I like how you are thinking of what can call you. Thats phil galfond thinking. Not thinking in terms of standard spots, but having reasons for your bet.
If you aren't going to get called by worse over 50% of the time, you can't valuebet the river. So its not enough that you beat one combo of TT if you lose to 30 other combos.
So its down to this: flatting in the BB, donkbet-call flop, check calling turn, what range will this tighfish (26/15) have?
It will be something like:
-marginals: 9X, 8X, 66, 77, TT, JJ maybe AK, AQ (let's weight with 1/2 of the 9X cause at 26vpip alot might fold pre, 1/4 of the 8X cause they might also fold the turn, and 4 out of 16 possible combos to AK, AQ becasue they might not play this way)
this type of players' mission is to make the nuts then bet and raise it, so AA, KK, QQ would 3bet pre. so they are out. (I am guessing he has about 3% 3bet)
-draws: JT, 56s, 57s, 34s, AhXh
-slowplays: 55, 88, 99, 67, 89 (weight these as discouted by 2/3rds as they would often have raised on the flop or turn)
each 2 card hand has 16 combos, paired-to-board hand has 12 combos, suited hands have 4 combos, pocket pairs have 6 combos
......................................................................................................9X........8X,....66,.77,..TT,..JJ,...AK,.....AQ
Here is what you can get value from: all of marginals: 120/2 + 120/4 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 16/4 + 16/4 ....= 122combos (/x indicates the weight for that part of range)
.........................................................................................AhXh
.............................................some (former) draws: .....12 ................................................................................ = 12 combos
.......................................................................................... 89
...........................................some of his slowplays:.... 8/3................................................................................. = 3 combos
.
.......................................................................................55, ..88.....99..... 67,
You lose to: .......................................... slowplays:.....1/3 + 3/3 + 3/3 + 16/3 ..............................................= 8combos
....................................................................................56s..57s
..................................................draws that hit a 5:...... 3 + 3............................................................................= 6combos
So your value bet on the river can potentialy get value from 122+12+3 = 137 combos. some pocket pairs and 8Xs may find a fold on the river so lets say 100 combos that actually call.
vs 8 combos that call or raise all in and you lose. lets pretend for simplicity that everything just calls.
total number of his hands that continue 114.
ratio of WINNING: 100/114 x 100% = 87% so you actually do get value from 87% of his calling range on river, which is more than 50% so its a good valuebet
a $17 shove on the river here would net you around
+ (0.87 x $17) - ( 0.13 x $17) = + $12.58 worth of EV. Bankin.
maybe you want to play around with this and give less weight to his 8X and 9X and PPs, as you think these might fold the turn often.
P.S if you found this useful, I only accpet payment in hot math-themed girls! (but they are near impossible to find) |
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(two pair, Tens and Fives)
Canada. Dec 15 2011 13:35. Posts 20070
