imo this is what's going on here:
the king is not a very good card for baron to barrel on, baron will check back a lot of Kings on the flop, linus will have more kings in his range. , AK, occasional c/c's with KQ or KT maybe. so it's a good card to lead on.
you could donk lead turn bigger, but that's just not part of linuslove's overall strategy. donking small means he gets to do it with entire range and the ev exploitability of doing so is very minimal. Run a sim and compare the ev difference between gto leading frequencies for 22%, and the ev of leading entire range for 100%. it will be small, so linus can only be exploited for a small amount when that's his strategy here.
If he wanted to donk turn bigger, that would force him to start splitting his range a lot, because if you donk big you have to check a lot of hands, and perhaps bet donk bet small, since donk betting entire range for a large sizing is pretty terrible for total ev, so a large donk bet forces you to play an overly complex strategy that, and it becomes quite hard to balance strategies and thinking about what your going to do with all your hands, so a big donk bet is only really a good idea if your a super computer or your doing some specific exploit or your oborra.
On river he does end up making it a bit more complicated and bets very big.
I don't think his goal is to do it to get value from Ax, or fold Q5 or w/e, he is simply playing a strategy and relying on his opponents to make mistakes vs it by not raising/calling/folding the right frequencies of hands. probably this kind of playstyle prints money at 100/200nl.
i don't really have very good preflop either as i don't have pioedge But i think limping strategies are only really good at higher stakes where the rake is lower in terms of bb/100. |