UFC FN 70: Machida vs Romero - Page 2

On June 24 2015 01:05 soberstone wrote: C) This whole wrestler narrative is too simplistic and has gone way too far IMO. Mendes or Edgar are tougher matchups for Conor because of the elite wrestling dimensions of their games, but also because they are ELITE mma fighters. Conor would OBLITERATE a Dennis Bermudez or Ricardo Lamas who are both fantastic wrestlers. Don't buy into the general public polarization narrative that Conor beats strikers but would get destroyed by a wrestler just because we haven't seen him grapple much. It's retarded.

Well there is a reason we haven't seen him grapple much and that reason is that he has been fed the best stylistic match ups in the division to make him look spectacular. And I am not the one to cry about that, this is the way the fighting game works. When you have a fighter as marketable,charismatic and with such an exciting fighting style as McGregor you want to push him to the top and cash in before somebody exposes him. If the UFC matchmakers believed that Conor will obliterate Bermudez or Lamas, they would of booked him against any of them and not against Denis Siver.

I personally have no problem with that and I hope they book something like Conor - Diaz so he can rack in another impressive victory and then we can see him against Aldo, against whom he matches very well, and not put him against some boring wrestler who will hold him down and kill the momentum he generated.

Diaz mcgregor plz

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/25...es-fighting-conor-mcgregor-at-ufc-189

On June 24 2015 14:07 alejandicto wrote: T_________________________T.... Machida by decision at +308 seems like a good bet to me, what do you guys think?

I'm thinking o2.5 rounds -110, but still unsure who will win.

On June 24 2015 15:36 northsails wrote: Show nested quote + On June 24 2015 01:05 soberstone wrote: C) This whole wrestler narrative is too simplistic and has gone way too far IMO. Mendes or Edgar are tougher matchups for Conor because of the elite wrestling dimensions of their games, but also because they are ELITE mma fighters. Conor would OBLITERATE a Dennis Bermudez or Ricardo Lamas who are both fantastic wrestlers. Don't buy into the general public polarization narrative that Conor beats strikers but would get destroyed by a wrestler just because we haven't seen him grapple much. It's retarded. Well there is a reason we haven't seen him grapple much and that reason is that he has been fed the best stylistic match ups in the division to make him look spectacular. And I am not the one to cry about that, this is the way the fighting game works. When you have a fighter as marketable,charismatic and with such an exciting fighting style as McGregor you want to push him to the top and cash in before somebody exposes him. If the UFC matchmakers believed that Conor will obliterate Bermudez or Lamas, they would of booked him against any of them and not against Denis Siver. I personally have no problem with that and I hope they book something like Conor - Diaz so he can rack in another impressive victory and then we can see him against Aldo, against whom he matches very well, and not put him against some boring wrestler who will hold him down and kill the momentum he generated.

I agree to a degree - they certainly gave him the least risky path to a title shot and his wrestling hasn't been objectively tested, but at the same time, consider from a promotional standpoint that IF McGregor is to beat Aldo, he'll be a superstar (more-so than ever) - and than the next narrative, perhaps after a rematch, will be the whole 'can he fight a wrestler' one. That helps build the next fight since it's an untested aspect of his game.... can't you see the Joe Rogan promos already?

I'm fully confident with McGregor's length, movement, athleticism, size, learning curve, etc - that he would do just fine vs the top wrestlers in the division BESIDES Mendes or Edgar - those two are certainly a stretch. He's just not the type of guy you're gonna take down and HOLD down unless you have an other-worldy top game (Mendes, Edgar). Lamas has an awesome top game with a strong base, GnP, sub's, but I doubt he'd be able to get inside on Conor very much before getting starched, and Bermudez wouldn't be able to hold him down or get inside IMO. But I digress.

Let us not forget that when he tore his ACL and decided it was necessary, he took down Max Holloway at will. Not sure if his defensive wrestling chops match his offensive, but I'm sure he's decent there as well at a minimum. I really think in 5 years we'll look back and laugh at the whole 'he can't beat a wrestler' narrative and how it's taken on a life of its own.

On June 24 2015 14:07 alejandicto wrote: T_________________________T.... Machida by decision at +308 seems like a good bet to me, what do you guys think?

I think Machida is either going to starch Romero or get starched. If it does make it to a decision, that certainly favors Machida, but I don't like that line at all for a 5 round fight where either guy is liable to get KTFO at any time.

"In light of recent reports regarding the status of UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo, UFC has received official medical confirmation from several doctors that Aldo did not suffer a broken rib. Following a review of the scans, it has been determined that the champion suffered a bone bruise to his rib and cartilage injury during training.

With this news, Aldo has expressed that he has every intention of facing Conor McGregor at UFC 189.

While Aldo has indicated that he will compete in Las Vegas on July 11, UFC has confirmed a contingency plan. No.1 featherweight contender Chad Mendes will face McGregor for the interim UFC featherweight championship in the event Aldo cannot compete.

