I'd guess mdom's flop calling range is 22, 55, 66-JJ, 64, 43. He'll obviously bet turn with all sets, and this bet size looks very much LIKE a set since the board is so dry. If he thinks you're both weak-tight he might attempt a cheap semi-bluff with an OESD, but it's much more likely he'll take the free card. Not sure how often he'll bet TT-JJ here for protection.
In any event, I think you're in rough shape against his range, and I'm OK with a c/f here [especially with a third player in the pot.]
If you do decide to play the hand, I think c/c, c/c is a better line than c/r since he'll never call your c/r with worse [unless he has like 43hh or 64hh] and c/c, c/c allows you to extract more from his river bluffs. I'd need a bunch of additional variables in place to think that he'll be semi-bluffing here enough, though. |