unimportant stats:
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played lots of 2-4handed so numbers are pretty wide;
41/32, 20%+ open from all positions, 90% btn open
33% fold to 3bet from Btn and CO, 100% mp/ep over small (<10) sample
~400 hands total
77% cb flop, 44% cb turn; 37% fold to flop cb, 17% raise cb, 21% donk.
important reads/history:
villain is a tricky thinking reg; aggressive, good at handreading. Seen him make pretty big herocalls and thin valuebets (overbet-owned me and induced a light call, etc)
most of our history consists of him either owning me or owning himself (ie, assuming I'm misrepesenting my range and attacking it, when I just have it.)
I think the call pre is fine since there are no squeezers, dooley is a fish,
Flop I'm not sure if I like a raise more because I rep a narrow value range and he definitely knows it. Better if two tone?
Regardless, calling isn't going to be a big mistake and there are better spots (like when I've been running him over) to make a raise since he can't do very much.
Turn facing his c/r (I think it's a mandatory bet since he's giving up a lot), ranges? Some kind of AQ gutshot, turned hearts, funky played set?
He can definitely put me on floats that will bet turn a lot, so I give him credit for possibly having a value hand or bluff....combos wise the bluffs are a lot more.
And I'm unsure given the gameflow if he can really even have sets here.
Given our history a 3bet reps like JJ and TT...I think I'll just get reshipped on a lot and have to call it off with Khi, sometimes against Ahi..
On the river I feel like he should ship his sets/twopairs, but I'm basing that more on the way I think I'd play against myself than anything I know about his river tendencies..
Giveup? Ship to fold out Ahi?
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