Interesting I would never have thought to use/have used in the past a third pot sizing on the turn after check raising the flop.

-do you think the ace high on turn influence the bet-sizing
-does linus c/r axdd, asx on flop. edit (yeah i think he does).

edit: also im inclined to think this line changes deeper.

well i hope i understand this hand history well because i am employing linus strategy that he uses here.

You might want to sim this yourself to see if I am right. I can tell you their rough preflop ranges here, baron opens button about 38-40% and 75o is probably the very bottom of linus calling range here (looking at hm2 filters). Not sure how much this deviates at ante games.

basically, on this Ace turn it becomes a tough decision over whether to bet/check if he had a sizing larger than 1/2 pot. To maxmize TOTAL EV, according to solvers, if you use a sizing greater than 1/2 pot, then your strategy will be complex. You will need to mix betting and checking at various frequences.

What i think linus is doing here is betting a small enough size so that he can bet his entire range, without the ev deviating too far from game theory optimal play. To measure this, run two simulations. One where you plug in the game tree and he bets 1/3 pot. screenshot the total EV on the turn for the OOP player. Then nodelock for entire range to bet 1/3 on pot on turn, and compare the total EV. substract the EV in the second screenshot from the first and then divide that answer by the potsize, and you will see how exploitable linus's strategy is. my guess is it will not be too exploitable. So he can be exploited for a little bit, not such a big deal when his strategy becomes very simple, and even very strong players will be making mistakes against this 1/3 pot sizing by not raising/folding/calling at the right frequencies. My guess is that vs this sizing regs get exploited for more than 1%, because they deviate too far from gto.

Now why does betting range with this sizing not deviate too far from optimal ev? Well, its small enough to start realizing equity with semi bluffs. it's betting a size with 100% frequency that allows for protection of equity, and it allows all his value hands on the flop to continue being value hands. It's a bit more complicated than this because red baron gets to realize equity with hands vs this sizing as well, but linus could have more of those hands in his range than baron.

There is also the fact that solvers don't care too much about sizing's. Even though it hates linus's sizing here, the ev difference won't be too far from gto.

This is one of spots where linus plays pretty far outside of gto sizings/frequencies.

well i ran a sim and it turns out what linus is doing here is actually quite far in ev difference, so i guess i was wrong there.., but it will make a lot of money vs people who don't play well vs it, they arn't raising it enough and you should never fold any hands vs this size either.

hmm ic.

I'm gona post it on runitonce, to see if other people agree with it.