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Handnr: 928881
Submitted by : spets1

PokerStars Game #72188428465: Holdem No Limit ($0.10/$0.25 USD) - 2011/12/15 1:44:28 ET
Table Linzia III 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Davidcopariu ($11.87 in chips)
Seat 2: prodienst ($32.32 in chips)
Seat 3: kvilon ($25 in chips)
Seat 4: spets2 ($25 in chips)
Seat 5: Monteiro10 ($25.35 in chips)
still deep will be allowed to play after the button
Davidcopariu: posts small blind $0.10
prodienst: posts big blind $0.25

Holecards(Odds)
Dealt to spets2 As9d
kvilon: folds
spets2: raises $0.50 to $0.75
Monteiro10: folds
Davidcopariu: folds
prodienst: calls $0.50

Flop(Odds) (Pot : $1.60)

   9h5s8h
prodienst: bets $1.06
spets2: raises $2.19 to $3.25
prodienst: calls $2.19

Turn(Odds) (Pot : $8.10)

   9h5s8hAc
prodienst: checks
spets2: bets $5.50
prodienst: calls $5.50

River (Pot : $19.10)

   9h5s8hAc5d
prodienst: checks
spets2: checks

Showdown
prodienst: shows ThTs (two pair, Tens and Fives)
spets2: shows As9d (two pair, Aces and Nines)
spets2 collected $18.17 from pot

Summary
Total pot $19.10 | Rake $0.93
Board  9h5s8hAc5d
Seat 1: Davidcopariu (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: prodienst (big blind) showed ThTs and lost with two pair, Tens and Fives
Seat 3: kvilon folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 4: spets2 showed As9d and won ($18.17) with two pair, Aces and Nines
Seat 5: Monteiro10 (button) folded before Flop (didnt bet)

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Comments

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spets1   Australia. Dec 15 2011 13:27. Posts 2179

the guys is 26/15

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hola 

xicotaSLB   Portugal. Dec 15 2011 13:28. Posts 1128

why do you check the best river card possible?


spets1   Australia. Dec 15 2011 13:30. Posts 2179

dont know i was sorta scared thinking what can he call me with that he called flop and turn, was scared of a FH c/r or straight
and missed draws woulda folded the river

holaLast edit: 15/12/2011 13:31

TalentedTom    Canada. Dec 15 2011 13:35. Posts 20070


  On December 15 2011 12:30 spets1 wrote:
dont know i was sorta scared thinking what can he call me with that he called flop and turn, was scared of a FH c/r or straight
and missed draws woulda folded the river



thgats exactly why he was calling the river, cause every draw missed

Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light not our darkness that most frightens us and as we let our own lights shine we unconsciously give other people permision to do the same 

dUUd_   Estonia. Dec 15 2011 13:37. Posts 1840

you are too tight ! it's not your blog, tight is not right.

redsnuff: bets all in with bad preflop hand and tell me to learn poker redsnuff: senceless 

spets1   Australia. Dec 15 2011 13:37. Posts 2179

TT : ahh thats genius!

but whatshis range of calling me tho? TT, 9x, 8x?

haha check my stats in my blog in the leeeeft

holaLast edit: 15/12/2011 13:38

xicotaSLB   Portugal. Dec 15 2011 13:57. Posts 1128

its not your job to think about his calling range in this hand, the fact is all draws missed and he can call with many random shit.


TalentedTom    Canada. Dec 15 2011 14:24. Posts 20070


  On December 15 2011 12:37 spets1 wrote:
TT : ahh thats genius!

but whatshis range of calling me tho? TT, 9x, 8x?

haha check my stats in my blog in the leeeeft



i would say if I could see the cards face up I would not bluff the river cause I expect him to call a ton

Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light not our darkness that most frightens us and as we let our own lights shine we unconsciously give other people permision to do the same 

YoMeR   United States. Dec 15 2011 16:40. Posts 12438

this is an extremely easy bet/fold on the river.

eZ Life. 

Highcard   Canada. Dec 15 2011 17:11. Posts 5428

Yomer, there isn't any room left in stack size for betfold..........this is a shove the last of your ~$17 and start jerking yourself as you print money.

I have learned from poker that being at the table is not a grind, the grind is living and poker is how I pass the time 

Highcard   Canada. Dec 15 2011 17:12. Posts 5428

or bet $2 if he is a spazztard and call all shoves

I have learned from poker that being at the table is not a grind, the grind is living and poker is how I pass the time 

Silver_nz   New Zealand. Dec 15 2011 18:04. Posts 5647

I like how you are thinking of what can call you. Thats phil galfond thinking. Not thinking in terms of standard spots, but having reasons for your bet.
If you aren't going to get called by worse over 50% of the time, you can't valuebet the river. So its not enough that you beat one combo of TT if you lose to 30 other combos.

So its down to this: flatting in the BB, donkbet-call flop, check calling turn, what range will this tighfish (26/15) have?

It will be something like:
-marginals: 9X, 8X, 66, 77, TT, JJ maybe AK, AQ (let's weight with 1/2 of the 9X cause at 26vpip alot might fold pre, 1/4 of the 8X cause they might also fold the turn, and 4 out of 16 possible combos to AK, AQ becasue they might not play this way)
this type of players' mission is to make the nuts then bet and raise it, so AA, KK, QQ would 3bet pre. so they are out. (I am guessing he has about 3% 3bet)
-draws: JT, 56s, 57s, 34s, AhXh
-slowplays: 55, 88, 99, 67, 89 (weight these as discouted by 2/3rds as they would often have raised on the flop or turn)

each 2 card hand has 16 combos, paired-to-board hand has 12 combos, suited hands have 4 combos, pocket pairs have 6 combos

......................................................................................................9X........8X,....66,.77,..TT,..JJ,...AK,.....AQ
Here is what you can get value from: all of marginals: 120/2 + 120/4 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 16/4 + 16/4 ....= 122combos (/x indicates the weight for that part of range)
.........................................................................................AhXh
.............................................some (former) draws: .....12 ................................................................................ = 12 combos
.......................................................................................... 89
...........................................some of his slowplays:.... 8/3................................................................................. = 3 combos
.

.......................................................................................55, ..88.....99..... 67,
You lose to: .......................................... slowplays:.....1/3 + 3/3 + 3/3 + 16/3 ..............................................= 8combos
....................................................................................56s..57s
..................................................draws that hit a 5:...... 3 + 3............................................................................= 6combos


So your value bet on the river can potentialy get value from 122+12+3 = 137 combos. some pocket pairs and 8Xs may find a fold on the river so lets say 100 combos that actually call.
vs 8 combos that call or raise all in and you lose. lets pretend for simplicity that everything just calls.
total number of his hands that continue 114.
ratio of WINNING: 100/114 x 100% = 87% so you actually do get value from 87% of his calling range on river, which is more than 50% so its a good valuebet
a $17 shove on the river here would net you around
+ (0.87 x $17) - ( 0.13 x $17) = + $12.58 worth of EV. Bankin.

maybe you want to play around with this and give less weight to his 8X and 9X and PPs, as you think these might fold the turn often.

P.S if you found this useful, I only accpet payment in hot math-themed girls! (but they are near impossible to find)

 Last edit: 15/12/2011 18:32

Hoolz_1907   United Kingdom. Dec 15 2011 18:17. Posts 2791

There you go

Look at his hand and equities, what do you expect him to have here, uno cards? - TianYuan 

spets1   Australia. Dec 16 2011 03:57. Posts 2179

thanks silver that was great.

hola 

 

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