what do I do here on flop??
it's gotta be a check and fold to shove on most turns, right?

Personally, yeah. Shit flop

this is one of those situations where you're fucked no matter what you do imo

Interesting turn call

yeah, i was kinda assuming it was unlikely he had anything better than AQ

ill have to come back to this and do some checking of odds


edit: had mistyped. I meant AQ not AK lol

I would jam flop, this is a 4b pot and you have less than a potsized bet. You don't need very good odds to call a jam either considering how big the pot is already. I'm not saying you should be thrilled but I really don't like that you plan to fold alot here.

On February 28 2021 16:10 Oddeye wrote: I would jam flop, this is a 4b pot and you have less than a potsized bet. You don't need very good odds to call a jam either considering how big the pot is already. I'm not saying you should be thrilled but I really don't like that you plan to fold alot here.

I disagree what is Villians range. He play it well I would fold turn if he didn’t improve

Axss, ak,aq 99-AA

I don't think villain will have 99 here, I think he will fold preflop.

Assigning a range of AQo+, AQs+, TT, JJ, AJs weighted at 50%, and A5s weighted at 50% (just using it to account for any time he's getting out of line with a non super-premium hand), my turn equity is 42.376% which would make it an obvious turn call.

My flop equity is 36.6% and 29.4% of the time is a tie, so I think there is a strong argument for a shove there.
Even if we take away A5s, the equity is 34% and the % of ties goes up.
If we get called, we can expect to still win about 25%.

I think this flop play is very close, and shove may be better just for overall consistency in our lines? Long term it's not great to be the guy who obviously has AK after the check, I guess.


If I add QQ into villain's range, which I suppose is possible - maybe he doesn't 4bet it pre, we still win when called on flop 24% of the time. And turn is still a call with 38.2% equity. Though I also don't think he's just shove the QQ on the turn like that. Probably check again or bet small.


My overall analysis is that if we don't think villain has 99 or QQ in their range, and is super unlikely to be out of line (they only have premium hands), then it's probably a good flop shove. Otherwise it's probably a check on flop.
Turn is always a call.

u didint add KK/AA which is possible too. 3b folding 9s seems bad

Ya on turn once you check if you don't improve I think folding is good against this kind of range. 3b folding 99 is certainly fine in a squeeze spot once in a while. Also yes they can have KK/AA, mostly AA I think in general people are gonna jam KK. Shoving makes the hand easier to play and puts back the pressure on him. Most turns are gonna be annoying to play after a check.

I made a little typo

and you guys really call large 4bets oop with 99? seems like we would be better off just shipping it than calling.

i personally just flat the utg w 9s but i just hate 3betting/f with 9s. i like to play some postflop even oop

he doesnt have 99 here, no I do not call. I think flatting 99 is better here in bb, just saying that you still see it just like any hands in squeeze
Ya 99 feels like a snap call hand here, generally I wouldn't squeeze too light vs utg anyway

Line as played seems fine. Flop shove some of the time seems fine too. Prob hit rng and try and split frequencies.