Wow, why are you in the hand this long? Seems like you got lucky and maybe walked into a chop but this is such a sick spot

Reads are as follows:

He is solid, aggressive, reasonably smart. We only have maybe 15-20 hands together, but I was 1 tabling at the time and able to figure as much.

On the flop, I decided to raise for value here rather than call because I figured hes smart and knows I should be just calling with most aces. When he 3bets the flop, I am fairly sure now he doesnt have an ace. We dont have enough history to be 3betting an ace for value here, especially if he thinks I could be bluffing the flop, just calling my raise is clearly better, esp with position. This leaves us with 22, 66, A2, A6, or a bluff.

If I was calling the flop, I was definitely calling a turn bet here at least. The river 2 takes away the probability of him have 22 or A2, so I planned on check/calling any bet here.

Thoughts?

Most of the time, NOBODY bluffs on a dry board. 1 tabling may have gotten you into FPS (fancy play syndrome) where you think he is actually making a move, but he is more likely having a very strong hand. For the most part I fold preflop, check raise flop is fine, but I like check calling and betting the K turn (not that u knew a K would turn). Now that you are at the river, you must call any bet. I just think that most people NEVER bluff ace high flops, especially at the middle stakes. But looking at stack sizes, I think you can be right that if he's good enough (which means you shouldn't even be playing him) he will realize that you checkraising an Ace there opens up for a good 3bet bluff. I just think the percent chance that he is bluffing vs value betting a very strong ace, 2 pair or a set isn't there and you should fold the flop. Your equity against his range is something like 10% I think, maybe 20% max. Thats why we don't play weak aces OOP and why we don't build big pots with marginal hands OOP etc.

so what was his action?

On October 12 2007 14:02 Sixpeppers wrote: Most of the time, NOBODY bluffs on a dry board. 1 tabling may have gotten you into FPS (fancy play syndrome) where you think he is actually making a move, but he is more likely having a very strong hand. For the most part I fold preflop, check raise flop is fine, but I like check calling and betting the K turn (not that u knew a K would turn). Now that you are at the river, you must call any bet. I just think that most people NEVER bluff ace high flops, especially at the middle stakes. But looking at stack sizes, I think you can be right that if he's good enough (which means you shouldn't even be playing him) he will realize that you checkraising an Ace there opens up for a good 3bet bluff. I just think the percent chance that he is bluffing vs value betting a very strong ace, 2 pair or a set isn't there and you should fold the flop. Your equity against his range is something like 10% I think, maybe 20% max. Thats why we don't play weak aces OOP and why we don't build big pots with marginal hands OOP etc.

DJ, I have a ton of respect for your game, and a lot of what you said is true, but....

Like I said in my post above, most people expect me to just be calling with a hand like A3 here. Thats exactly why I raised. Now, when he 3bets, he certainly could have a big hand here, but I think hed rather be 3betting here if he thinks im bluffing, and he is in fact also bluffing, rather than just calling and facing a turn bet from me. Right? Why would he 3b for value when I have to fold pretty much my entire range except what generally has him beat. You follow?

As far as playing this hand oop, calling here isnt too bad. Preflop is so irrelevent imo. I am trying to work on my oop game as well.

He certainly wasnt terrible, but I thought I was plenty better, and like challenging HU matches anyways.

I talked to Clay about this hand, and he seemed to like my logic up until the river. He brought up a good point as this is a very tough spot for villain to bluff here. I think folding might be a lot better on the river now that I think about it.