You are overfolding river, what is your call range? sets and straights?thats way too few hands. Not to mention that with this particular holding you are blocking 66/77 that he might have, one more reason to call down. Also is 33/54s flatting from sb vs bu open?or 3betting? if its the later, even more reasons to call.Also not blocking backdoor hearts he might choose to buff with.89 got there but hand is just too strong to fold here.

How is he overfolding, there is not a single hand of villain's value range which we beat, and I cannot think of many bluffs here. Blocking 77 is whatever since its never x/ring flop.
Then again constructing a range would be hard because who the fuck flats SB these days - but like A5hh, A4hh, 8Thh? Cannot think of anything else which wouldn't be completely random. Doubt he defs 85 ever

We have about 12 7x combos which play this way and are weaker. Which leaves about 15 set combos and 20 straight combos in our range. So I really don't see how we are overfolding 33 s probably a fold as well even with those sizes

yeah the fact that he's in the sb makes this a very weird hand and gives hero more straights possibly. What's your sample on him? Is he a reg?

I could see 44, 55 as bluffs here, maybe a wild A4s, A5s. Some 1/2'ers might bluff AQ here.

Value hands: 33, (66, 77 blocked), 45s, 89s, maaybe weird JJ, TT, and 67s of course.


I'm calling here but I'm also a station.

edit: I like Pb's thinking. Reminds me of Polk analysis!

Obv we are not beating his value range which is super narrow but we dont have many more better hands here and we block some of his sets. We are also not blocking villain's bluffs. If u pick a hand to call that isnt beating villains value range, this is ideal( a bluffcatcher).As for what bluffs villain could have here? 44, 55, A5,A4, backdoor hearts, 65,34( if he is flatting these along with 45), 910,810. He doesnt have to bluff all of these obv, but some should be enough.

{had no sample, first hand played against him. The decision I made to fold was also affected (probably should never be a factor) due to the fact that I had been stacking off several people prior to this hand. I had a pretty good run for 4-5 days prior to this day and today was clearly a day that things were moving south again. (i always struggle with this, as luck has no memory, it keeps surprising me (yes.....even after playing over 1 million hands) that after a very good run, I always end up having a very bad run like anyway one else probably) So I go into miminimize loss mode. But perhaps likely I am adding to my losses due to making to many folds thinking I am minimizing my losses.

When I run good, people don't 3 bet me all that often, hit the flops consistently, money goes in good and I get a lot less resistance.
When I run bad all the above is obviously 180 degrees different but besides that I get into the above spots a lot more as well, people seem to (perhaps my perception is wrong) be hitting everything and show a lot of resistance/ fire power and when I do decide to call or make a stance they come up with the goods. (especially zoom) That is why i am leaning towards trying to find a fold especially after having had a few good days. As in zoom 200nl people don't seem to bluff often enough generally speaking although this differs wildly between opponents.
I don't know this opponent so in my view he belongs initially to the general assumption that he doesn't bluff as often as he should.

Timing wise he just clicked the bet button insta on the turn/ river so I guess the turn/ river is a good spot to bluff me of a low pair after raising a dry flop.
On the turn I figured (gut feel) that due to the way he was insta betting I expected an allin on river.

So my question is, if generally speaking people are not likely to bluff as often in zoom due to the fact that u can simply fold your way to better spots, are we better off to assume that an unknown player that goes ballistic on a dry flop and clearly wants the money in is probably full of it or has the nuts. But because he won't make a play like that every dry flop perhaps we should initially assume the nuts? Or should we stick with the math and ranges and assume that the 10 on the river doesn't hit his flop raising range all that often and insta betting is a sign of weakness.

Now the amount of times I make a hero call in zoom and get it wrong is probably higher than the amount of hero calls I get right. Unless it is very clear that the player missed his draw...

I will have a look in HM to see if I filter it whether this holds still true or not.

thx for all the replies very helpful!





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I honestly doubt that the particular spot means much in the long run as it is pretty close. I agree with Nitewin's and Pb's ranges though and it probably makes the spot a call. Pb is right, this is the best bluff catcher we have

Anyways you might want to make shorter sessions when you are "running bad" to play your A games as much as possible. I had the same struggle with good runs turning into bad and it resulted in playing bad afterward, cannot allow having such snowballing effects when it comes to games like poker.

Not really feeling your thought process all that much OP. Each hand is independent of the others as far as 'luck' so you shouldn't base any decisions on how you have been running.

Who flats 45s in the SB vs BU open? That's always 3bet. This is 33 or ur good (usually).

if ur folding with this, wtf are u calling with. didn''t read comments.

way over folding period.

call and take a note.