I'd prefer a c/c - it targets a much wider range than a bet. His bluffs will fire this river super often and you are betting to get value from like maybe TT, JJ or praying he raised a weaker ace, which you get a bet from anyway.

I'd also repop the flop small and call a shove.

cc rvr. Can you say why raise call flop oly?

To extract value from his draws with our ace high. He could easily stack AT or 67 here and will have trouble folding if we make it 23. If we've made a mistake and walk into JJ it's a pretty small mistake since we bank 40% with our ten outs. In that sense our hand is nicer to play than JJ here since we have good equity when behind.

edit: it also stops you getting bluffed off the best hand on a chunk of turns, or him getting 2 free cards.

edit2: and there's always the small % he simply folds a better hand which happens occasionally.

On January 03 2013 13:34 Oly wrote: To extract value from his draws with our ace high. He could easily stack AT or 67 here and will have trouble folding if we make it 23. If we've made a mistake and walk into JJ it's a pretty small mistake since we bank 40% with our ten outs. In that sense our hand is nicer to play than JJ here since we have good equity when behind. edit: it also stops you getting bluffed off the best hand on a chunk of turns, or him getting 2 free cards. edit2: and there's always the small % he simply folds a better hand which happens occasionally.

ty so gonna stove it.

thanks Oly solid advice

Board: 5d4h2d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 31.97% 28.84% 3.12% { AsQc }
MP3 68.03% 64.91% 3.12% { JJ, 55-44, 22, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, 8d6d, 7d6d, Ad5d, 6d5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d }
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EV (Semi-Bluff) - Works for preflop commiting re-raise that gets shoved or folded against
EV(semi-bluff) = Fold Equity * Dead Money + (1- Fold Equity) * [Equity *What we win - (1- Equity) * Bet Size]

Dead money Equity Bet Size Fold equity WHAT WE WIN (FINAL POT-OUR BETSIZE) EQUITY
26.5 0.3197 41.12 0.24 61.42 0.02314888
[/spoiler]

If he flats a lot of suited hands and raise calls them as shown above we need 24% fold equity to do be breakeven if we he will only raise of fold against the re-raise.

If he stacks off justJJ, sets and combo draws we need 33%
Board: 5d4h2d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 28.11% 24.57% 3.54% { AsQc }
MP3 71.89% 68.34% 3.54% { JJ, 55-44, 22, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, 8d7d, Ad6d, 8d6d, 7d6d, Ad5d, 8d5d, 7d5d, 6d5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d }


+ Show Spoiler +

So if you have a dynamic and you expect him to raise call air 1/3rd of the time or more it should be a slam dunk shove. The more FDs+overs he raise shoves/calls the better

Board: 5d4h2d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 35.64% 33.09% 2.55% { AsQc }
MP3 64.36% 61.81% 2.55% { JJ, 55-44, 22, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Kd8d, Qd8d, Jd8d, Td8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, 8d7d, Ad6d, 8d6d, 7d6d, Ad5d, 8d5d, 7d5d, 6d5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d }

With this range we need just 17% fold equity, and it doesn't change much if we add more pps to his range.