Submitted by : asdf2000

PokerStars Game #5524017985: Tournament #27920691, $30+$3 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2006/07/11 - 11:05:13 (ET)
Table '27920691 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Dominoroma (4120 in chips)
Seat 3: Pioups9 (8250 in chips)
Seat 5: Zydoh (515 in chips)
Seat 6: asdf2000 (615 in chips)
asdf2000: posts small blind 100
Dominoroma: posts big blind 200

Holecards
Dealt to asdf2000
Pioups9: folds
Zydoh: folds
asdf2000: folds
Dominoroma collected 200 from pot

Summary
Total pot 200 | Rake 0
Seat 1: Dominoroma (big blind) collected (200)
Seat 3: Pioups9 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Zydoh (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: asdf2000 (small blind) folded before Flop

Good fold.

9 person sng im gathering

yeah
hand after i have aq, push, button calls with tens, i obv lose, and BB obv folds

so this k9 fold was a good play then?

want some opinions

this is a turbo btw

i sat for like 50 hands with nothing and literally no opportunities to even try to steal(unless i wanted to steal with j4off, which im not down with)

i dunno, i feel like i fold this but i wouldnt know the math or anything

id push this

I think this is good too. u gotta force the shoter stack to make the move here.

i guess it depends on the bb's calling range though.

the bb's calling range is snap call

ill try to do a smart answer to something i don't know about ;p

If BB is likely to fold weak hands (tight weak donky) which is probably not the case then its probably a easy push

Otherwise, if the BB is calling almost every times, which i think is very likely:

your probably winning 55-60% of the time if you push and he calls any two

if you don't push: you have 515 left
You push and win (60%): you have 1230$ left
If you push and loose (40%): you busted =/

then i guess u need a program to calculate exact EV but im guessing with a 1200 stack you get some fold equity for future hands and you might get back into this thing, while with a 515 stack your in a very bad shape, you have to win like 2 pots in a row since you wont have any fold equity.

I think its more profitable to have a strong 1200 stack 60 times than a 515 stack 100 times

EDIT: i guess an ok strategy could be to fold and try to scoop third place, but in that case im not sure pushing AQ next hand was good

go in all for 1230 with 9Ko or all in with AQ for 1030... i think first one is better

Im mainly posting to verify if i know anything about sngs, i don't think i can teach travis

despite the fact that most of the better players ive talked to seem to think that folding is better, im thinking maybe push is better.



but i certainly think not pushing AQ the next hand would be a bad play.

then i certainly think pushing 9k is good play....

I dont have poker stove with me right now (at work) but

AQ vs random hand, 1030 chips
or
9K vs random hand, 1230 chips

EV cant be very different

Note: i never said AQ pushing was a bad play, i said if pushing 9K is a bad play then i dont think pushing AQ is an excelent play...it seems pretty close

ur forgetting something

if AQ gets called by the button or the SB, there is a very high probability I have them dominated.

If I get called by the big blind, then the pot is for 3rd place and I am most likely ahead.

you're on the button in the AQ hand right? so the shorty already folded to you and you're pushing into 2 big stacks n'est-ce pas?

yes i think fraser is right

BB is calling u almost every times,
its possible SB calls you and changes the EV a little but it improves your odds of being busto anyways

AQ hand, the shorty already folded and therefore if you loose its auto fourth place, so the SB calling dont change a lot (might be wrong on this)

oh i guess it was 2 hands later with the AQ

Anyway to get back to the topic, to find exact answer i think u need some program called ICM(not sure) that will calculate exact EV of having 1230 chips in that situation and EV of having 530 chips, then find out exact % of winning against a random hand with 9Ko.

then % won * EV of 1230 chips
100 * EV of 530 chips

find out which is best -_-
I need to buy that program
Im guessing its +EV to push...

according to that program the k9 is a +ev push yeah

its costly enough better not be wrong

just curious, is it close or actually a very +EV push?

what's the exact name of the program?

i'd like to take a look at it

yeah, its better than a random hand and he's going to call with anything there. i'd push. you essentially have 3 hands left. not sure you can really wait for a more favorable hand.

But john you're not considering the fact that hes on the bubble, and there is somoene with a smaller stack than him. If asdf2000 outwaits that guy then he gets paid.

