PokerStars Game #37447400151: Holdem No Limit ($0.50/$1.00 USD) - 2009/12/31 9:00:38 ET
Table Ithaka IV 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: paulosz ($100 in chips)
Seat 2: DoC.LemOn ($202.50 in chips)
Seat 3: tilt439 ($26.90 in chips)
Seat 4: Pinto 1990 ($100 in chips)
Seat 5: Hermon2224 ($111.15 in chips)
Seat 6: LittleORK ($100 in chips)
Hermon2224: posts small blind $0.50
LittleORK: posts big blind $1
Holecards(Odds)
Dealt to DoC.LemOn
paulosz: raises $2 to $3
DoC.LemOn: calls $3
tilt439: folds
Pinto 1990: folds
Hermon2224: raises $11 to $14
LittleORK: folds
paulosz: folds
DoC.LemOn: raises $188.50 to $202.50 and is all-in
Hermon2224: calls $97.15 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($91.35) returned to DoC.LemOn
Flop(Odds) (Pot : $226.30)
Turn(Odds) (Pot : $226.30)
River (Pot : $226.30)
Showdown
Hermon2224: shows (three of a kind, Kings)
DoC.LemOn: mucks hand
Hermon2224 collected $223.30 from pot
Summary
Total pot $226.30 | Rake $3
Board
Seat 1: paulosz folded before Flop
Seat 2: DoC.LemOn mucked
Seat 3: tilt439 folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 4: Pinto 1990 (button) folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 5: Hermon2224 (small blind) showed and won ($223.30) with three of a kind, Kings
Seat 6: LittleORK (big blind) folded before Flop
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LemOn[5thF]   Czech Republic. Dec 31 2009 09:21. Posts 15163 | | |
So I watched Grindcore backshoving 22-99 and it makes loads of sense.
This was NOT a good spot for that though when I though about it later
A) small sample size
B) positions
C) raiser has 60 wtsd and is far from solid, I am strongly suspect he is not calling only premiums and this will be most likely-ev despite his 14% 3bet (over small sample) (The fact that he had KK doesn't mean/change anything)
D) we were 111bb deep effective, the PF raiser raised only $3 and the squeeze was relatively small
= > less dead money in the pot relative to stacks |
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93% Sure! | Last edit: 31/12/2009 09:58 |
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LemOn[5thF]   Czech Republic. Dec 31 2009 09:24. Posts 15163 | | |
Well, I have to learn somewehere |
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93% Sure! | Last edit: 31/12/2009 09:26 |
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LemOn[5thF]   Czech Republic. Dec 31 2009 09:25. Posts 15163 | | |
The spot in question was when a normal player raised BU, he called with 99 and bb squeezed (WAY more favourable positions)
| Show nested quote +
I love your videos, you are my hero Grindcore.
By the way could you please expand on the shoving of 99 (you said 22-88 are virtually the same) when we get squeezed?
Is this still standard if the original raiser folds?
Could you please expand on reasoning and your equity when shoving pp's that we called PF in this spot?
Many Thanks
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This is still standard when the pfr folds. When the PFR calls there's some extra dead money so unless he has a range that's gonna call twice, it's even better than when he folds. When he calls twice his range for doing that influences the EV (like him ever flatting AA there, or calling twice with 66).
95% of players don't squeeze mid pairs but only broadways Ax Kx some junk maybe and premiums or something. They'll call the backraise with all their premiums.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.504% 35.21% 00.29% 224290476 1863336.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 64.496% 64.20% 00.29% 408959940 1863336.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.260% 37.06% 00.20% 236051700 1286694.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 62.740% 62.54% 00.20% 398352000 1286694.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
As you see 22-99 are all the same hand. Lets say PFR folded, which generally makes it worse to backraise. If we jam and get called the pot will be 203 bbs so with ~36% equity we have 73bbs equity. We jam allin for 97 more, so when we get called we lose 24bbs. There are 18bbs in the pot. So we're risking 24 to win 18, so it has to work 24/(18+24) = 57% of the time. So if TT+/AQ+ are less than 43% of villains range, we can jam. TT+/AQ+ are 4.7% of all startinghands, so his squeezingrange has to be 4.7/0.43 = 10.9%. This range for example, is already 11.6%:
TT+,AJs+,KQs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+
Alot of people will also squeeze suited aces, suited kings/queens, some more offsuit aces etc. It's almost impossible for a reg not to squeeze 10.9% in BB v BU/SB so we can pretty much always shove 22+ unless we have a better read telling us not to.
