why do these stupid fuckin regs get so lucky?

dumbass shoves ako 150bbs deep and fuckin sucks out on the river, fuckin great

lol? sounds like you need to be more tilted - that will help.
his play is fine. yours is somewhat questionable

agreed. u cant 4bet TT here and call a shove unless tobsen has been getting seriously out of line, but hes a nit at heart so i doubt hes ever shoving light here

its a tough spot and its good to fight back but i think u can find a better place to stick ur stack in

why is my play questionable, he 3bets light a ton, and squeezes very often, i was ahead the whole time until the river

nope, u were ahead once, preflop. the order of the 5 cards doesnt matter, u lost a 57/43 flip.

and its questionable because u need him to show up with hands such as 99,88,77,A9,A8 in order to show a profit on ur call

if u think hes turning up with those type of hands then its fine

On September 06 2008 00:05 Exhilarate wrote: why is my play questionable, he 3bets light a ton, and squeezes very often, i was ahead the whole time until the river

??? how can you think about the river? the money when in preflop as a flip, that's what matters to the grinder, do you know what EV is? do you understand EV vs a certain range? have you heard of pokerstove? G-bucks? http://www.bluffmagazine.com/onlinefeature/gbucks.asp

yea 57/43 flip, i was ahead when the money got in, so i don't see how my play is bad?
i know he squeezes ak 100% of the time cause he never opts to flat ak in that situation
so i chose to 4bet him to defend the squeeze, and call off a shove, but he ended up sucking out

if you give him a reasonable stack off range in pokerstove you will see you are behind and that you made a -EV play

this is why, ok for example lets say he has a pretty wide range, and hes shoving 99+ AQo+

u have this much equity against him

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.787% 52.95% 00.84% 407988108 6460296.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 46.213% 45.37% 00.84% 349628100 6460296.00 { TT }

however thats pretty unrealistic i think. i mean his range to squeeze is large, but his actual shoving range is probably going to be way tighter

so lets assume he shoves the following:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.346% 66.14% 00.20% 271824540 828360.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 33.654% 33.45% 00.20% 137471700 828360.00 { TT }

the maths works out u need to have 29% equity to call the shove on the river

so calling his shove was good, that isnt the questionable part. its the rest of the hand. as u can see, against both ranges you are behind, slightly in the first one and a fair bit behind in the second one

once you 4 bet, it is more profitable to call his shove then to fold. but its kind of like donating $40 to something, then having to risk more of ur money to win back that original money. this hand is pretty interesting though it would be great to get a discussion on it

thanks for the insight in this hand guys.