man u must be sweating these hands hard hehe

i didnt need an extra 30k anyway lol

I really don't see the merit to calling here pre, seems like a break even play at best.

These kind of raise flat call a 4 bet plays just don't seem very good in most situations, the 3 better may push in which case it's always a losing play, and your in a situation where your folding the flop some % of the time vs someone who is never folding.

What's your thinking behind this?

Maybe I'm just missing something....

Sometimes we flop stuff that owns AAxx/stuff that reps AAxx and win a ton post?

On March 16 2012 12:06 DustySwedeDude wrote: Sometimes we flop stuff that owns AAxx/stuff that reps AAxx and win a ton post?

It's clearly a 100% mathematical situation, he has a dominated hand and anytime the guy has AATx, AAKx, AAQx or has his FD covered his hand becomes really bad, any time the 3 better shoves pre he is in a really bad situation as well.

Not to mention if the flop comes all hearts or all spades terken is probably folding a decent % of the time.


I guess I'm looking for someone to give a mathematical explanation as to how profitable the play is, I'm assuming joe has done this? if he hasn't then what business does he have making the play?

Ok vs AAxx he's 33.94% , vs AAxx and **** hes 29.76%. This EV is assuming he's going to see all 5 cards, however his opponent is folding maybe 2% of the time and he's probably folding on 20% of the time on the flop, maybe more.

So 20% of the time he's only realizing 60% of his equity, which lowers his overall equity From ~32% to ~29% hu or 29% to 27.5% in the 3 way pot.

I don't think any of my assumptions are that far off, in regards to folding %'s or terken having AAxx here 99% of the time.

Dead money = 1320$*29% = 382. So if he folds he loses 382 in ev



Main pot = 30,904 Side pot = 13,193

He's putting in 9,861 more with 29% equity to win 29,583 main pot. 29% of 29,583 is 8,579.. A loss of 1282$.


Side pot he is putting in 6595$. Vs AAxx range he has 34% equity, 34% of 13,192 = 4485. A loss of 2110$. However when he puts this money in it's post flop and he likely has a much higher equity then 34% when deciding to go with it. lets be generous and give him 48%. 48% of 13,192 = 6332. A loss of 262$.

Now that is really lazy and simple quick math and is def missing some factors and has some errors, but it paints a somewhat decent picture none the less.

The person he is going to end up playing the deep pot against has him crushed, and his hand is about as obvious as you could ever get in PLO.



So in conclusion I fail to see how flatting a huge 4 bet with any hand that is dominated is ever a good play. If your opponent shows AA in NLHE and you have AK are you calling his 4 bet pre?

Terken has made his hand 100% known, it would seem to me that any hand with an A in it should certainly be a fold when you know your dominated and only have 4bb in the pot facing 43 more.


Id rather have 8h9hTsJs here, a MUCH better hand vs Terkens obv AA, almost a 9% ev difference.

Some more equity.


On 50% of flops AsTsKhQh vs AAxx and **** is only 25% to win. This means that joe should be folding the flop closer to around 40% of the time. So 40% of the time he just insta loses 4300$....

On 50% of flops AsTsKhQh vs only AAxx is only 30% to win.


On 50% of flops 8sTs9hJh vs AAxx and **** is 34% to win

On 50% of flops 8sTs9hJh vs only AAxx is 42% to win.


So it becomes clear pretty quickly that being dominated has some pretty big -EV implications.


I really don't see what's working in favor if this play.. the more I think about it the more horrible it becomes.

yea after ran numbers realized was easy fold pre but was soooooo pretty of a hand

Ya, I've spent hours looking at this hand. And my math points to it being between a -5bb and -10bb/100 play. However I'm still not 100% on how the side/main pot factors in which is why I said -5 to -10.


The smaller maises 3bet% the more -EV the play becomes, as you begin to share more and more outs.


Id like to add that if MaiseE is deeper the play becomes fine. If both opponents are deeper you can cold call a 4 bet with any premium hand. Conversely if you were only 100bb deep in this hand, it would become really -EV.

Also Maises play is only about +3.8bb/100. Which would mean at any stake with a high rake relative to bb/100, his 3 bet call would be -EV.