1/2 here i come !

On August 11 2011 17:01 MiPwnYa wrote: 1/2 here i come !

no, deposit additional funds and go back to 5/10

id rather not do that

whats your standard deviation? Like 780? :D

cmon, take your shit together. Your hands are the reason half of us visit liquidpoker

On August 11 2011 17:32 dUUd_ wrote: cmon, take your shit together. Your hands are the reason half of us visit liquidpoker

Yeah this, you are way better than NL200 so many people say that, this is the works of variance, I'm actually really interested in what is your standard deviation

how do I get that number ? :D

i use HEM

reports->select one (Overall is best) click on green + in stat selection, then under default stats there is 'standard deviation in big blinds'


click on it, save and it is added to stats shown when you refresh

145
how is this number calculated and how do I interpret that?

it's the square root of variance, it is the sum of distance from expected value for each outcome*probability the outcome occurs.

Bottom line is variance combined with winrate can show you how swingy your short term results will be. If you play with it and central limit theorem and normal distribution you can estimate the probability of winning/losing X per X hands. Or e.g. probability of losing AAXX v KKXX 10 in a row....

There is an automated tool for this that will allow you to show you maximum downswing/upswing possible and random walk results based on your winrate and standard deviation

http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/

This is what your value and I guess somewhat accurate 6bb or 3ptbb winrate shows for 100k hands for your std.



The thing is in a downswing most people play worse than usual so their winrate drops, if you also play looser than usual your downswings can get huge, especially with your standard deviation, and you can still be way better than opposition and lose up to 200 BI. Omaha is a bitch.


EDIT: Although you personally should crush 1/2 or 2/4 based on your rep and level of advice. That's why there is nothing wrong with moving down if downswings affect your mental state and winrate, presumably you should have higher winrate and as you outplay people more easily also lower standard deviation when you move down. I learned to mix limits together a ton and be very flexible as I know downswings do affect me a lot

P.S. take what I say with a grain of salt, I am no maths guy but I am going through mathematics of poker right now and I'd lie if I'd say I fully understand it, I didn't even get to the BRM chapter yet which talks about moving up and down and how many BIs you need etc.

thanks a lot that actually cheered me up tons
thx for takin the time to answer

I will never understand that game, ever.

On August 11 2011 17:13 dUUd_ wrote: Show nested quote + On August 11 2011 17:01 MiPwnYa wrote: 1/2 here i come ! no, deposit additional funds and go back to 5/10

Dude... no 8(

show us EV graphs sir!

On August 11 2011 21:36 dryath wrote: show us EV graphs sir!

why :O
AI ev graph doesn't show even half the story

EV graphs are not relevant at all.