Over a sample of 200 hands villain has high w$sd (63%) and low w$sf (38%).

Hmm not sure, I would feel okay with both folding and calling. Definitely looks like AT, doubt he's doing it with worse two pair but it's possible.

What would he do with KJ?

On July 23 2012 08:30 johnmagi wrote: What would he do with KJ?

i just can't see him raising that big with KJ, cause what does he expects me to call him with ?

def gross small spot but ya id pitch it for now since i dont think we will be correct enough to show a call +ev AND we dont really learn anything if we are beat. like oh ok he checked back like AT on a draw board then called turna double gutter and rr when hit....hardly un-stnd/noteworthy u know so no metagame benefits of us being wrong when we call either

Easy fold.

yea i folded pretty fast. thanks

I think its pretty close actually, if Im reading this properly we need ~30% eq to call so thats about 6 combos of bluffs, which Im not saying we got but at least worth considering, especially if we plan to play with him a lot we dont learn anything from seeing the nuts but if he shows Q9 or JT its pretty useful.

Actually on second thought given its 50nl you probably wont see him again and hes less likely to be pulling a bluff in general so I take it back. Also Im not sure how to interpret the stats but I feel it makes a case for him not bluffing too -.-

On July 23 2012 14:46 EvilSky wrote: Actually on second thought given its 50nl you probably wont see him again and hes less likely to be pulling a bluff in general so I take it back. Also Im not sure how to interpret the stats but I feel it makes a case for him not bluffing too -.-

yes =)

this is ace ten like 70% of the time

hmm or K8/K7/KJ

on 2nd thought, you need to pot the river to prevent yourself from making a bad fold to a thin valueraise

On July 23 2012 15:31 TalentedTom wrote: this is ace ten like 70% of the time hmm or K8/K7/KJ on 2nd thought, you need to pot the river to prevent yourself from making a bad fold to a thin valueraise

i dont think a random rr's those hands often enough and not that size at this limit...they usually do like smaller w 2 pair hands if they do rr

thoughts?

I think most players would reraise smaller if they where looking for thin value. and i agree my river bet should have been a little bigger. i also agree that people bluff very little in these spots at 50nl/100nl.

On July 23 2012 14:46 EvilSky wrote: Actually on second thought given its 50nl you probably wont see him again and hes less likely to be pulling a bluff in general so I take it back. Also Im not sure how to interpret the stats but I feel it makes a case for him not bluffing too -.-

regarding the stats. the sample size was small 200 hands

w$sd (63%) high won at showdown stats, usualy indicate less bluffs.
w$sf (38%). low won when seen flop, indicates that he doesn't fights to much for pots postflop.

On July 23 2012 16:05 D_Zoo wrote: Show nested quote + On July 23 2012 15:31 TalentedTom wrote: this is ace ten like 70% of the time hmm or K8/K7/KJ on 2nd thought, you need to pot the river to prevent yourself from making a bad fold to a thin valueraise i dont think a random rr's those hands often enough and not that size at this limit...they usually do like smaller w 2 pair hands if they do rr thoughts?

yeah im def on the fold train, i like a larger river bet, on 3rd thought most players are too passive to reraise those hands for value anyway, its pretty much just AT and nothing else

Btw - hey how are you long time no see