this would probably be a good value line

Looks so bluffy. Can't imagine much he's willing to bet river for value to be folding. On the other hand such weak betting may make it closer.

U look weak by river and I suppose villain could possibly bet smaller here with strong hands as well though.

I don't think I like this at all

On October 09 2011 07:44 lebowski wrote: this would probably be a good value line

Id rather overbet the river

Considering this is button vs blind. shouldn't villain always be raising 2pair+ on the turn, and in that case can he really call a big ch/raise on the river with his 1pair hands ? I can see myself taking the same line for value some of the time with sets/straights, in order to make him bluff draws.

villain in the hand had a low went to showdown pct, which made me think that he would fold a bunch.

yea agree with all that, just think it's a little sketchy from a risk/reward perspective, maybe if he folds a lot it's ok i dunno.

if he's a solid/thinking/etc. player and views you as the same, i'd rather c/r to 50 or something since given how the action went, especially with his river betsize, it's reasonable for you to be c/r a little less polarized (ie including J9/JT, assuming you can't have T9 from flop action), i think he folds his QJ or whatever just as often to a smaller size, maybe even more often.

thanks for comments.

good reply bigredhoss. i think it was spew from my side. it's probably ok with a really good read on opponent and agree with you that ch/raise doesn't has to be that big.

he called with JT fwiw

It's not that you rep too little,it's just that it seems to me that the lead turn and c/r brick river line is so unfamiliar that most people would assume it is a spazz and would feel confused and inclined to call,especially after you c/c flop (therefore you have no sets in his eyes) and after villain bets less than halfpot for value on the river (regardless of whether he tried to induce or not). I guess some opponents will think "fuck I knew it's too thin to bet" and fold Jx , this isn't a black or white issue,just reference to experience,if it works it works!

Not a fan of turn or river. Turn is fine I guess if he'd make river super difficult I guess.

I like c-r this flop

especially after you c/c flop (therefore you have no sets in his eyes)

good point lebowski