Calls one street on overcard usually and then folds to standard bet, I thought his range will be 7X, 55-TT, 56, AX.
I expect him to lead turned AX about 20-30% of the time.

This still sucks because he does peel A high and calls a lot of them PF, and getting $12 from AX should bring more value then $4 from 7X+pp + occasional spazz right?

My instinctive play therefore makes sense, but is not optimal because he will peel AX like very time on flop.

Results: Max value from his hand (apart from turn sizing-must be bigger), sub-optimal play against his range. My instinctive thinking is too fancy.
Agreed?
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I like the river bet a lot.

Even when he calls A7o+ all AXs preflop (apart from AJ/Q+, I think he 3bets them) and on flop almost 100% of the time?

I am not sure, I'd have to count all combos that he can have. Coule be nice math exercise. I'm off to pub game now though, I might do it if I have spare time ;o

It will depend on how many 7X combos he is likely to call pre

On January 12 2011 11:57 LemOn[5thF] wrote: I expect him to lead turned AX about 20-30% of the time.

is this based on your history with this player or just an assumption about this type of player in general?

Results: Max value from his hand (apart from turn sizing-must be bigger), sub-optimal play against his range. My instinctive thinking is too fancy. Agreed?

agreed

showdowns+m y estimate

Or you can say he is the player that 'sometimes donks sometimes doesn't' and I didn't see him do it on AX yet and am not sure what he does with A weak kicker. Hence the 20-30%

I would bet like 6.50 - 7.50 on that river, He can call Ax, 88,99,TT,JJ, maybe 78, 67 if he thinks your full of shit. Any missed draws prob just fold. By betting this size, it kinda makes your hand not look like Ax, and more like a PP or a missed draw or 7x, so he is more inclinded to call with Ax.

I guess your small bet induces a bluff, but as you said, 56 is only 1 hand in his range that he bluffs here, and he might call down light with above range to your vbet. Guess it depends alot. 4.50 might be optimal vs this opponent, but could be loosing alot of value in the long run.

Oh and also, i def open x3 as standard.

On January 12 2011 13:22 Chewits wrote: I would bet like 6.50 - 7.50 on that river, He can call Ax, 88,99,TT,JJ, maybe 78, 67 if he thinks your full of shit. Any missed draws prob just fold. By betting this size, it kinda makes your hand not look like Ax, and more like a PP or a missed draw or 7x, so he is more inclinded to call with Ax. I guess your small bet induces a bluff, but as you said, 56 is only 1 hand in his range that he bluffs here, and he might call down light with above range to your vbet. Guess it depends alot. 4.50 might be optimal vs this opponent, but could be loosing alot of value in the long run. Oh and also, i def open x3 as standard.

he will call 7x like always to this bet me thinks, and betting bigger will make him fold some of the time

I think you would be surprised. Besides 7x is a small % of his range here, there is alot of other hands he can call on river with.

On January 12 2011 15:33 Chewits wrote: I think you would be surprised. Besides 7x is a small % of his range here, there is alot of other hands he can call on river with.

What are those apart from PP and AX?

Yeah exactly, that makes up a big % of range that he will call. You are putting him 7x only, but forget about other hands you can get value from. Why target the weakest of hands he can possibly have, and miss out value on the slightly better hands he will call with?