Def overthinking. There's no way he's thinking about what you're checking back and what you're betting or what you're calling his check raise with. He only cares what his 2 cards are, and they're almost invariably a boat or the nut flush, snap fold. If he did bluff well played him, but it just doesn't happen enough to consider continuing here.
Anyway, if he was thinking about what you're betting or checking, why do you think he would expect you to check back? Seems to me you'd be betting almost everything you called the flop with with on this turn. You bet AQ in this spot, probably betting KQ? Maybe not QJ, but def Tx for value, a flush for value, AJ, KJ as a bluff, maybe like 89 or 99 for protection/some bluff component if you even call the flop with those, I don't see too much else what you could be calling the flop with, and amongst those hands you may check back QJ, maybe KQ and JJ if you didn't 3bet it? |