Not sure about this fold.

He does have a tighter SB open. I'm basically capped to KT.



Think it's a good fold.. but not sure what he's trying to accomplish by shoving me off my hand - even if he does have the nuts. He's certainly not doing it for balance, I'll tell you that.

I could slowplay the occasional TT but never QQ+ I don't think.

Fold looks way too nitty - if you're folding that you're getting bluffed off of way too many hands. You essentially are calling with ONLY QT and KT, and those hands you'd be jamming over anyways. What hands are you calling with here? Additionally you have the As too.

Yea u right

Have not adjusted to overbets yet.

Ran a sim with 3 sizes per streets. The sim is never overbetting river in SB's shoes. IP is uncapped so it doesn't make that much sense for OOP to overbet.

Facing a 75% sizing, IP is calling AJ every time as can be seen in the screenshot.

I can imagine an exploitative fold being good here vs some people though, particularly if they're going to overbet into an uncapped range. Doubt people will bet worse for value with an overbet and people probably are underbluffing a good bit.

I do disagree on having any TT though in BB's spot, that should be 3betting preflop @100% frequency blind on blind.

How is IP uncapped when TT+ is always 3 betting pre? Doesn't that mean IP is capped to KT?


Appreciate the insight, yes I was trying to make an exploitative fold because I didn't see him bluffing there often enough.

If I'm in his shoes and saw an Ace shown, I'd be pretty confused on what villain had haha

Yeah, technically IP is capped to KT. The point is more that in this sim IP did not remove combos of his strongest hands on previous streets since there was such a small portion of raises, therefore he has lots of combos of QT/KT etc, and this doesn't incentivise OOP to overbet much since he is still running into the top of IP range quite frequently when it's slowplayed on flop and turn.