- A middleweight bout between former Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion Gegard Mousasi and Derek Brunson was expected to take place at this event, but on June 19 it was announced that Brunson pulled out due to injury and was replaced by Thiago Santos.
- A lightweight bout between Joe Lauzon and The Ultimate Fighter 1 winner and former lightweight title challenger Diego Sanchez was originally booked for UFC 180. However, the bout was cancelled due to both fighters being injured. The fight was later rescheduled for this event. Also, another couple of lightweight bouts between former PRIDE Lightweight Champion Takanori Gomi and Jim Miller, as well as Sage Northcutt and Enrique Marin are expected to take place at this event.
- Also on the card there will be a women's bantamweight bout between former title challenger Cat Zingano and The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate winner Julianna Pena, and a bantamweight rematch between former UFC Bantamweight Champion T.J. Dillashaw and Raphael Assuncao. The pairing first met at UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Shields in October 2013, when Assuncao won a close bout via split decision.
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican United States. Jun 20 2016 06:49. Posts 13123
On June 20 2016 15:54 alejandicto wrote:
My possible bets:
- Cormier (+240)
- Jose Aldo (+100)
- Gastelum (+145)
- Nunes (+210)
- Hunt by KO (-159)
- Velasquez KO (-110)
- Lauzon by Submission (+570)
- Northcutt + Velasquez + Dillashaw (+121)
take my comments with a grain of salt, i am not a winning player.
I don't like the cormier bet. I think Jones has shown us Cormier has no answer for him. I don't see what he can do to beat Jones.
The Aldo one is tough, but i feel like Edgar has improved since their first fight. On the other hand, Aldo most likely is declining. Most champs who get KTO tends to come back weaker. And even if the best aldo shows up, i feel like this is a close fight.
Gastelum bet is a trap imo. People are thinking Hendricks is suddenly bad, but i think he's still an elite fighter, its just Thompson is super elite. He still made Matt brown look like a beginner.
Nunes bet: I don't have a strong opinion on this, but PuertoRicain told me that the HUGE gambler who bet on Holm and Tate is now betting on Tate again.
james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;(
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soberstone United States. Jun 21 2016 00:48. Posts 2662
I agree on Cormier not necessarily being a great bet but I thought he was competitive with Jones the first time and has gotten better. I favor Jones and think the odds are about right but I wouldn't say it's a runaway fight.
The huge bettor is Vegas Dave and he's just a huge degen who has gotten lucky IMO but we'll see.
There is no way in hell there is value on Miesha Tate at -260. She almost lost to Sarah McMann, who Nunes absolutely annihilated. Tate also gets dropped a lot, including to Jessica Eye. MMA math doesn't prove anything, but in addition to that factor, Nunes tore Zingano a new asshole in rd 1 before gassing. She's the hardest hitter in WBW, one of the best strikers, has much improved TDD. It's basically a question of weather she can avoid gassing if she doesn't finish Miesha (which she probably won't). Considering the magnitude of the fight, I bet she comes in shape.
It's rare that I'd be a pick 2:1 dog SU but this is an instance where I legitimately favor Nunes.
I just think it's a perfect storm of public perception being high on Miesha and a relatively unknown / under-rated fighter in Nunes being much better. Kind of a similar situation to Rousey vs Holm but without the insane hype.
Last edit: 21/06/2016 00:52
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soberstone United States. Jun 21 2016 00:56. Posts 2662
As for the Gastellum bet I really like it. I just don't see a huge edge for Hendricks anywhere. I think Gastellum has much better cardio, more output, and similar kick-boxing and handspeed in the pocket. Both have granite chins but I actually think Kelvin's may be even better.
Obv on paper Hendricks is the better wrestler but I don't think he'll have the cardio to really wrestle much with someone as strong, stalky, and as proficient a scrambler as Kelvin.
To me the fight is a pickem, so I'd just as soon bet Hendricks as a dog.
betting on those odds for the Hunt KO seems pretty bad, its a likely result but that like sucks.
and I agree there is a lot of value on Gastellum, Hendrix honestly looks worse and worse every fight, i dont know why but he has lost his KO power and his wrestling doesnt look as dominating as before, he seemed like a better fighter when all he had was his left and takedowns.
