riv bet screams value call me! think u can release that there

he seemed like a very aggro fish, I thought there is more value in bluffcatching, I can raise turn depending on his betsize and do all sorts of stuff on later streets, and I'd hate my life against a check raise.

The turn comes and he checks twice... I just didn't know y he would check twice with value hands, seems like a random spazz and you know...Getting a read like this one will make him so easy to play against and I can destroy him completely with this information as he donks a lot

1) is the flop check reasonable?
2) Is the calldown ok ? I expect it to be slightly -EV but only slightly, he's a tard and has to spazz just 25% of the time on the river, and the read I got is just great

i don't really like flop check except vs the biggest spazzes. i dunno, you only have 16 hands on him, it would have to be a pretty spazzy sequence of hands to make me want to check, but maybe they were.

i like river call but i'm a station -.-

Yeah he was spewy and played 14/16 hands

I don't fully grasp how you apply Bayesian probability to this he will be a spewmonkey ~70%++ of the time even based on the limited sample we got for sure

well yuo didn't say anything about what he did in those 14/16 hands that was spewy~!

i mean obviously vs the majority of 80vpip whales flop is a slam-dunk c-bet, so he would kind of have to do something notable during those hands to make it a check. also i just realized i have no clue how AF is calculated.

post flop bet+raise frequency divided by call frequency

so if a guy has high VPIP and say 1.6AF and high WTSD he will be aggro with bullshit so often, but when a 10/9 has 4AF he actually can just nutpeddle and be pretty passive with air

EDIT: actually WTSD won't be accurate very, it's more like how often he continues past flop and generally when he missed

but it's bs over small samples of course, in this case as far as I remember he was clicking buttons a lot, I made a mental note on him that he does that but didn't write down any specifics

I feel like you just should cbet flopp and play it standard, I think that will earn you the most money in the long run from a fish like this