this seems like proto just was confused as to what to do and shipped it out of confusion.

wat, no its a standard shove for value

sizing is really bad, he should just shove flop, or bet flop/jam turn. Yeah pio oop is shoving QTss on river here since pio IP will raise very thin against these kinds of small sizes on flop/turn.

open shove flop? what in the fuck, they are over 200bb deep

stack to pot size ratio . yeah shoving is fine, you can shove KK/AA as they are vulnerable, and you can balance it with hands like AhK, AKh. the IP flatting range just has so many straight draws, and flush draws, if you bet 1/3 size on flop here your allowing villian to flat with too many draws

i dont see how he is getting called by more than 50% by worse on river. He sized enormous pre and they are certainly deep enough that tuti will be showing up with some nutflushes and a couple others(not many obv) and then AA QQ JJ enough of the time to make this shove -EV. He likely only gets called by AQ when it has a heart.

He GTOwned himself

On March 19 2018 01:36 DooMeR wrote: i dont see how he is getting called by more than 50% by worse on river. He sized enormous pre and they are certainly deep enough that tuti will be showing up with some nutflushes and a couple others(not many obv) and then AA QQ JJ enough of the time to make this shove -EV. He likely only gets called by AQ when it has a heart.

i gave him a wide range since he showed up with 97s, so i included all the sooted broadways. If you call twice here with JTs/AJs, KJs, QTs, KQs, AQ no heart then fold to a jam ur gona be overfolding to a very significant degree.

This sizing PF is ENOURMOUS for a cold 4b and tuti is 3betting vs a HJ open to begin with. We really dont have to be too crazy defending here in terms of MDF. I am pretty sure AQo would get folded some % of the time PF also in favor of hands that play better. I mean if hes calling 79s what is he folding? It might be an exploit but not sure but id bet he is favoring hands with better playability

KK blocks KJ and KQ. AQ mostly is going to be calling down id imagine though 1 of those combos still beats us. if he calls everytime with Because of sizings id imagine he would be more prone to call with good draws on turn than things like KJ. he has to be folding something especially since only other hands to fold are ATdd and TT. With this sizing he has to have some folds on the turn and they are most likely gonna be his weakest made hands and very weakest draws. But OESDs and flushdraws are gonna be peeling. He is easily gonna have 6-7~ combos of flushes at the tighest. obv 79s would imply many more. QQ and JJ would likely always get played this way about 70% of the time depending on his shove strategy on the turn. which would probably remove some rly good combo draws too i guess. A decent amount of his draws get there. he doesnt have to call with KQ ever i would think when he has so many hands that improve to take their place.

There are MINIMUM 21 combos that beat us on this run out. There is NOT going to be 21 combos that call that are worse hands especially since KK blocks. even if we give him calling with 100% of KQs and AQ every single time. Thats only 13 combos we beat. I dont think its even close even if we add in every AJs also and Kjs and QTs possible. Thats only 20 combos) this is a trivial ckfold

AdAs, AdAc, AhAc, AsAc, KdKs, QdQs, QhQs, JdJs, JdJc, AhQh, QdJd, QsJs, AhTh, QhTh, Th9h, Th8h, 9h7h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ac2c

Notice i have 66% of combos of JJ and QQ included, only 66% of the time AA playing this way as tuti. And i did some wierd guessing with FDs to make it more conservative just giving him some of the most obvious ones and the 97hh randomly since thats what he showed up with.

Another interesting thing to note is IF tuti is 3betting 10% of hands here. Tuti still has only 113 hansd to start with. Considering he has to roughly call 42 combos of hands by the river for us to be breakeven with a KK shove. It seems pretty easy for him to fold out the extra combos between. ENOUUUURMOUS cold 4bet and 3 streets of betting. Even if it is smaller sizings.

EDIT: i guess i gotta include actually the possibility that maybe tuti is a station and this is an exploit

4bet size is standard and not big at all. really depends how these guys are playing, pio will be jamming a lot of flush draws on turn, but if these guys dont do it, then yeah its close, if i make it so not as many suited broadways are 3betting preflop, and they are playing more passively than pio, then there are only very slightly more weaker hands that call than nut hands that call.

4bet size seems to be a bit too small actually 250bb deep

4Bet is standrad and if its an "easy fold" with KK with the Kh then its gong to be rough to have a non exploitable river checking range

By the way Snowie plays it exactly the way Proto did, it's pretty clear on shove being higher ev than check

Oh and Doomer just because you can't get called by 50%+ doesn't mean you should check necessarily

On March 19 2018 01:36 DooMeR wrote: i dont see how he is getting called by more than 50% by worse on river. He sized enormous pre and they are certainly deep enough that tuti will be showing up with some nutflushes and a couple others(not many obv) and then AA QQ JJ enough of the time to make this shove -EV. He likely only gets called by AQ when it has a heart.

You're making the error of assuming your ranges are the same as hero's. Do you look at hands regularly from these stakes? Bluffing happens so frequently and hero likely has all AK w/ 1 heart, ATcc, KTcc, 9Ts, A4s, A5s.

Villain can call quite a few worse hands here.

Besides a flush, which, a FD sometimes raises at some point sooner, all hero is worried about is AA QQ JJ QJs.

Villain only needs 27% equity to call here...

Against that range, even KQdd has 33%....JTo has 31% ... even 99 has 27%.

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