^ obv if we fold it's an exploitative fold, banking on the idea that most villains underbluff this spot. If a particular villain is attempting the max exploit of x/r bet jam with everything then we can just readjust. It's easy to think in terms of our range and say we have to call because we're really high up in our range, but trying to be unexploitable is a flawed game plan against someone who never bluffs. It's the whole game theory vs exploitative argument, in my personal experience I did a lot better trying to exploit people's tendencies than focusing on balancing ranges, always calling down when I was at a certain threshold in my range, attempting to always have some bluffs in every spots etc, you're just making huge mistakes against people who aren't playing optimally and costing yourself big chunks of EV. At the end of the day you're playing against humans who make mistakes, people underbluff lots of spots, overbluff others, overcall and undercall in different spots. The key to winning the most money against players who are massively exploitable is to exploit them. Worry about having a game theoretically solid game when you're playing against others who are thinking on that wavelength or indeed you're against a GTO bot. As for the hand, given most people's preflop calling ranges from the SB I'd expect to see all combinations of flopped sets and I can only think of a couple combinations of potential "natural" bluffs (i.e those with equity to strong hands), those would basically be A3s, A5s, 67s 65s if he even calls these pre and it's not likely he'd always check raise those hands and in the case of 65s, 76s that he'd bet the turn with them. I don't see people just take a hand like T9s or JTs or something, check raise flop and barrel off in these spots and this leaves most villain's ranges pretty imbalanced towards sets here, unless he literally is calling pre with all combos of A3s A5s 65s 76s and playing them all like this all the time. Of course, if you know something specific about villain's tendencies you can make more informed decisions, but without knowing villain is a monkey or goes out his way to balance with bluffs it looks to me like it's a fold. Might be able to just fold to flop check raise too as you're drawing near enough dead vs sets and are going to have a hard time continuing on any turn and given it's not likely many villains will check/raise flop and give up turns too often you're just calling off an extra 10bb on the flop to fold it on the turn a really large percentage, and even when you hit an 8 or 6, you're still behind his value range. |
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United Kingdom. Jul 25 2016 11:31. Posts 5070