On June 20 2016 23:48 soberstone wrote:
I agree on Cormier not necessarily being a great bet but I thought he was competitive with Jones the first time and has gotten better. I favor Jones and think the odds are about right but I wouldn't say it's a runaway fight.
The huge bettor is Vegas Dave and he's just a huge degen who has gotten lucky IMO but we'll see.
There is no way in hell there is value on Miesha Tate at -260. She almost lost to Sarah McMann, who Nunes absolutely annihilated. Tate also gets dropped a lot, including to Jessica Eye. MMA math doesn't prove anything, but in addition to that factor, Nunes tore Zingano a new asshole in rd 1 before gassing. She's the hardest hitter in WBW, one of the best strikers, has much improved TDD. It's basically a question of weather she can avoid gassing if she doesn't finish Miesha (which she probably won't). Considering the magnitude of the fight, I bet she comes in shape.
It's rare that I'd be a pick 2:1 dog SU but this is an instance where I legitimately favor Nunes.
I just think it's a perfect storm of public perception being high on Miesha and a relatively unknown / under-rated fighter in Nunes being much better. Kind of a similar situation to Rousey vs Holm but without the insane hype.
First fight was "competitive" like a fight between Dodson and MM is competitive. Sure its "competitive", but Dodson/Cormier will never win imo.
The problem is, Jones has the edge everywhere. I give cormier a puncher's chance.
Cormier isn't going to magically outwrestle Jones. Its not gonna happen. Jones has clearly shown us hes at least 1 league above Cormier in wrestling, and its not gonna magically change 2 year later.
Outpointing Jones with Standup is like impossible with the 12 inch disvantage and Jone's skill level.
So Cormier has to somehow KO Jones. Cormier by TKO is +1105/-2315.
I'm def betting Jones at -280.
The only little "worry" i have is, Jones did look a bit rusty against OSP, but i think he will at least be 90% of his former self comes UFC 200.
I actually think you have very legit points for Nunes fight. This is also Women fight, so anything can happen. I will probably strongly consider Nunes.
On June 20 2016 23:56 soberstone wrote:
As for the Gastellum bet I really like it. I just don't see a huge edge for Hendricks anywhere. I think Gastellum has much better cardio, more output, and similar kick-boxing and handspeed in the pocket. Both have granite chins but I actually think Kelvin's may be even better.
Obv on paper Hendricks is the better wrestler but I don't think he'll have the cardio to really wrestle much with someone as strong, stalky, and as proficient a scrambler as Kelvin.
To me the fight is a pickem, so I'd just as soon bet Hendricks as a dog.
Where comes the idea Hendricks's cardio is bad? He went 10 rounds with Lawler, and literally never stopped against Brown.
Gastelum, on the other hand, if i remember correctly, often had cardio issues. I think he lost Magny fight because of his cardio.
I'm probably gonna bet Hendricks if i can get him for cheaper than -150
james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;(
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iakim322 United States. Jun 21 2016 04:26. Posts 1335
Tate - Nunes is weird for me. In that I agree with a lot of the good points made in the case for Nunes. And yea I don't think there's value on Tate -250. Yet I just still think Tate will find a way to grind out an ugly win so I'm just going to pass
Agree with Floofy's comparison's of MM/Dodson for Cormier/Jones although maybe I wouldn't reach quite that far. Even if Dodson has the pound for pound better punch than Cormier has, feels like Cormier's 'puncher's chance' is a good bit better. Maybe due to MM's ridiculously technical defense...and also because if Cormier does hurt Jon with a shot, that can change how the rest of the fight plays out with Cormier having way more openings for his wrestling whereas Dodson's only real chance would've been the 5 second opportunity for a swarm right after. Still am not going to be on Cormier. I don't put much stock into Jon looking a little rusty vs OSP. Completely different styles and Jon will be that much more focused vs Cormier because of their background. And that bit of rust mighta been knocked off anyway in between OSP to now. I think I like the over if anything and will probably put a last minute not large bet on Jones
I like Edgar (might be some small natural bias driving this pick), Hunt, and Cain elsewhere. Cain will probably be my biggest bet. Might be a little bit of bias in there as well because who the hell likes Travis Browne but if Cain's healthy and in shape, don't see how it isn't a really favorable matchup for him
What a card.
