This is a pretty interesting one. He leads 1/3 on turn and then again on river.

I think flop checkback ranges here will generally be weighted towards strong Kx that can't deal with a check raise but have decent equity on turn if they get led into, and have some showdown value, so hands like KT/KJ/KQ will check back at a higher frequency. and then some other ace highs, occasional nutty hands like overpairs and then the worst pair hands to cbet. This could make up a large enough fraction of invokers range, that if linus is going to lead turn, it will be very difficult to construct a leading range top pair and second pair and justify a larger sizing, such as 2/3 or 3/4 pot. The smaller sizing allows him to lead with all of his value hands as low as 7x and strong 6x maybe, and not lose much ev, as well as lead a ton of bluffs. He would not be able to justify a sizing of 2/3 or 3/4 pot with all of his value hands, as the K is too much of a range improvement for invoker, and he would lose too much ev by not having c/r or c/c with some stronger hands.

I'll mess around with the lab for this one

https://gyazo.com/7622cf02f5288eb49a1011ff0cd69e8f cbetting range. just did one sizing of 2/3. as you can see there are a lot of strong hands that check back. Linus is calling very wide on BB so this flop hits him reasonably hard.
https://gyazo.com/d34c6cb7bb5533b25448838843e8a879. what range explorer says about IP check back range on flop. 20% king high, 6% overpair, 5% top pair, 5% second pair

https://gyazo.com/9bcd3bb41dcdb532b1011db19f7fc847 turn leading range, definitely prefers the 1/3 sizing. I very much doubt linus uses more than one sizing on turn here, it makes sense to just use his leading range for the small sizing, although i;m not sure what % of his range would lead for his size.

On October 27 2017 13:18 Stroggoz wrote: https://gyazo.com/9bcd3bb41dcdb532b1011db19f7fc847 turn leading range, definitely prefers the 1/3 sizing. I very much doubt linus uses more than one sizing on turn here, it makes sense to just use his leading range for the small sizing, although i;m not sure what % of his range would lead for his size.

I didnt go through some deep thinking of this hand but im pretty sure everyone should have a very big bet size on this turn
so many hands clearly benefit from a big size that is hard to imagine not having a big size, im actually surprised with the small size %

what kind of sizing? i'm not sure what the ev difference between having two sizings and one sizing would be. But surely gto will have more than one sizing, so i think your right that everyone should have a bigger sizing. Maybe linus does, but my gut feeling based on other hands is that he just has one.

resimmed it with overbet added in. It likes mixing in overbets, they are good to do with strong semi bluffing hands, and the portion of nutted hands where its better to overbet than lead small. https://gyazo.com/b98ed00dbc38323e1ac063d262634a1e. linus could have have a big sizing here, looking at the 162 hands he played this year where he did overbet probe the turn in SRP BU vs BB, i couldn't find any spots that were precisely similar. I know he likes simplification, but two sizes are possible.

hotness:

https://gyazo.com/1bebc379a75436c4b38f5dced3a5c5c0 IP equity
https://gyazo.com/e04a3325a380b83f5b36868441a90fbd OOP equity
https://gyazo.com/86f4467703a79b4a9e4910f384b5a3da IP EV
https://gyazo.com/192f3452a63da2cffe6fe0094851a2c2 OOP EV
https://gyazo.com/814c245d09f463f86b77cde552970d61 overall strategy on the Kc turn

there are more factors than simple range improvement that's for sure.

A turn hits IP hardest and he probes overbet.
K turn hits IP second hardest and he probes small
any 5, 8, or 3 turn hits IP very weakly and he probes small.

range explorer says 20% of IP range on button is King high, and 31% is ace high, that 10% difference is enough to completely change your strategy from an overbet probe to a small turn probe where you can include small pairs. the ace simply hits button too much to do a small lead strategy, it becomes better to check 2nd/3rd pair compared to betting them for 30% sizing.

Anyway, that's enough strategy for today, i need to grind