--- Nuked ---

Could villain be possibly taking this line to value shove AJ/QJ or is this always JJ/T9ss?

Call, wtf.

i'd say his valuing range is AJ, QJ, T9s, and possibly JJ. FYL if you think this for value

I guess it was a bad fold.

you did what?

On September 23 2010 17:33 LemOn[5thF] wrote: you did what?

Honestly I think without a really specific read on villain this has to be a call 100% of the time.

VPIP & 3-bet percentage of villain?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

11 games 0.044 secs 250 games/sec

Board: Jh Ad Js Qs 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.545% 54.55% 00.00% 6 0.00 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 45.455% 45.45% 00.00% 5 0.00 { AA, JJ, AJs, Ts9s, AJo }

does he always 3bet AA JJ? if he does then:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

7 games 0.005 secs 1,400 games/sec

Board: Jh Ad Js Qs 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 85.714% 85.71% 00.00% 6 0.00 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 14.286% 14.29% 00.00% 1 0.00 { AJs, Ts9s, AJo }

he probably has air some small % too

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.462% 38.46% 00.00% 5 0.00 { AA, JJ, AJs, QJs, Ts9s, AJo, QJo }
Hand 1: 61.538% 61.54% 00.00% 8 0.00 { QdQh }

i'd write something in the chat like "this is such horse shit" and then call. that way when you're beat you look like a genius, and when you're good everyone thinks youre an asshole. win. win. win. me too. i win for having successfully mediated a conflict at work.

here was my thinking.

we're 215 bb deep and he check raised the river with a huge overbet shove. I have no stats on him since its rush and I havent installed HEM since I reinstalled windows but I quickly PTRed him and he looks to be a breakeven reg over 400K+ hands. So while he's not a great player, he is not a total fish either. I've played a ton of NL100 over the years and the vast majority of regs at this limit are not capable of shoving here as a bluff. therefore, I'm certain he's shoving for value. If he has AJ/QJ, then after my turn check raise, he's at least gotta be slightly concerned that I might have AA/QQ since that is definitely part of my range. Him taking the line where he check raises the river with a massive overbet with AJ/QJ is clearly a line where he only gets called by hands by better and never by worse.

I could be wrong and thats why I would like the feedback of players that actually play this limit or higher, but based on my experience, the vast majority of NL100 regs playing deep without any history don't take this line without the stone cold nuts. Unless he's bluffing which I'm sure he is not, his line wants a me to call on the river, and I can't see him wanting me to call on that board if he has QJ. Does he really think I'll call there with a K high flush? I can't see QJ in his range and while AJ could be in his range, I think it's more heavily weighted to JJ/T9ss.

Never fold rarely ahead. Folding this will cost you more in latent tilt dollars anyway.

crazy hand. not sure what to do

wut

On September 23 2010 18:18 Bigbobm wrote: wut

I've played so little poker lately that maybe I've got the wrong read. Bob, you play a lot of rush NL100. Do regs really take this line with AJ/QJ 215 bb deep?

fail to see how this is even close

On September 23 2010 18:26 TalentedTom wrote: fail to see how this is even close

ok TT has spoken, i'm a retard, end of discussion.

AJ, QJ, J8, flushes sometimes. AA and JJ both extremely rare here as they usually 3bet.

this is a bad fold fo sho

On September 23 2010 18:32 YoMeR wrote: AJ, QJ, J8, flushes sometimes. AA and JJ both extremely rare here as they usually 3bet. this is a bad fold fo sho

In all my years of playing NL100, I have never seen a breakeven or better reg take this line 200bb+ deep with a flush unless there was history or they were massively tilting. Of course I've seen fish take this line with much worse but NL100 regs tend to play very predictable and whenever they take this line, it seems as though its the nuts or second nuts like 90% of the time. Being that I had the 4th nuts, my gut told me I was beat.

