is it worth it to try to fold out some pot-controlling Ax vs competent reg ?

it depends on the villian and the history obviously but , would you fold your Ax here ? You can pot it , overbet it or smthing too

when you factor in possible KQ/KJ hands as well i think it's worth it, i'd say go at least potsize bet so he gets the message.

edit- slowwposter, pretty much what eluflop said^

how about x-r? shouldn't he try to get some value with Ax and we can still rep flush

On October 25 2012 19:38 Trolala wrote: how about x-r? shouldn't he try to get some value with Ax and we can still rep flush

yeah it seems reasonable, i just think they're checking back a few too many hands to make it better than leading. if villain is abc we should win pretty much 100% of the time if we bet like 12.5 on river, we prob get hero'd once in a while but not that much. if we c/r we get more dead money from his value hands (or random unlikely bluffs) but he also gets to check back Kx. i believe once he checks turn his river v-betting range is pretty narrow actually, i think lots of 100nl regs check A8 and worse there, and i assume any 2p+ still bets turn.

x/r might be even better , I can totally see him betting those Ax hands once he gets brick river. + you get tons of respect x/r river at these stakes and the hh would look well good (given he folds heh)

you have the best hand most of the time here... you can def CR river, leading is not optimal here

^what tom said

i hate leading here cus he will call his Ax almost always I feel ;s unless we bet a ton which just isnt worth it imo. like CR though

tom what % of the time do you expect villain to call river overbet lead when he checks behind this turn?

maybe i'm underestimating villain's range for betting/bluffing river, which i would assume to be extremely narrow. i mean if he has A7 or w/e and he's going to bet one more street wouldn't it make more sense for him to bet turn and check back river?

if he has an ace and checks, its fine.. hes a BUTTON opener and he c-bets, his range is still ver 50% of the deck, which we are a clear favorate against, when he checks back we are good well over 60% of the time, when he bets its either a delayed bluff, or a non flush. This is just way too strong of a hand to be turning into a lead overbet, thats insane IMO