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Handnr: 2018
Submitted by : Nazgul

PokerStars Game #3331399285: Hold'em No Limit ($5/$10) - 2005/12/14 - 12:59:06 (ET)
Table 'Luce' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: NYC_CHOD ($1834.75 in chips)
Seat 3: Nazgul18 ($2699.50 in chips)
Seat 5: lee69715 ($60 in chips)
Seat 6: JP123 ($1188.15 in chips)
C.E.J.1 will be allowed to play after the button
lee69715: posts small blind $5
JP123: posts big blind $10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Nazgul18 8h8d]
NYC_CHOD: folds
Nazgul18: raises $30 to $40
lee69715: folds
dothehustle has returned
JP123: raises $60 to $100
Nazgul18: calls $60
*** FLOP *** 8cTc5h]
JP123: bets $500
Nazgul18: raises $2099.50 to $2599.50 and is all-in
JP123: calls $588.15 and is all-in
*** TURN *** 8cTc5h3c]
*** RIVER *** 8cTc5h3c4d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
JP123: shows TsTd] (three of a kind, Tens)
Nazgul18: mucks hand
JP123 collected $2379.30 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $2381.30 | Rake $2
Board 8cTc5h3c4d]
Seat 1: NYC_CHOD folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Nazgul18 (button) mucked 8h8d]
Seat 5: lee69715 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: JP123 (big blind) showed TsTd] and won ($2379.30) with three of a kind, Tens

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Comments

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Nazgul    Netherlands. Dec 14 2005 11:00. Posts 7080

that just makes you go like what the fuck

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You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo 

pinbaLL    Sweden. Dec 14 2005 11:08. Posts 7243

He had a read on you and knew you had set too.


Twisted    Netherlands. Dec 14 2005 11:08. Posts 10422

heh

that's a nice way of overbetting the nuts


pooper-scooper   United States. Dec 14 2005 11:11. Posts 1127

Hrmm... I wonder what the chances of someone having top set when you have middle set is.

47 cards you don't see, and he must have (3/47)(2/46) = ouch 0.278 %. So about 1 out of every 360 times you have middle set, someone has em beat out... not so often (if no flush or straight on flop, and no pair). That is if I've done this right.

So if you have bottom trips, you are twice as likely as that to be beat so about .54 % of the time. Or about once out of every 180 times you have bottom trips someone has middle or top set.

Both of the above assume one opponent. Obviously if there are two oponents you are twice as likley to be beat.

Good... Bad... Im the guy with the Gun. 

anon   Lithuania. Dec 14 2005 11:22. Posts 5965

and won ($2379.30) ........... Lol

Doyle Brunson: Fights with your wife or girlfriend are not healthy for you bank roll 

Rhaegar    Bulgaria. Jan 13 2006 23:53. Posts 2586

This callculation is hilarious. If he's got an overpair, the chance to make an overset from the 4 cards is about 15%.Half for 2 obviously.

One very suspicious player 

 

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