I had some 20 hands, we got JJ v his AK in sb v bu and I lost.
I saw him call 3b and bet twice when 3bettor check with air.
He 3bet quite a few times, I raise pretty much every button.

So TT KK are almost never in his range imo=> flop an easy call. I was thinking about raising him but we are 200bb deep.

1) The turn: I saw Leatherass talking about how bad regs always check behind K type hands and he bluff check raises quite a bit in villain's shoes against floaty opponents. But is the check behind good or should I protect? I expect my hand to be almost always good here but there aren't many hands I can get value from.

2) The river
I expect an aggressive villain to
- bet his draws on the turn most of the time
- bluff at this card a ton with his air.
so...call?

i would fold river for sure. even though you have a small sample on him, the stats/reads you gave indicate he's some kind of reggish player.

usually when regs raise flops like these they have at least some sort of halfway-reasonable equity hand (ie they're not doing it with A6dd/76hh/etc). when you take that and also consider what hands an 18/15 defends from the BB, there just isn't that much you beat on the river, and it's probably unlikely he's turning QJ into a bluff.

disregard stats, he seemed a lot more aggro loose ish based on the showdown I saw and frequency, he just adjusted imo.

Say he's 28/23 11% 3bet v steal in these positions and plays 1/2 as his usual game does that change?

from my experience micros regs play turn rly bad and they dont often follow through with another barrel + its not a good bluff card anyway.

I think there are still draws in his range and his bet on the riv is much more likely to be for value. Not likely he decided to bluff again after checking the turn.

I like betting the turn smallish to protect

i guess it makes it more likely he would turn QJ into a bluff but i still doubt he's raising total airball on this flop. i don't know if i would assume he's always barreling turn with his draws either, it's a pretty bad card to try and make you fold anything.

On December 01 2011 08:02 eestwood wrote: I like betting the turn smallish to protect

yeah i think a small bet on turn could be good in this particular spot

bet the turn, if you dont bet one of the best cards in the deck im not sure what you were hoping for when you called the flop.