Ah well, I suppose the tide was obviously going to return to normal at some point. Typical bullshit.

I do acknowledge the possibility that he's bluffing with a set here, but as a reg who pumps the turn it's very, very, very unlikely.

He has the flush that often here?

Shoulda bumped up the turn dude. He donked u bro.

If you think a backdoored flush is a reasonable part of his range, I don't see why you're not just raising turn with $36 already in the pot

probably cause if he has a flushdraw he will also have a straight and be freerolling, or have a set and be coin flipping? otherwise why did he peel the flop (right?? I dunno lol)

He has a flush more often than not here, good discipline fold imo. I personally like the turn call if you are planning to bluff him on a diamond river in case he checks. In this particular hand, you would have been freerolled if you raised the turn, because he is representing same straight as you with a flush draw that completed on the river. The only hand that you beat here is 99** or TT** without diamonds and is betting, because there is no other way to win the hand. I don't see how a set or set with a FD is calling the flop and leading the turn. If he wants to get the money in with a set + fd he is check raising the turn all day.

why would he donk instead of c/r a turn freeroll ever

On March 12 2012 21:32 Spicy wrote: If you think a backdoored flush is a reasonable part of his range, I don't see why you're not just raising turn with $36 already in the pot

It's because I have a strong read that I'd be getting free-rolled a very large percentage of the time and flipping most of the rest vs. a set that turned a FD.

That turn bet is for value 95%+ of the time. He's not trying to bluff me out. Maybe 25% or so of the time we're just splitting and perhaps that's enough to warrant a turn shove but when the flush only comes down a small percentage of the time I think flatting is far better.

On March 12 2012 22:28 player999 wrote: why would he donk instead of c/r a turn freeroll ever

Logical and probably accurate. I would say probably leading because there is no guarantee I have a straight here. He's betting because he doesn't want to lose value if I check behind with 2pair/set/high FD combo type hand. He's probably assuming I can never fold a nut straight on the turn because I can't. In fact I'd say vs. my whole range leading is probably better for him. It's not like losing out on his free-roll by doing so. He's just maximizing the value of his hand when someone calls his value bet with a set/combodraw.

how can anyone win at 50PLO? rake there is so shit

On March 12 2012 22:46 whamm! wrote: how can anyone win at 50PLO? rake there is so shit

You have to be >10bb/100 winner or have a >50% rakeback

So your not raising the turn because he might have a set+ FD or the nut straight + FD...... I really don't see how not raising the turn is a good play at all. This is a 50$ buy in game, you seem to be over thinking things.

If your ever folding to a bluff on the river here, even a very small 10% of the time your play is MUCH worse then raising the turn vs the nut straight that happens to have a FD which is very rare (and with his line that's very unlikely). And if your folding the river here because he's never 3 barrel bluffs etc, then that's even more reason to raise the turn since he's likely giving up when he bricks any ways. Your 60/40 on the turn vs a set+FD that's likely never folding, that's about as good of equity as your ever going get in this game.

What you should be doing here is raising the turn when you have the nuts, or a set + FD, 99+FD, 88+FD, QTJ8+FD.

Your play also makes you pretty easy to play against, and very easy to bluff. The fact that you whine about it and basically tell your opponent that your folding the nut straight because the FD is even more horrible.


Basically raising the turn with the nuts in PLO is never a mistake, where as folding the nuts straight when a flush draw hits vs a really fishy line.... well that's going to be the wrong play at least 20% of the time, especially in a situation where your opponent does not put you on the straight.

The only reason not to raise the turn is if you think your opponent is a spew tard and is weak with a high river bet frequency. But if that's the case you should be calling on 95% of rivers.

I wouldn't worry about getting it in with the nuts vs the nuts with a redraw on the turn. That's like AA vs KK all in pre in NL, it's something every single person is going to do.. the situation nulls itself.

Bejamin1 said, "awesonme nice hit buddy"

thats a leak

Sometimes you just get a feeling. Comments from people who didn't play with villain or learn about him over a long session on 3-4 tables have less merit than my read. I felt very strongly that he had it based on his line. I'm sure I'm wrong some of the time. Who knows, maybe it was a horrible play to fold. Live and learn.

On March 13 2012 00:25 DaEm0niCuS wrote: So your not raising the turn because he might have a set+ FD or the nut straight + FD...... I really don't see how not raising the turn is a good play at all. This is a 50$ buy in game, you seem to be over thinking things. If your ever folding to a bluff on the river here, even a very small 10% of the time your play is MUCH worse then raising the turn vs the nut straight that happens to have a FD which is very rare (and with his line that's very unlikely). And if your folding the river here because he's never 3 barrel bluffs etc, then that's even more reason to raise the turn since he's likely giving up when he bricks any ways. Your 60/40 on the turn vs a set+FD that's likely never folding, that's about as good of equity as your ever going get in this game. What you should be doing here is raising the turn when you have the nuts, or a set + FD, 99+FD, 88+FD, QTJ8+FD. Your play also makes you pretty easy to play against, and very easy to bluff. The fact that you whine about it and basically tell your opponent that your folding the nut straight because the FD is even more horrible. Basically raising the turn with the nuts in PLO is never a mistake, where as folding the nuts straight when a flush draw hits vs a really fishy line.... well that's going to be the wrong play at least 20% of the time, especially in a situation where your opponent does not put you on the straight.

You're logic is good and probably correct. Normally that's the line I take. I just don't see it playing out that way vs. a nit here. I can raise the turn but when I do I'm getting called by free-rolls, splits, flipping hands, and rarely anything else. The rarity with which a nit actually bluffs this river is extremely low. I'd say I'm gonna free-roll myself or flip for 100bb's 90% of the time. Maybe 10% of the time get bluffed on the river flush card. Meaning he actually has to flush the river in the first place which doesn't happen. Anyways it's certainly an interesting hand to discuss and it's nice to see real conversation and different perspectives. I'm certainly open to the possibility that I didn't play it well. The comment in the HH was more tilt than anything else considering I was 6 buy-ins Under EV in less than 500 hands T_T.