Jam or pot

i dont like either option. if we jam we are folding everything but hands that beat us, unless he makes a hero call with A9 or KQ, and i think that is unlikely. he called turn which means he has a little something, and i think checking the river is just going to get a check behind so often. so i think you do have to bet, but even pot seems a little heavy to me. i like a bet of 15-18, about 2/3rds size of pot. this would probably get him to call you with a Q.

bet 1/3 pot.

On October 28 2009 23:42 chris wrote: i dont like either option. if we jam we are folding everything but hands that beat us, unless he makes a hero call with A9 or KQ, and i think that is unlikely. he called turn which means he has a little something, and i think checking the river is just going to get a check behind so often. so i think you do have to bet, but even pot seems a little heavy to me. i like a bet of 15-18, about 2/3rds size of pot. this would probably get him to call you with a Q.

Probably should give you info that villain is bad enough to call 15-18 with Qx.

EDIT: Oh wait that's what you said. I guess I meant like, 100% sure he's calling 15-18 w/ Qx, maybe even bottom pair.

well you can bet a little heavier, with the info on villain, i guess 18-22 then. i guess pot if you really want to but its just a question of is he really calling that much with something weaker than a pair of aces? you really do not want him to raise here, and you want to be able to get away from the hand should he shove on you, and if you put in so much when he does shove its going to be tougher to find a fold. so the bigger you bet, the less likely he calls with worse and the tougher to fold if/when he shoves. the way the hand played it seems like he is stubborn and wont just fold

The problem is I'm pretty sure he's calling an overbet shove with Ax (maybe like 80% sure). He's probably not calling a shove w/ Qx because (but there's still somewhat of a chance), and of course there are more combos of that in his range.

I don't think two pairs are in his range because he'd probably 3bet flop or minraise turn.

Potting might be a bit heavy on Qx though... which he should have a fair amount on the river. I'm certain he'll call 15-18, but maybe like 60% sure he'll call pot. I'm certain he's calling pot with Ax.

If he jams on me I think I'd be shocked, call and lose to A6 or something.