On September 23 2010 18:38 TenBagger wrote: Show nested quote + On September 23 2010 18:32 YoMeR wrote: AJ, QJ, J8, flushes sometimes. AA and JJ both extremely rare here as they usually 3bet. this is a bad fold fo sho In all my years of playing NL100, I have never seen a breakeven or better reg take this line 200bb+ deep with a flush unless there was history or they were massively tilting. Of course I've seen fish take this line with much worse but NL100 regs tend to play very predictable and whenever they take this line, it seems as though its the nuts or second nuts like 90% of the time. Being that I had the 4th nuts, my gut told me I was beat.

even if this is true you can still have a flush so he can c/r wider for value

Hand 0: 22.222% 22.22% 00.00% 2 0.00 { JJ, AJs, QJs, Ts9s, AJo }
Hand 1: 77.778% 77.78% 00.00% 7 0.00 { QdQh }

even if u remove qjs
Hand 0: 25.000% 25.00% 00.00% 2 0.00 { JJ, AJs, Ts9s, AJo }
Hand 1: 75.000% 75.00% 00.00% 6 0.00 { QdQh }

On September 23 2010 18:47 PoorUser wrote: Show nested quote + On September 23 2010 18:38 TenBagger wrote:   On September 23 2010 18:32 YoMeR wrote: AJ, QJ, J8, flushes sometimes. AA and JJ both extremely rare here as they usually 3bet. this is a bad fold fo sho In all my years of playing NL100, I have never seen a breakeven or better reg take this line 200bb+ deep with a flush unless there was history or they were massively tilting. Of course I've seen fish take this line with much worse but NL100 regs tend to play very predictable and whenever they take this line, it seems as though its the nuts or second nuts like 90% of the time. Being that I had the 4th nuts, my gut told me I was beat. even if this is true you can still have a flush so he can c/r wider for value

but breakeven villain jammed 200bbs on river, i think it's close

On September 23 2010 18:47 PoorUser wrote: Show nested quote + On September 23 2010 18:38 TenBagger wrote:   On September 23 2010 18:32 YoMeR wrote: AJ, QJ, J8, flushes sometimes. AA and JJ both extremely rare here as they usually 3bet. this is a bad fold fo sho In all my years of playing NL100, I have never seen a breakeven or better reg take this line 200bb+ deep with a flush unless there was history or they were massively tilting. Of course I've seen fish take this line with much worse but NL100 regs tend to play very predictable and whenever they take this line, it seems as though its the nuts or second nuts like 90% of the time. Being that I had the 4th nuts, my gut told me I was beat. even if this is true you can still have a flush so he can c/r wider for value

my entire line of reasoning is predicated on the assumption that breakeven or marginally winning NL100 regs play a similar unimaginative style. It is easy for me to describe that style since I am one myself.

If he can never have a flush, then he knows I can never call his shove with a flush. If I can't call with a flush and he's taking this line with QJ, then he's basically turning his hand into a bluff since there isn't a single hand that QJ beats that will call his shove. With a hand like QJ, he'll just raise it up a standard amount to like 80ish since I might call a small raise with a flush. Even if he had AJ, the only hand that he beats that another weak tight NL100 reg might call his shove with is QJ, while AA/QQ/JJ/T9ss all beat him. weak tight NL100 regs have a fraction of the balls that an aggro higher stakes player like PU has. I dunno, I'm pretty sure that this fold is wrong since a lot of the better players are saying so but its just so rare to see a weak tight NL100 reg overbet shove 200bb without the nuts. the whole reason why we're still marginal NL100 players is cuz we are massive pussies that will never put 200bb in on the river without the nuts.

On September 23 2010 18:32 YoMeR wrote: AJ, QJ, J8, flushes sometimes. AA and JJ both extremely rare here as they usually 3bet. this is a bad fold fo sho

I think most NL100 breakeven weak tight regs will flat from the blinds with JJ when 215 bb deep. We just want to see a cheap showdown or possibly bink a set without inflating the pot oop when 215 bb deep. NL100 breakeven weak tight regs become massive pussies when eff stacks become 200bb or more. I know that there is only 1 combo of JJ and 1 combo of T9ss but I still thought that made a bigger part of his range with this line than the 6 combos of AJ.

i don't think you should just assume he is weaktight
there are breakeven players that are complete maniacs

I pooped myself a bit when you told you folded this. It's interesting tho, I don't think anyone even folds top pair on these stakes.

Just a thought tho - how often do you check that flop behind with AA/AJ/JJ this deep? And how often would you bet your air here?

tbh i see a lot of people take some pretty ridic value lines deep, reg or not. i never fold here