Villian is 25/20 over 178 hands. I have no notes on him (shame on me!) and have only played a couple of orbits with him today. Neither of us has shown down a hand in this time.
On the flop, I check raise hoping just to take it down, expecting a flush or a set to shove, or maybe a set would shove a non club turn. So after I check raise( what do you think of my bet sizing?) the villian calls pretty quickly. I am pretty sure he has something, but what. Maybe a KQo with the King of clubs or KJ of clubs. His range must be pretty narrow here, as I don't percieve him to be a maniac.
The turn gives me a gutshot, Villian only bets, 50. Maybe I am up if I am up against KQ with the king of clubs I am getting 3-1 to call on a 68-32 dog so I should call, and if he has a set I am a 3-1 dog but should still call with a small, called bet on the river I am making a profit. The only way I am in big trouble is if he already has a flush. his small bet on the turn could mean this. He might be betting smaller because he only fears the nut flush and after my check it is not likely.
Soooo, I am a station so I call
Hmmm, the King of spades gives me the nut straight. So, now, what to do? Shove and possiblely value own myself or check call or check fold to a shove. A shove would look awfully suspicous and might get looked up light. I AM assumeing if he does have a baby flush he would never fold.
I would love to hear you thoughts on this hand.
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