how do you proceed?
villain is tight reg like 18/15 40% steal I think
if you call, what do you do on a turn like Jc, and he 2barrels?
Do you raise flop ever? What do you do if he calls and x's Jc turn?

i think this is a pretty decent spot to monster up and raise flop, fire turn if called.

actually it's probably better to check turn if you hit your ace lol

i dont mind calling but just raise vs this guy

look, he's a nit, just monster it up this flop doesn't hit his range ever and he will fold anything worse than 99 anyway.

What if we are20bb deep, calling is better right?

maybe im wrong, but since its blind vs blind i'd raise almost always

what about after we raise and he flats? what do we keep betting on? do you think he is ever planning to fold to a 2nd, or call a 2nd and fold to a 3rd?

shit i cant see the hand anymore, only the comments, cos i found this from the "your posts" page on lp

but from memory it was QQ6 flop?

if you raise and he flats it depends on a few things (in my humble not saying im nescessarily right opinion)

1) what was his range preflop?

2) how often does he normally fold to a raise? (i actually use the "fold cbet to raise flop" stat since its handy, but u can probably figure it out by looking at his fold to cbet and using that as a rough estimate)

3) how would he probably play a Q here? would he most likely flat? id normally assume a queen would flat here, as well as TT-AA, since its a hard board to get value with and from his point of view, he's better off letting u bet since he's either crushed or he's ahead but unable to extract value, so its better to let u bluff

if he was to flat here, i'd probably use timing tells to help a bit. if he thinks for ages and then insta-checks, its probably more likely that he has a weakish pair. so i'd be more likely to put in a big turn bet if he does this. if he insta calls and checks, that to me screams that he has AA-TT and is going to check/call turn pretty much always. so against that i would check behind and try and hit the flush.

if he just thinks for about 5 seconds, calls, and checks fairly quickly, i'd probably just choose the safer route and check behind.

4) if he does 3bet you on the flop, i'd probably just get it in. but it depends if you think he's aggressive mostly. on a paired board, a bet/3bet is almost always a bluff so you can get lucky and get it in against a lower flush draw sometimes. occasionally you'll be a dog to a Queen but its uncommon that someone would bet/3bet a queen unless you both hate eachother and have some kind of loose dynamic going on.

5) even if he does call or raise, i still think its showing a profit. just taking a guess, i would think he'd fold to your flop raise at least 50% of the time, maybe higher, and of course it could be lower since everyone plays different but on average im thinking 60-70%, if he doesnt think ur a complete aggro spewtard

so your probably breaking even just from getting the folds on this flop, and with the added equity of sometimes being favourite vs a flush draw, and being usually 30%-45% vs his Q or AA/KK hands, AND sometimes hitting ur flush when he flats on turn and valueing him, it ends up being a profitable place to raise

to be honest, the key thing to know here is what his original raising range % was. i cant see the hand anymore but from memory i think he raised on the cutoff? most ppl tend to raise between 15% to 35% here. if he only raised 15% for example id be a little more worried and possibly lean towards just flatting. if it was above 20% i think that would be the point where i'd prefer a raise than a call. there's other variables involved with a call too. it depends heavily on how often he bets the turn, and how often he check/folds the turn as opposed to check/calling. unfortunately there's no stat besides the double barrel % so its a bit harder to guage whether calling is a better move.

oops just read my previous comment, blind vs blind

yeah since its BvB his raise % is going to be a MINIMUM 25% here, all the way up to 50% for a nit type player, but some ppl go crazy with 75% and stuff. your best bet is just seeing what his open raise stat is from the SB.

since we can assume his range is wide as hell, im gonna stick with raise as probably the best move

thanks lachlan

the board was indeed QQ6 w my flushdraw bvb

I ended up raising the flop and I 2 or 3brl'd into AA, but I suppose I shouldn't be brl'ing turn or rvr. I just like bluffing too much bvb I guess and it costs me a lot of money it seems