such a close river but he had a CS tag :<

i think this is an interesting equity analysis if he calls AK 100% and AQ 50% and his range is AK, AQ, maybe JcTc

So you don't include QQ and AA in his range?

im not sure I like this bluff, well actually if u think he calls w AQ-AK it might be good.

bluff??? what in the fuck are you talking about -_-

well yeah AA and QQ are in his range too obv

On September 18 2008 04:04 EvilSky wrote: im not sure I like this bluff, well actually if u think he calls w AQ-AK it might be good.

lol, it's not a bluff, and if it was a bluff wouldn't you want him to fold AQ-AK?

ROFL

nah i just looked at it fast and it seemed he can never call with worse, but actually if he does call w AK and half the time w AQ thats like 13 combos and there are about 10 combos that have us beat if we count out the chance he can ever have KK here so anyway its really close.
Anyway baal the preflop call is kinda loose no ?

i think he means value shove not bluff

well if he doesnt call with worse its a bluff if he does its a valuebet :o

it doesnt matter if he doesnt call with anything i beat this cannot be a bluff ever because he obviously wont fold a full house -.-

preflop is fine, i call with these hands always, its a loose flop call

oh yeah true point taken

Preflop is a pretty big leak actually.

yea i think preflop is horrible too especially vs UTG raise from a solid regular, it might be ok in like bb v sb vs a terrible opponent, but other than that i don't see it being close to profitable

as for the river shove i kinda like it given your read that he's a bit of a station.. only hands that seem plausible from his viewpoint are JcTc, QcJc, maybe a slowplayed A6s or 66, doubt he will expect you to have a naked 6, so he prob calls with AK and AQ often given you think he's a station. Though it is kinda difficult for him to put you on a bluff cause anything that gets to that river obviously has showdown value and you probably aren't gonna be turning Ax into a bluff like ever. So if he timebanks and thinks about it, he really should fold AK, AQ even though there's very few hands in your range that will be value raising, because there are even less that are bluffing, but if he's kinda stationy then it's good