Submitted by : the cleaner

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** Poker Stars
$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, March 10, 08:10:43 ET 2012
Table Botein IV Real Money
Seat 6 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 $102.64 USD - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 8, AF: 3.8, Hands: 2295
Seat 2: Player2 $134.59 USD - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 0.7, Hands: 81
Seat 4: Player4 $88.04 USD - VPIP: 37, PFR: 10, 3B: 3, AF: 1.8, Hands: 385
Seat 5: Hero $120.50 USD - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 9, AF: 3.1, Hands: 852020
Seat 6: Player6 $89.45 USD - VPIP: 23, PFR: 22, 3B: 6, AF: 6.3, Hands: 283
Player1 posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
Player2 posts big blind [$1.00 USD].

Holecards
Dealt to Hero [ ]
Player4 folds
Hero raises [$3.00 USD]
Player6 folds
Player1 raises [$9.50 USD]
Player2 folds
Hero calls [$7.00 USD]

Flop (Pot : $20.50)

   
Player1 bets [$13.00 USD]
Hero calls [$13.00 USD]

Turn (Pot : $46.50)

   
Player1 bets [$28.00 USD]

standard shove, yea?

yeap

so much equity

I've got the feeling that he will fold his bluffy hands on the river and not fold if we hit.
So I just call.

On March 10 2012 11:52 waga wrote: I've got the feeling that he will fold his bluffy hands on the river and not fold if we hit. So I just call.

you shove every river card if he checks ?
what if he bets a brick (he may be doing this with his bluffs) ?

Yes and I don't think so.
Imo he will not 3barrel bluff this booard , but it's a good board to 2Barrel
I could be wrong tho

(edit : I probably check or fold a K river)

why is it a good board to double barrel? seems like a bad board to double barrel to me. We have KQ,AQ, JTs-ATs, QJs or oesd pretty much always.

Yes, shove.

If it's not a good board to 2 barrel ,then when he does, he should call all his range.
What's the point to shove when we've got no FE and an easy decision river ?

I mean all the hands he fold to a shove are the hands that will probably c/f river.

waga, i think we have a lot of FE on this board, and it would suck if turn goes ch/ch and we loose to AK or AJ type of hands. Also he could be folding hands like KT or JT/T9 or 99 to our turn shove.

hands he c/f river imo

my point is :
all the hands he 2barrel with lik AJ AK KJ AT JT 99 JJ etc will probably c/f river. (you represent a lot of strenght when you call 2 streets) and you've got an easy decision if he bet / good FE if he check.
He never fold AA KK AQ KQ obv ...


edit : If he shove river hands like AK AJ AT etc , then yes I prefer a shove obviously , but I'm quite confident he c/f a lot those hands.

We have no idea if he will c/f river with those hands. We have FE, it's just not a good board to double barrel with complete air.

Don't think he'll bet/fold a lot to be honest. By calling you're never making a mistake here because you get fine odds to draw so it's +EV always to call here. You don't even need to make any money on the river if you hit.

Then again shoving won't be terrible I guess. He could have some hands like AK/AJ/JK/AT that he might bet/fold the turn with so I guess there is some fold equity.

On March 10 2012 16:46 Twisted wrote: Don't think he'll bet/fold a lot to be honest. By calling you're never making a mistake here because you get fine odds to draw so it's +EV always to call here. You don't even need to make any money on the river if you hit. Then again shoving won't be terrible I guess. He could have some hands like AK/AJ/JK/AT that he might bet/fold the turn with so I guess there is some fold equity.

agree. one of those spots where i really dont think it matters a whole lot what you do, both plays seem reasonable/fine. i dont even know what i do more often. probably just shove over guys that 2 barrel a high percentage and call vs those who dont

Yea if you know he is never bluffing there you should obv call but if you think you have some FE (not a lot is needed given our raw equity) you should ship.

thanks guys

I'm pretty sure if he only folds like 15% of the time here this is an ez ship.

that said if that 15% only includes his air balls then i might tend to flat more. If he snaps most of his value range then call is probably better since well...this guy ain't folding teh queen

Yeah this is definitely a spot where you make the play based on what you think makes you more money from this particular player.

On March 16 2012 08:00 phexac wrote: Yeah this is definitely a spot where you make the play based on what you think makes you more money from this particular player.

LOL

On March 16 2012 08:00 phexac wrote: Yeah this is definitely a spot where you make the play based on what you think makes you more money from this particular player.

brilliant

lol

Call is the better EV option in most cases, but both are +EV. Here is a detailed CREV/STOXEV analysis why:

CREV/STOXEV analysis

Feel free to point out mistakes or ask questions.

double post

Says its a private video?

On March 16 2012 08:00 phexac wrote: Yeah this is definitely a spot where you make the play based on what you think makes you more money from this particular player.

*kaching*
A definition of poker has been found.

On May 05 2012 07:34 TianYuan wrote: Says its a private video?

Apologies, Vimeo is very weird. I keep making it public and saving, but it keeps becoming private..Hopefully it stays public now..

pretty cool stuff

yeah its a neat program, thanks for video,
think it needs a few sets of realistic river assumptions to be meaningful

it is still private for me lol
maybe ur turning it public for certain amount of time?

On May 06 2012 13:13 ShLiM wrote: it is still private for me lol maybe ur turning it public for certain amount of time?

There seems to be an issue with Vimeo, e-mailed suppport. In the meantime use the following youtube link and make sure to watch in HD:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYzdTrxSPLw

On May 06 2012 12:14 Minsk wrote: yeah its a neat program, thanks for video, think it needs a few sets of realistic river assumptions to be meaningful

You can set up scenarios for different river cards, but that will complicate the analysis and will take much more time to setup. If you use the program on a regular basis, you will know that often you have to make approximations and you do not always need a precise EV number. More often than not having a general trend will be enough to give you an idea how to react in different situations based on variables and conditions. Doing quick, but regular hand reviews with CREV is much better than spending too much time on 1 hand and doing it very infrequently.

I still believe the analysis to be meaningful. Although the river part of the tree might seem very simplistic, in fact, it covers good ground. Let me clarify the river part as I did not cover it in much detail in the video:
The main assumptions are that Hero will never bluff if villain checks and that villain always checks unless he has TP or better. However, when villain checks missed AJ and AK and Hero checks back then villain always wins vs KdJd. This is the equivalent of villain always bluffing with these hands and us folding unless we have the nuts. In the case of villain having KJ miss and river going check+check then it is split pot, which roughly similar to bluffing half the time or less with this hand. Only 9d8d loses when checking river.

Overall, you can see that the general trend is that Hero can only improve his EV if we spend more time and tweak the river scenarios. Closer to reality, villain will not have such high bluffing frequencies on the river and he will lose the hand certain percentage of the time when he checks river as Hero bluffs. Therefore, the turn call scenario will become even more +EV, which will simply reaffirm that calling is the better choice on the turn.

On March 10 2012 16:46 Twisted wrote: Don't think he'll bet/fold a lot to be honest. By calling you're never making a mistake here because you get fine odds to draw so it's +EV always to call here. You don't even need to make any money on the river if you hit. Then again shoving won't be terrible I guess. He could have some hands like AK/AJ/JK/AT that he might bet/fold the turn with so I guess there is some fold equity.

What's your move if this is a newer villain and you barely have any reads on him?