PRE
with the fish behind me I prefer broadways, but I guess A5s is good too with high likelyhood of regs coming along with the fish.
FLOP
Gutter, he will have all sorts of junk in his range =fold
TURN

RIVER

unsure. I will do a further analysis later. It seems spewy though

I expect him to call turn with something like :

99-66, AdJs, AdJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhJc, AsJd, AsJc, AcJd, AcJs, AdTs, AdTc, AhTd, AhTs, AhTc, AsTd, AsTc, AcTd, AcTs, KhQd, KsQd, KsQh, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdJs, KdJc, KhJd, KhJs, KhJc, KsJd, KsJc, KcJd, KcJs, KdTs, KdTc, KhTd, KhTs, KhTc, KsTd, KsTc, KcTd, KcTs, KhQh, KsQs, QdJs, QdJc, QhJd, QhJs, QhJc, QsJd, QsJc, QcJd, QcJs, QdTs, QdTc, QhTd, QhTs, QhTc, QsTd, QsTc, QcTd, QcTs, AdTd, AsTs, AcTc, KdTd, KsTs, KcTc, QdTd, QsTs, QcTc, JdTd, JsTs, JcTc, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah3h, Kh3h, Qh3h, 5h3h, 4h3h, Ah2h, Kh2h, Qh2h

I discounted KQ by 50% as he should fold some on flop

or 109 combos
If he calls all T+
AdJs, AdJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhJc, AsJd, AsJc, AcJd, AcJs, AdTs, AdTc, AhTd, AhTs, AhTc, AsTd, AsTc, AcTd, AcTs, KhQd, KsQd, KsQh, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdJs, KdJc, KhJd, KhJs, KhJc, KsJd, KsJc, KcJd, KcJs, KdTs, KdTc, KhTd, KhTs, KhTc, KsTd, KsTc, KcTd, KcTs, KhQh, KsQs, QdJs, QdJc, QhJd, QhJs, QhJc, QsJd, QsJc, QcJd, QcJs, QdTs, QdTc, QhTd, QhTs, QhTc, QsTd, QsTc, QcTd, QcTs, AdTd, AsTs, AcTc, KdTd, KsTs, KcTc, QdTd, QsTs, QcTc, JdTd, JsTs, JcTc
or 74 combos

If he folds T as well
AdJs, AdJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhJc, AsJd, AsJc, AcJd, AcJs, KhQd, KsQd, KsQh, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdJs, KdJc, KhJd, KhJs, KhJc, KsJd, KsJc, KcJd, KcJs, KhQh, KsQs, QdJs, QdJc, QhJd, QhJs, QhJc, QsJd, QsJc, QcJd, QcJs
Or 35 combos

I need him to fold 53.7% of the time, the profitability of the river basically depends on him folding a T, if he won't I set money on fire.
Is hoping an unknown fish will fold a T to this bet a lot at all reasonable?


Results: KQo