great line

Baron MUST have A high flush to jam for value.

A high flush draw that raised flop would have continued on the turn nearly 100% of the time. Since he checked, it must be a bluff.
(Llinus missed A4hh because that can check safely without losing its value.)

For him to bluff, he should have Ah at least. He can't have AK having no 3bet pre. If he only checks pairs on the turn, and his only pairs consist of A3, and A4, that narrows his range considerably.

So the bluffs are Ah3x, Ah4x, and the value hands are Ah4h.
(If Llinus can't put him on Ahxh, then it's safe to say he doesn't have AhXx no pair?)


Is this what Llinus was thinking or am I way off?

There's no way he thinks that 'since he checked, it must be a bluff'. Axhh will bet turn and check turn sometimes, these people don't play that predictably lol. probably the most likely combinations of bluffs are Ah3, Ah4, Ah2, Ah6, Ah5. Yes he never has AK probably, Although i've seen linus flat AQ on bb, and yes he probably always bluffs with Ah here.

He just thinks that red baron probably is turning too many Ahx into bluffs here, i wouldn't be able to know more than that.

I'll sim it for ya.

https://gyazo.com/87cea238fd8c464c1f5b1127cd4b2081
https://gyazo.com/93986bb1354c0487822d13b98604e2ad
https://gyazo.com/f4a0ab1c673b5ad9d4a65601edce60da
https://gyazo.com/3ab64543459dc90316fc9bdf7198fb07
https://gyazo.com/0f14bba52acc23ced3efdb3112a360c2
https://gyazo.com/e2cf570bc197c4fb97c6497cbc413302
https://gyazo.com/8569d297449b6d34d48683936b2f85d5

last picture shows the range of oop player after c/c the turn. so their bluffing range consist's of basically entirely Ah6, and some Ah5, but they c/r turn more often with the later. but at the same time, gto only really c/c's nutflush draw with A4hh on turn, that's literally the only nutflush draw that c/c turn. 80%+ of the combinations of jamming range on the river are either Ah6o, or A4hh. both played this hand within game theory optimal ranges.

thought it was a cooler because of who it was, history and board texture (Ah main reason)

stroggoz, correct me if Im wrong
do you realise that you are using only 1 betsize and this changes the whole solution ?
even if you input the current betsize used, they have multiple betsizes on the spot

which spot are you talking about? I don't really know their sizing strategies on this runout, but i have 2 different sizings for river c/r. 1 sizing for linus turn bet, 1 cbet sizing. i havn't really seen linus use multiple cbet sizings in SRP, i'm not sure about the turn or river. yeah, i realise whole solution can change. You must mean linus turn bet size right? i imagine that is the part that changes a ton if he bets bigger.