good fold
this is probably a good fold
probably

whats your read there? set? if so why call the turn bet?

what did u put him on?

woah..

If you are gonna fold to a blank on the river why call a potsize bet on the turn when the board is paired? Do you have implied odds against AQ/KQ?

12 outs against AQ/KQ and 3 outs against a set.

way more than 3 outs vs a set

cause i have position on him and if a J comes in stacking a set 100%
he may slow down too
if flush comes AQ KQ slow down as well

On July 26 2006 11:38 straate wrote: way more than 3 outs vs a set

Not on the turn...4 outs I guess w/Q. If the 8 or 3 pairs then maybe but that could also be quads for the set..

On July 26 2006 11:40 BigBalls wrote: cause i have position on him and if a J comes in stacking a set 100% he may slow down too if flush comes AQ KQ slow down as well

Yeah but your calling a potsize bet for 3 or 4 outs? I dont think you have implied odds even if you can stack the set. I guess its about break even since you have a 10% chance to improve vs set (roughly) and about 950 to win or so.

Thats my point, if the flush comes you dont really get much more value from AQ/KQ and you have a difficult situation if the spade comes against a set.

uh if an 8 comes and he has 333 i win
i have more than 4 outs vs a set
and he doesnt have a set every time here
there are situations where a river flush comes and he slows down, or he has AQ KQ QJ and checks river fearing me having a full or something else
there is a lot to account here and pot odds arent everything

nomanirvana, you can't put him on both 333 and 888...liek i said, way more than 3 outs, and YES, on turn

On July 26 2006 11:47 BigBalls wrote: uh if an 8 comes and he has 333 i win i have more than 4 outs vs a set and he doesnt have a set every time here there are situations where a river flush comes and he slows down, or he has AQ KQ QJ and checks river fearing me having a full or something else there is a lot to account here and pot odds arent everything

Yeah, 3 extra outs for the board pairing that could give him Quads. What do you do if the spade comes or board pairs and he fires $350?

But I think you stack the set only if Q/J comes because he will easily put you on a Queen, if the board pairs you may have the best hand but he will know it and shutdown. Same if the flush comes and he has AQ/KQ.

Lets all give BigBalls a hard time about folding! :-P

On July 26 2006 11:49 straate wrote: nomanirvana, you can't put him on both 333 and 888...liek i said, way more than 3 outs, and YES, on turn

I know, but he knows you have a Q and you dont know which set he has...if the board pairs he is in total control and you are left in the dark.

so what
HE DOESNT HAVE A SET EVERY TIME
if he fires 350 and a flush comes im probably folding
im calling 100 to win 950 more when a J comes EVERY TIME HE HAS A SET
if he has AQ KQ and a flush comes i win and these hands are pretty damn likely
if another Q comes and he has 888, he will probably call some value on the end
are you honestly telling me youre folding this turn? lol

On July 26 2006 11:55 BigBalls wrote: so what HE DOESNT HAVE A SET EVERY TIME if he fires 350 and a flush comes im probably folding im calling 100 to win 950 more when a J comes EVERY TIME HE HAS A SET if he has AQ KQ and a flush comes i win and these hands are pretty damn likely if another Q comes and he has 888, he will probably call some value on the end are you honestly telling me youre folding this turn? lol

i couldn't agree more

On July 26 2006 11:55 BigBalls wrote: so what HE DOESNT HAVE A SET EVERY TIME if he fires 350 and a flush comes im probably folding im calling 100 to win 950 more when a J comes EVERY TIME HE HAS A SET if he has AQ KQ and a flush comes i win and these hands are pretty damn likely if another Q comes and he has 888, he will probably call some value on the end are you honestly telling me youre folding this turn? lol

I wouldn't fold the turn, im just thinking its EV neutral to call the turn at best and w/ many difficult situations on the river. Its not about whether he has a set everytime or not, I just mean that when he does he has complete control over the situation and you are calling the potsize bet with 3 outs to stack him, I dont think you can stack him with anything but the J. $100 to win $950 when you stack him (and like 7-8% chance to hit the J), and like $250 when you improve and he shuts down, maybe you get minor value from AQ/KQ when you hit the flush, I dunno.

Do you think he has either a set or Q w/higher kicker everytime?

Im not arguing against your play im just analyzing the situation. Seems like you are folding almost any river that he frontbets except for a J.
If he quads up will he let you know or just fire out and you have to call either for a split or cuz you made a higher boat?