Not saying ur conclusion is wrong, just that theres additional considerations to be made

just look for an ICM calculator

i would push

i believe the k9 is a fold and it isnt close ill post in a mo

ok firstly bb is calling with any 2 cards here, so k9 is better than average but still less than 58% agaisnt that range, so we are bubbling right there 42% of the time. we can fold almost everything and hope that the other shortie does something stupid and loses a race. SHORTIE HITS THE BB BEFORE US this is obv massive so we are AT LEAST 50% to get 3rd by folding, whereas we have 58% chance of surviving the race and if we do we cant be more than about 75% to finish itm if we double.

in these spots pairs do so much better than k9


im folding the aq hand too btwm, the dynamics change hugely is we change the stack sizes very slightly here, if the other shortie has a couple hudred more chips then the k9 becomes a shove

nice thread travis

standard fold
ur getting called 100% so let the other microstack take a showdown

but teej have you calculated that with ICM or something

i mean yes, if you fold, your odds to finish third are obviously much greater but your odds to finish second or first are greater by pushing.

I dont have any program but if i estimate...

if you push and end up 1200 chips by winning your race, you will certainly be able to come back strongly and have a pretty decent % to be first or second with now a ability to steal blinds.

If you fold, your odds are now probably 3x lower to be first or second and you arent even guarenteed third place

one more interesting point to make


I cannot remember where the clock was at, but this was a turbo sng. It's entirely possible that the blinds could go up on my BB. Which would lead to me being allin on my SB, which would make me allin before the other shortstack.

On July 11 2006 08:08 asdf2000 wrote: this is non turbo btw

How could this not be +EV push - you're favourite over a random hand and those SnGs have idiots who might even fold there so that just adds to it. Kx is also good because he might call you with for example Ax whilst you're probably only 40-60 underdog.

You can calculate your equity with PokerStove (it's free too), but like said, you're a favourite over a random hand - here's pokerstove's opinion.
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.1881 % 40.78% 01.40% { random }
Hand 2: 57.8119 % 56.41% 01.40% { K9o }

You will need to double up eventually anyways, I don't see why this wouldn't be instapush. You're entering the dead zone and at the point you're giving worse odds for him than you'll be able to give anyone later so..

And trying to hang in there for the third place well... these very easily go so that the other short stack will take his stab with like 60-40 or 40-60 or whatever and double up and then you're beyond recovery. If you win here, you'll gain momentum and fold equity as your stack will start hurting your opponents - generally letting M fall below 3 is a nono - you should probably start pushing any two to make attempts at the blinds before that ;D

And even if none of that was right, it would still appear to be a push situation.. You'd be surprised how little it sometimes requires to get these donks to fold <3 -.-v

On July 11 2006 15:16 bigredhoss wrote: Show nested quote + On July 11 2006 08:08 asdf2000 wrote: this is non turbo btw

thats called "travis is really tired from playing lots of poker"


meant that this is a turbo

On July 11 2006 14:28 Floofy wrote: but teej have you calculated that with ICM or something i mean yes, if you fold, your odds to finish third are obviously much greater but your odds to finish second or first are greater by pushing. I dont have any program but if i estimate... if you push and end up 1200 chips by winning your race, you will certainly be able to come back strongly and have a pretty decent % to be first or second with now a ability to steal blinds. If you fold, your odds are now probably 3x lower to be first or second and you arent even guarenteed third place

this is just simple reasoning! u cant use icm real time, besides that is not of great use in these situations....in this situation its all about what gives us most chance of finishing 3rd shoving here is really bad, just try to outlast the other shortie here doubling up is of no significant value and we lose with k9 over 42% and are far from guaranteed itm even after doubling

hehe ok, just making sure

he's already in the dead zone

the question is, does ICM indicate that pushing this is into a near certain showdown is better than folding and letting the other midget take a showdown and then taking a showdown if we are still 4 handed

Independant Chip Model is an idea which calculates of the money value of your chips in a sit n go from the prize structure x the chance you have of finishing in the place. It's not a program, if u want a program for sits go buy Sit n Go power tools which do ICM type calculations for you~

wtf is EV anyway? sorry im a pacific islander dumbass who plays home cash games.

On July 11 2006 19:30 pcboy wrote: wtf is EV anyway? sorry im a pacific islander dumbass who plays home cash games.

Expected Value

it's so players can try and evaluate the long-term expectation of whatever actions they take in a particular hand by guesstimating hand ranges and using some math

very tricky id just say fold and hope the other guy takes 4th when his blind hits

aq vs 3 random hands is a 37ish%. of course, not all three hands would call, but you can expect at least one and youre only a 63ish% against one random hand. (numbers from pocket5's cardcalculator)

k9 vs 1 random hand is a 57ish%. any hand after this hand youll have even fewer chips. i dont think you can really hope to have a more favorable hand to push. if you dont push here, i feel like you might as well sit out the rest of the game, hoping that the other guy will bust.

but youre basically hoping that he loses his coinflip instead of you winning yours

my point is if you arent willing to push this, you shouldnt be willing to push anything short of a premium hand in the coming hands