I think your bets are too weak on flop and turn - you're not actually begging for a call. I don't know whether river is him valuebetting a king or valuebetting a flush, but I think that you should bet like $8 on flop, then closer to 2/3 or 3/4 of pot on turn.
Obviously in this one, you're giving 3-to-1 to a 4-to-1 draw, which means that to make it +EV, he has to get over $10 of you on the river, assuming he's behind on turn. But this also assumes that a) He has flushdraw, b) He never bluffs when he misses (you can't really call can you).
I think those are big assumptions which obviously can be made with a very good read, but lets say you bet $15 on turn. If he then bets $15 and you can make at least the assumption that he had the flushdraw, you can still make a crying call, hoping he's bluffing by betting $15 and still make munies.
Cut down his immediate odds to make his implied odds insufficient and to get more EV out of it.
Boyaya. |
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