never, you are hoping to flip against midpair at best imo

does it change if i said that capdevilla always 3 bets here preflop with JJ and AQ AK

don't burn money

i think its a good call, but ill have to run some numbers

keep in mind theres 52$ in dead money and capdevilla is rarely strong here

Its a flip then if you are 100% sure.

Are you positive he wouldn't call just because you squeeze a lot?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.357% 45.45% 01.91% 295707348 12435558.00 { JJ-22, KJs-KTs, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s }
Hand 1: 52.643% 50.73% 01.91% 330097056 12435558.00 { KTs }

Oh wait he was in sb right?
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.914% 52.78% 02.14% 412100036 16675312.00 { TT-22, AJs-A9s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AJo, KJo+ }
Hand 1: 45.086% 42.95% 02.14% 335359964 16675312.00 { KTs }

The original raiser will have QQ+ some 6% of the time, I think many people 3bet 22-66 but lets keep them here for the sake of the argument

So purely theoretically speaking if you can really narrow down his range with large certainty it might be a breakeven call

Because this requires a very large sample and multiple showdowns I wouldn't play it this way.

and what about soren behind u?

Fuck it dude. Who gives a shit gamble it up sometimes. I doubt you're totally owned.

yeah he's not totally owned but this is bad and I know about bad,trust me

i think itd only be a bad call if Soren woke up with a monster

On December 13 2009 10:24 sniderstyle wrote: i think itd only be a bad call if Soren woke up with a monster

?
Dude you have do take into consideration the % of the time he will flat QQ+ here before you call.

Doesn't matter. Whenever you do shit like this you always river a king. Its a poker law.

well anyways it could set up some good metagame (right?!) but this is a pocket pair/Axs much more often than J9s imo and there's still a pf raiser left to act

results ?

On December 13 2009 10:30 Dogan0s wrote: results ?

On December 13 2009 10:27 Maynard! wrote: Doesn't matter. Whenever you do shit like this you always river a king. Its a poker law.

If he had AK he'd always lose to 66 or something though but KTs will always win. You guys need learn and trust the poker laws.

If he's taking a shot and other guy holds K9s he will lose. If he's moving down from a 2.4 shot and other guy holds AKs he will win. Its just weird how the poker universe works.

Submitted by : sniderstyle

***** Hand History for Game 36634124520 ***** Poker Stars
$200.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, December 13, 09:54:09 ET 2009
Table Clivia III Real Money
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: Hero $203.00 USD
Seat 2: Joopjan $201.30 USD
Seat 3: HDavil $200.00 USD
Seat 4: soren17 $258.30 USD
Seat 5: AceBonG $466.00 USD
Seat 6: capdevila $294.55 USD
capdevila posts small blind [$1.00 USD].
Hero posts big blind [$2.00 USD].

Holecards
Dealt to Hero [ ]
Joopjan folds
HDavil folds
soren17 raises [$6.00 USD]
AceBonG folds
capdevila calls [$5.00 USD]
Hero raises [$24.00 USD]
soren17 calls [$20.00 USD]
capdevila raises [$288.55 USD]
Hero calls [$177.00 USD]
soren17 folds
capdevila wins $91.55 USD

Flop (Pot : $428.00)

   

Turn (Pot : $428.00)

   

River (Pot : $428.00)

   
capdevila shows
Hero shows
Hero wins $429.00 USD from main pot

do you even need to use pokerstove for this ? really? ... LOL

On December 13 2009 10:27 Maynard! wrote: Doesn't matter. Whenever you do shit like this you always river a king. Its a poker law.

uahahaha

On December 13 2009 10:34 asdfman wrote: Show nested quote + On December 13 2009 10:27 Maynard! wrote: Doesn't matter. Whenever you do shit like this you always river a king. Its a poker law. uahahaha

coach me?

On December 13 2009 10:34 EvilSky wrote: do you even need to use pokerstove for this ? really? ... LOL

As in easy call?

On December 13 2009 10:36 dUUd_ wrote: Show nested quote + On December 13 2009 10:34 asdfman wrote:   On December 13 2009 10:27 Maynard! wrote: Doesn't matter. Whenever you do shit like this you always river a king. Its a poker law. uahahaha coach me?

I charge... a lot.

Edit: okay I don't charge anything

So if we forget about Soren having a monster,

My range of hands for Cap is 22-TT, AJs/os, some AQ
Against that range, I have around 47% equity

EV: .47(229) - .53(177)
107.63 - 93.81
+13.82$

im sure maynard cheated somehow...

On December 13 2009 10:44 kaisr wrote: im sure maynard cheated somehow...

I ALWAYS cheat.

On December 13 2009 10:42 sniderstyle wrote: So if we forget about Soren having a monster, My range of hands for Cap is 22-TT, AJs/os, some AQ Against that range, I have around 47% equity EV: .47(229) - .53(177) 107.63 - 93.81 +13.82$

some AQ? why not all of it?
why not KQ/KJ?
I think you are rationalizing a gambler's moment

cause he 3bets AQ and KQ a ton

but even if we include those hands, I still have 44% equity

.44(229) - .56(177)
100.76 - 99.12

1.64$

but yeah I might be rationalizing, though it makes sense to me now.
btw, here are his stats

capdevila:

VP: 24 PFR: 20 3b: 9.1
Hands 533

22? Have you seen him do it with 22? Also how do you exclude monster hands entirely from that range? This seems like a huge spew without a pristine fucking spot on read and even then it would be too close to tell.

On December 13 2009 11:14 EvilSky wrote: 22? Have you seen him do it with 22? Also how do you exclude monster hands entirely from that range? This seems like a huge spew without a pristine fucking spot on read and even then it would be too close to tell.

I see that you're trying to say but all I hear is "I'M A NIT"

yeah im wrong - was just spewing .. forget the thread

On December 13 2009 11:18 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On December 13 2009 11:14 EvilSky wrote: 22? Have you seen him do it with 22? Also how do you exclude monster hands entirely from that range? This seems like a huge spew without a pristine fucking spot on read and even then it would be too close to tell. I see that you're trying to say but all I hear is "I'M A NIT"

Are you sure youre not just hearing the voices in your head ?

Have you seen fight club? I'm edward norton, a pure nit. But surprisingly my brad pitt is also a pure nit.