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93% Sure! | Last edit: 31/12/2009 09:28 |
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def_jammer   Germany. Dec 31 2009 10:02. Posts 1227 | | |
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LemOn[5thF]   Czech Republic. Dec 31 2009 10:05. Posts 15163 | | |
| On December 31 2009 09:02 def_jammer wrote:
blablabla |
So you think its +ev shove still? |
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93% Sure! | Last edit: 31/12/2009 10:06 |
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CrownRoyal   United States. Dec 31 2009 10:14. Posts 11385 | | |
| On December 31 2009 09:05 LemOn[5thF] wrote:
So you think its +ev shove still?
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might as well shove 78s here, your cards dont matter |
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LemOn[5thF]   Czech Republic. Dec 31 2009 10:15. Posts 15163 | | |
| On December 31 2009 09:14 CrownRoyal wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 31 2009 09:05 LemOn[5thF] wrote:
| On December 31 2009 09:02 def_jammer wrote:
blablabla |
So you think its +ev shove still?
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might as well shove 78s here, your cards dont matter |
Of course they do |
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LemOn[5thF]   Czech Republic. Dec 31 2009 10:16. Posts 15163 | | |
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.205% 31.00% 00.20% 131649548 863250.00 { 87s }
Hand 1: 68.795% 68.59% 00.20% 291275344 863250.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.090% 35.82% 00.27% 228193296 1690074.00 { 33 }
Hand 1: 63.910% 63.64% 00.27% 405403644 1690074.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
You are using your PF EV in the EV equation for the shove, he has to fold larger % of the time when you shove 78s |
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93% Sure! | Last edit: 31/12/2009 10:18 |
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CrownRoyal   United States. Dec 31 2009 10:20. Posts 11385 | | |
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LemOn[5thF]   Czech Republic. Dec 31 2009 10:21. Posts 15163 | | |
| On December 31 2009 09:20 CrownRoyal wrote:
your ranges are so bad |
Those are Grindcore's ranges, what calling range do you assign to a squeezer when he gets backdoor shoved? |
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93% Sure! | Last edit: 31/12/2009 10:21 |
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CrownRoyal   United States. Dec 31 2009 10:21. Posts 11385 | | |
your hand is faceup, if someone is squeezing only that range you're losing so much money even thinking about this. |
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LemOn[5thF]   Czech Republic. Dec 31 2009 10:22. Posts 15163 | | |
| On December 31 2009 09:21 CrownRoyal wrote:
your hand is faceup, if someone is squeezing only that range you're losing so much money even thinking about this. |
That is his CALLING range, please read the quote in the third post......
And I strongly disagree that in my example my hand is face up, the original raiser is a nit with 100% fold to 3bet so far, I flat all monsters a decent amount of the time, which is obvious to anyone who realises whats goiong on |
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93% Sure! | Last edit: 31/12/2009 10:27 |
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Fox   . Dec 31 2009 17:44. Posts 3110 | | |
I think it's ok to shove once in a while with random hands. However i do agree with crown to a point where it doesn't matter what you shove if you are shoving with 33 here. Personaly i 4 bet here to like 25 or so (he's oop) and if he shoves i can probably just fold. If he has a very strong range he's calling your 33 shove obviously and you're big behind so why not just 4 bet and fold once he shoves, few people at NL100 are 5 bet shoving you at this point with air. I really think you have merrit with trying new things and all but sometimes you might be over analyzing hands and talking to much in a vacuum. Also if someone is squeezing with the range you're showing us here and they also percieve you as a huge aggro junkie then this is really bad. If i think you're an aggro monster i'm gonna snap you with AQ and 99+ in a lot of situations and if you're shoving with 33 here? I really think 4 bet is better. |
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LikeASet   United States. Dec 31 2009 20:01. Posts 2113 | | |
small sample size.
end of story... |
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LemOn[5thF]   Czech Republic. Jan 01 2010 16:53. Posts 15163 | | |
| On December 31 2009 16:44 Fox wrote:
I think it's ok to shove once in a while with random hands. However i do agree with crown to a point where it doesn't matter what you shove if you are shoving with 33 here. Personaly i 4 bet here to like 25 or so (he's oop) and if he shoves i can probably just fold. If he has a very strong range he's calling your 33 shove obviously and you're big behind so why not just 4 bet and fold once he shoves, few people at NL100 are 5 bet shoving you at this point with air. I really think you have merrit with trying new things and all but sometimes you might be over analyzing hands and talking to much in a vacuum. Also if someone is squeezing with the range you're showing us here and they also percieve you as a huge aggro junkie then this is really bad. If i think you're an aggro monster i'm gonna snap you with AQ and 99+ in a lot of situations and if you're shoving with 33 here? I really think 4 bet is better. |
You wouldn't 3bet 99 and if you are snapping me with AQ and TT+ than the shove is always profitable if you have a reasonable squeezing range 10.9%+ |
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93% Sure! | Last edit: 01/01/2010 16:54 |
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Eluflop   Estonia. Jan 01 2010 23:09. Posts 3835 | | |
i think this is pretty bad here, the best call you are facing is a coin flip. |
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