Do you expect him to sometimes slowplay JJ to AA preflop?
does he c/raise a ton on dry flops?
Seems like a line that most people would never take with 4x, 55-88 but would with a few gutshots and 2x

not 3betting AA would be insanely bad. Kind've a meh hand. Obviously it looks like i played this hand terrible given what happened. His line caught me off guard since i never seen this from anyone before. Its ok to throw in some c/r with 4x and 55-88. especially very small c/r.

I'd be surprised if you catch even a 1% of bluffs here on the river by ishter

lol, someone told me something about ishter11 off the table that made me end up calling

I ran a sim on this using the preflop ranges from Simple Postflop pack.

Gave both players available bet sizes of 25%, 75% and 150% on each street and one check raise size of 2/3rds pot. I forced oop to check on the flop.

UTG cbet strategy:
25%: never
75%: 82.15% of range
150%: 17.85% of range

BB defense vs 75% cbet (Since that's most frequent):
Fold: 49.17% of range
Call: 43.75% of range
Check raise: 7.09% of range - 44 check raises 30.02% of the time, 22 check raises 44.01% of the time, A2s check raises every time, but it only has 17.2% weighting preflop as it often folds and sometimes 3bets. 65s, A3s, A5s are the most common bluffs, with occasional suited broadways with backdoor flush draws thrown in. 55-88 are very seldom check raising in the sim, less than 7% for each, 99-JJ check raise a little more, but still not that often. QQ+ doesn't exist pre for BB obviously

I would imagine all of these hands check raise more frequently against a smaller cbet size, such as the one Stroggoz used though.

On the turn the sim doesn't like the smaller size that ishter used, the sim is tending to go towards checking or betting 75% in his shoes. No matter the sizing, the sim just flats aces 100% of the time on the turn in UTG's shoes. Kings prefers to raise in UTG's shoes, which makes sense as it doesn't block the A3s and A5s bluffs and is more vulnerable. QQ and JJ are 3betting flop a decent amount in UTG's shoes too.



Outside of the Simple Postflop stuff, question for Stroggoz, with ~$400 behind on the river and ~$330 in the pot, do you not think jam is superior to the river line you took? If not, why?

i think i shoulda minraise turn and check back river in retrospect. A minraise would force a cheap showdown or a turn 3bet from them which will be hard for them to play in a balanced way. Prob fayth is correct in that frequencies are very imbalanced on the river, I think its the worst hand i've played at z500 so far .

It was a very weird hand, my perception of ishter11 was that he is a pretty good reg at this limit, i didn't really think 1/3 sizing with a boat would be a possibility because you risk losing tons of value vs overpairs, and i expect an overbet on turn after a flop c/r with their boats a lot of the time. I almost called vs that small size, the only thing that made me raise was the fact that i blocked an A2s combo.


To answer your question, no it isn't better to jam $400. It's very unlikely worse will call vs that size. And also if Fayth is correct, then the smaller size of $200 people are playing worse vs it. They are not c/r bluff at correct frequencies ever. Take a look at the solver and you'll see bluffing at correct frequency vs that river $200 is very difficult. The $200 bet forces more mistakes.

I quite like the SPF flop cbet strategy and i think overbetting the flop here would be good with all the suited connectors and 55-JJ type hands.

Biggest problem I have with solvers is just how sensitive they are to small changes in ranges though, I'd imagine a reasonable change in flop sizing/frequencies for UTG even if you just add A2s @ 100% weight instead of 17.2%.

Thoughts regarding jamming were a) if he has worse on the turn such that a value bet is good at all we need him to hero call either way and i think he's fairly inelastic to sizing, b) if we're calling the jam off anyway and he isn't bluffing much then doesn't make sense to put in 400 when only bad and 200 when good (if he truly is fairly inelastic) - realise that this an argument to bet/fold, and that $200 >>>> $400 if he isn't inelastic c) personally if i was bluffing i'd jam so jam would probably be my only sizing, but maybe it's not good reasoning. I do kinda like the idea of raise turn small to check back river, quite a lot actually. I think it's better with the more vulnerable value hands than aces though where you're only "scared" of river 3 or 5 and you block the A3s A5s combos anyway

Personal opinion is that all but the sickest (or worst) of players are trying to bluff at all for <minraise on river in his shoes. Seems extremely hard for him to have any combos he wants to bluff with and people in your shoes don't fold enough of their value range to the jam. I'm very out of touch with these games though, haven't even played professionally in a couple of years so maybe it's not like that anymore