UFC remains committed to delivering the featherweight and the welterweight championship fights at UFC 189 during UFC International Fight Week in Las Vegas."


http://www.ufc.com/news/UFC-Statement-on-UFC-189

On June 25 2015 03:14 PuertoRican wrote: "In light of recent reports regarding the status of UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo, UFC has received official medical confirmation from several doctors that Aldo did not suffer a broken rib. Following a review of the scans, it has been determined that the champion suffered a bone bruise to his rib and cartilage injury during training. With this news, Aldo has expressed that he has every intention of facing Conor McGregor at UFC 189. While Aldo has indicated that he will compete in Las Vegas on July 11, UFC has confirmed a contingency plan. No.1 featherweight contender Chad Mendes will face McGregor for the interim UFC featherweight championship in the event Aldo cannot compete. UFC remains committed to delivering the featherweight and the welterweight championship fights at UFC 189 during UFC International Fight Week in Las Vegas." http://www.ufc.com/news/UFC-Statement-on-UFC-189

Shocked they are giving Mendes the opportunity over Edgar. That sits really poorly with me.

Regardless, stoked the fights still on.

I'm starting to get really confused at why Machida is favored 2:1 here. This is a fish line, all the fish are betting on Machida because hes well known.

Romero has a body that's on the level of a Rockhold, and not very much less skill. And his reaction speed, at least against the low level fighters hes fought, looks on the level of Anderson Silva. I think hes incredible actually, I wonder if they have the same teacher. I think hes going to plow through Machida like its nothing, unless he loses a mental leveling war and gets caught and KOed. I went back and forth on this, but I'm now I'm very confident that almost all of Machidas paths to victory involve a timing KO. or possibly a late round exaustion KO if he gasses easily.

And Machida is pretty tough, I could see him lasting 5 rounds. I really don't mind Romero by Decision at 8.0 -

I just saw the new matchups.They're really fucking dope. They have Ovince St.Preux vs Texeira, and Charles Olivera x Mex Hollowa.

My bets thus far:

Lewis Gonzalez +130 (2u)
Sirwan Kakai +120 (1u)
Bosse/Santos u1.5 +120 (1.5u)
Machida/Romero o2.5 -110 (2u)


Still don't have any idea about Machida/Romero. I haven't really thought much about it, I'm just watching the lines move for now. I'll decide who to take on Friday or Saturday.

: )

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/6/24/...ht-conor-mcgregor-will-go-on-mma-news

I have a big bet on Romero. You seen the guys traps? Guy reminds me of blanca in street fighter 1. Seems bigger, faster, stronger than machida.

Aldo a dog now on multiple bookies. I feel that the line will spread even more before fight night. If you want to bet Conor now is the time.

I have 2 big bets on Aldo at -125 and - 115 and not really happy how this situation unfolded. Aldo is in situation that he just can't withdraw, cause he is going to make more money from this fight, than all his previous combined and even if he loses he has a rematch coming in, where he is going to get paid big one more time. If he withdraws now and Mendes beats Conor all this money are gone. Bruised rib is a bitch though, I had it once and it is tough to do anything, let alone train. On the bright side in close to 3 weeks it should heal pretty well.

On to this card I think Machida has a slight edge but no way he should be that big of a favorite. Both fighters can be devastating on offence but are suspect when taking punishment, so maybe there is value in the u2.5 line.

https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/Bylj-9vIcAABkP9.mp4

Romero's insane ankle pick takedown.

The UFC is most likely keeping everyone's hope alive that Aldo is still on the card, which means tickets and hotel rooms will still be sold. The UFC already said they have a backup plan of using Mendes vs. McGregor for the interim title.

I won't lay any money on Aldo until he weighs in, that way I know he's fighting.

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The UFC is using the small Octagon this weekend in Florida, per @BrianStann.

The last event with a small cage had 10 finishes out of 12 fights.

"PPVs and FOX cards will not have small cage

Only Fight Nights and TUF Finales will be candidates for the small cage


So whenever there is a fight night or TUF finale be prepared for the possibility of a small cage."

On June 25 2015 04:25 Minsk wrote: I'm starting to get really confused at why Machida is favored 2:1 here. This is a fish line, all the fish are betting on Machida because hes well known. Romero has a body that's on the level of a Rockhold, and not very much less skill. And his reaction speed, at least against the low level fighters hes fought, looks on the level of Anderson Silva. I think hes incredible actually, I wonder if they have the same teacher. I think hes going to plow through Machida like its nothing, unless he loses a mental leveling war and gets caught and KOed. I went back and forth on this, but I'm now I'm very confident that almost all of Machidas paths to victory involve a timing KO. or possibly a late round exaustion KO if he gasses easily. And Machida is pretty tough, I could see him lasting 5 rounds. I really don't mind Romero by Decision at 8.0 - I just saw the new matchups.They're really fucking dope. They have Ovince St.Preux vs Texeira, and Charles Olivera x Mex Hollowa.

Idk man, to me it was a clear romero bet, but i know some mma experts who say machida is an easy bet, i'm confused. I might avoid this one or bet small on romero.

They are using the small cage. Look for value on under lines and finish props.

Also, I think that favors Romero in his specific matchup with Machida.

Just placed the following bets:

Romero > Machida @ +165 - $40 to win $66
Romero/Machida U 2.5 rds @ -110 - $55 to win $50
Romero/Machida U 2.5 + Larkin Parlay @ +180 - $30 to win $53.91
Larkin + Carlos Jr Parlay @ +122 - $40 to win $49.45
Bosse/Santos U 1.5 rds @ +120 - $30 to win $36
Romera/Machida U 2.5 + Bosse/Santos U 1.5 + Larkin + Carlos Jr. Parlay @ +831 - $35 to win $293.73

Nice I like those, making similar bets once the props come out on bovada. Only thing is bovada doesn't allow over/unders or really any props I don't think into parlays