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iakim322 United States. Jun 21 2016 04:35. Posts 1335
On June 20 2016 23:56 soberstone wrote:
As for the Gastellum bet I really like it. I just don't see a huge edge for Hendricks anywhere. I think Gastellum has much better cardio, more output, and similar kick-boxing and handspeed in the pocket. Both have granite chins but I actually think Kelvin's may be even better.
Obv on paper Hendricks is the better wrestler but I don't think he'll have the cardio to really wrestle much with someone as strong, stalky, and as proficient a scrambler as Kelvin.
To me the fight is a pickem, so I'd just as soon bet Hendricks as a dog.
Where comes the idea Hendricks's cardio is bad? He went 10 rounds with Lawler, and literally never stopped against Brown.
Gastelum, on the other hand, if i remember correctly, often had cardio issues. I think he lost Magny fight because of his cardio.
I'm probably gonna bet Hendricks if i can get him for cheaper than -150
Both have lingering issues with cardio related to their usually terrible weight cuts. Hendricks has proven his cardio isn't terrible but it's definitely looked shaky at times. He's been good at disguising it a bit by slowing his fights down when he feels like he has to with some well timed lay n pray or feinting his big overhand right and resetting repeatedly
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PuertoRican United States. Jun 21 2016 05:32. Posts 13123
I like Cormier on this one at the current odds. Clearly JBJ needs cocaina in his life, his last fight look tentative as fuck. Seems like he's less confident a fighter now. Could just be ring rust but someone who's been on coke then off it will be a different person.
everybody on earth who's ever binged on that stuff. JBJ didn't just do it as some party favor you know, he really lived that coca life
Anyway we'll see in the rematch
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soberstone United States. Jun 21 2016 07:22. Posts 2662
Hendricks cardio isn't terrible, but he fought Lawler in spurts because thats how Lawler paces fights, and Johnny definitely still slowed down in the 5th round of the second fight, which was probably damage related but was also highly inactive for 3 of the rounds.
Gastellum goes hard for 15 minutes straight. Vs. Condit Hendricks slowed down big time, in more of a Kelvin-like paced fight.
Again, don't think Hendricks has bad cardio, I just think it will be a definitive edge for Gastellum and in a very close matchup that sort of thing seems to make a huge difference a lot of the time.
All that plus the +145 points makes Kelvin an easy bet in my eyes.
If either guy KO'd the other, I wouldn't be shocked, and if it was an all out war, I'd favor Gastellum heavily going into the 3rd assuming all other things were equal.
Finally, the intangible tie-breakers go Kelvin's way as well, Hendricks did just get KO'd and is in a shakier training camp situation (I believe, unless he's back with Team Takedown)
Last edit: 21/06/2016 07:24
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soberstone United States. Jun 21 2016 07:29. Posts 2662
Also, for Zingano vs Pena - I'm all Zingano here.
I just think Pena is utter trash other than a decent (but not special) guard and being a physically strong but not technical wrestler. Striking is deplorable. Zingano isn't someone who is gonna get ragdolled or gas, and probably learned about falling into retarded submissions if you know what I mean.
I like Nunes at +900 R1. Will probably livebet Miesha Tate if she survives. Nunes fades hard in later rounds , we have seen it already a few to many times. Tate is tough and gritty and in 5 rounder she will almost certainly take over after the 2nd round.
Love Aldo at + odds. Yes he got KO'd stiff by Conor, but Frankie is a perfect match up for him. Nobody is taking down and holding Aldo down at featherweight and when he has the length and reach advantage, He can always control the fight with his leg kicks and his jab. The fight was close the first time, when Aldo just mauled Edgar the first 2 rounds and then Frankie took over. Expect a great fight and a war here, but I favor Aldo slightly.
I like Hunt as well and as crazy as it sounds I think about playing Travis Browne vs Cain. I just think Cain is a shell of himself and Browne sucks bad , but at the same time He has a huge size advantage and is a hard guy to takedown. With his power and Cain being really hitable I can see him pulling the upset. Maybe some value there.
I don't know why everyone keeps saying that Jon Jones dominated Cormier in the 1st fight. He clearly won the fight but that was it, imo. Rounds were close and DC had his moments, before fading in the later rounds. Also he has gained a lot of experience after his fights with Rumble and Gus , while JJ has been out for a year, becoming a powerlifter and did not look very stellar against OSP. I really think there is big value at Cormier and I expect just before the fight his line to go over +300. Def will be stomping that.
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