Against a tight player should I just check call river or still shove river? Preflop is really close I actually really hate having AQ here lol, both flatting and 3betting feel bad.

how tight? preflop should be fine with AQs even if he has utg range instead of button
if he's really tight af I don't see a reason to bet turn with that size, seems like very few hands will fold

I don't really get the mentality of "just check call" river. That wording feels like you're implying that it's a safer option or something, but in reality you are still planning on putting in the same amount of money, except that only happens on his terms.

I mean I can understand check calling instead of betting if he has lots of potential bluffs or worse hands for value, but in this spot it seems to me he usually either has a bunch of pocket pairs, Tx flop floats, which are usually just checking back river or hands that beat you, which all jam. Check calling against that strategy is worse than betting. Check calling makes sense though if he's the type of player to call turn with, let's say, 44, and then turn it into a bluff on the river, but I'm not sure this really happens enough - especially when your read is that he's a tight player. I would anticipate lots of turn folds if he's that tight and likely not enough bluffs if he does get to the river.

I'm curious if GTO strategy utilises some block bets on this river. It's obv a river which really hurts the Tx, JJ-KK part of the 3bettor's turn value region.

If I'm putting my stack in on the river against most people in this population I would typically rather jam and hope he calls with 99, Tx, A3, whatever. If checking, I'm not even sure it's a profitable call against the strategies taken by a lot of these 50nl players.

He's pretty tight, 19vp. I kinna like blocking bet, even more than jamming, gets more call. He is too tight to call jamming with low pp on river I think sadly.
Agree check calling isn't that good I just couldn't figure out a good way to play this river in time.

So check turn, if he checks or bet small(call), then bet river?

yeah no question c/c is worse than c/f given the passive way people play these stakes. As played shove or if unreal nit c/f I guess

On May 25 2020 19:39 Oddeye wrote: He's pretty tight, 19vp.

doesn't say much, btn open differs a lot usually among nits and you need a good sample, he could be close to 40% and just be tighter from early positions
In which case I'd shove otr

He's not a pure nit but very close with very few loose moment. He's tight from the CO, slightly looser from button but really not much. I've played him a fair amount but he doesn't get too much out of line. I remember him bluffing once or twice over a shitton of hands but thats it.
Surely you've played this guy, he has a little hamster avatar.

I looked him up, I have 250 hands on him and he seems like 22/18/6.7 for me, sample too small obv

Ran a sim;

As SB, AQs is basically checking 100% on turn (Except for AdQd which is betting like 11% for some reason). AQo is betting a bit more though - about 38% across all possible suit combinations. On river SB strategy has check/25%/jam options and with overall range it's checking 52.12% of range, block betting 1/4 pot 11.62% and jamming 36.26% (Although the sizings on flop and turn led to a shallower stack to pot ratio on river compared to your hand). AQo is betting river almost always and is mixing blockbet/jam with most suit combinations. Has 43% river check with the AsQd combo specifically.

With 56% pot left on river KK is jamming almost always. QQ is mostly block betting. JJ is almost always checking. Tx hands are almost always checking, with some small bet frequencies for JTs and QTs. AA and ATs hands are basically always playing river as check. Most of it's bluffs are KQs KJs KQo some QJs. Worst hand it's betting turn with for value is 99, but is mixed.

IP never has AKs postflop in this sim, it's a 100% 4bet pre. It does have quite a high number of AKo/QQ/JJ combos from preflop though. But JJ mostly just jams turn in IP's shoes.

IP is mixing call/fold on river with the Tx combos it arrives at the river with, but mostly folding (Some KTs QTs JTs T9s), is mixing call and fold with QQ (Mostly call). Always calling KK and any A it arrives at the river with (A9s ATs AJs A3s AQs AKo AQo are all in there at some frequencies) or obv anything better. It mixes some river calls with 77-44. It's folding only 36.99% of it's range to the river jam.

Thanks you all, I'm still playing but I'll digest after session. What software are you using midian? it seems neat

On May 25 2020 21:25 Oddeye wrote: Thanks you all, I'm still playing but I'll digest after session. What software are you using midian? it seems neat

I'm using Simple Postflop as I've had it since it came to market in like 2015. Most people use PioSolver I guess and the best budget option is GTO+