meaning we defend at 42%


Does the fact that we are getting 10 to win 25 on the very end have to do with anything? If we only call at 28.5% (the odds we are getting 10/35=.285) we would be undercalling right

It's clearer to me now... Thanks for all the advice.

it's obviously an easy fold

people underbluff as hell at this limit,

and it's not worth trying to understand if we are capped or not at plo25..

What about if we bet/fold the turn?

That's an incredible waste of your hand. You played it well.