UFC 202: Diaz vs McGregor 2 - Page 4

Since Conor is coming in with a different game plan this fight, I don't really seeing him winning via TKO, especially not in R4/R5. Nate would have to lose via cut for Conor to get a late finish; however, this is a possibility since Nate always gets cut easy around his eyes.

Conor has said repeatedly that he:

1. Is coming in with a different game plan.
2. Acknowledges that Nate is tough and durable and can take a shot, which is why Conor gassed in their first fight.
3. Conor said mentioned in the video above how this fight will go longer, but this time he'll still be there beating Nate up and not gas like before.
4. Conor's coach expects a 4th round finish, but it's unlikely imo.

If I were betting this fight, I'd take Conor decision +500, and Nate's ML at +100 or better (it keeps going up and down). I have a feeling Nate will lose if it going to a decision, even though he'll land way more significant strikes on Conor.

I think we might see Nate employ some clinching against the cage, where he can put his weight on Conor and get in a few shots while Conor uses his own energy trying to get himself out of the clinch.

Also, like I mentioned a few posts up, I think Conor will use the Josh Thomson strategy of heavy movement, while never letting Nate get comfortable enough to land with any of his combos. Will this work for 25 minutes? I don't think so, but it'll be interesting to see. If Conor doesn't use heavy movement, then he'll be forced to trade with Nate cuz Nate throws high volume punches at all times, so it kinda makes sense that Conor will use heavy movement.

I'd be very impressed if Conor was able to suddenly have good lateral movement. That's generally not something you can suddenly get good at in one camp. Conor really only moves in straight lines so that he can plant his feet at any moment to throw his power left. His game revolves around this to a big degree. Adding a bunch of lateral movement would make it much harder to plant his feet to throw that power shot. Just look at Cruz/Frankie/MM/even thomson. Those guys rarely ever get off big power shots because their feet are rarely planted to do so. Only person I know about to really pull it off is Wonderboy, but his movement and distance control is worlds better than Conors as well as his kicking game.

On August 14 2016 07:19 Stim_Abuser wrote: I'd be very impressed if Conor was able to suddenly have good lateral movement. That's generally not something you can suddenly get good at in one camp. Conor really only moves in straight lines so that he can plant his feet at any moment to throw his power left. His game revolves around this to a big degree. Adding a bunch of lateral movement would make it much harder to plant his feet to throw that power shot. Just look at Cruz/Frankie/MM/even thomson. Those guys rarely ever get off big power shots because their feet are rarely planted to do so. Only person I know about to really pull it off is Wonderboy, but his movement and distance control is worlds better than Conors as well as his kicking game.

The problem is, Conor thinks he is ready for this rematch, but it was dumb of him to want to rematch Nate only 5 months after losing to him. Yes, Conor was preparing for a different guy and had to adjust his fight style and get used to fighting at a bigger weightclass at the last minute, but Nate was on vacation and pretty much went on autopilot and did his thing. Also, Conor has shown to be a successful counter striker and pounce on opponents when he sees weakness, yet he was super aggro against Nate in their first fight.

The reason why I think we'll see Conor attempt to employ a lot of movement in this fight is because he mentioned his movement, and he also brought back Ido Portal for this fight, that creepy European movement coach he played touchbutt with. I think we'll for sure see Conor be more defensive in this fight and let Nate come to him this time, so he can counter like he's used to. And, if he is more defensive, he'll need to move more, or risk getting overwhelmed and get caught up in a brawl due to a lack of foot movement.

Either way, it should be a great fight.

The one fight I'm having the hardest time predicting is Rumble vs. Glover, as I don't believe they'll meet in the middle where Rumble will get a quick KO like most people think. I've recently thought of 2 ways it can go to a decision, which seems weird considering they're both fighters who finish their fights. Anyway, this is the fight that can make or break my DraftKings teams, so I hope I pick it right.

I can't believe a high level athlete like Conor had nobody around him who understands resting and over training. He will never peak at the right moment like that.

On August 14 2016 07:19 Stim_Abuser wrote: I'd be very impressed if Conor was able to suddenly have good lateral movement. That's generally not something you can suddenly get good at in one camp. Conor really only moves in straight lines so that he can plant his feet at any moment to throw his power left. His game revolves around this to a big degree. Adding a bunch of lateral movement would make it much harder to plant his feet to throw that power shot. Just look at Cruz/Frankie/MM/even thomson. Those guys rarely ever get off big power shots because their feet are rarely planted to do so. Only person I know about to really pull it off is Wonderboy, but his movement and distance control is worlds better than Conors as well as his kicking game.

I agree that Connor has very little lateral moment, he is pretty good at linear distance though kind of like Machida however I strongly disagree that lateral movement means no KO power you can see that in boxing, Mike Tyson used the offensive pivot all the time, Roy Jones Jr danced turned their opponents always looking for weird angles, Jack Dempsey, Muhammed Ali etc.

just made a bet. Connor via unanimous decision at +800.

On August 14 2016 23:59 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On August 14 2016 07:19 Stim_Abuser wrote: I'd be very impressed if Conor was able to suddenly have good lateral movement. That's generally not something you can suddenly get good at in one camp. Conor really only moves in straight lines so that he can plant his feet at any moment to throw his power left. His game revolves around this to a big degree. Adding a bunch of lateral movement would make it much harder to plant his feet to throw that power shot. Just look at Cruz/Frankie/MM/even thomson. Those guys rarely ever get off big power shots because their feet are rarely planted to do so. Only person I know about to really pull it off is Wonderboy, but his movement and distance control is worlds better than Conors as well as his kicking game. I agree that Connor has very little lateral moment, he is pretty good at linear distance though kind of like Machida however I strongly disagree that lateral movement means no KO power you can see that in boxing, Mike Tyson used the offensive pivot all the time, Roy Jones Jr danced turned their opponents always looking for weird angles, Jack Dempsey, Muhammed Ali etc.

That kind of footwork and pivoting is different than the lateral movement used in MMA. You can't really use that kind of movement/pivoting in MMA because it leaves you completely exposed to leg kicks and takedown which is why you haven't seen anyone really use it. When you pivot in boxing you keep your lead leg planted which is death against leg kicks and singles. The reason the Diaz bros are so susceptible to leg kicks and singles is because they kind of adopt the boxing stance. Even modified for MMA without the use of pivoting they still get eaten up by those things and it'd be even worse if they didn't have giant reaches to help counter leg kickers.

I didn't mean to imply its impossible to plant and have power with lateral movement, it is. It's just much, much harder to accomplish and you gotta be a wizard to pull it off.

On August 14 2016 17:52 Montrachet wrote: I can't believe a high level athlete like Conor had nobody around him who understands resting and over training. He will never peak at the right moment like that.

When you are the captain of the ship, ain't nobody gonna tell you shit out of respect.

A good trainer is always the captain of the ship, doesnt matter if he s training the GOAT or a 5yo kid.

Well, obviously hes not a good trainer. No disrespect but we can't say most fighters are wise. They need to read a study or two about training if they are going to make it their life. Hendricks is a good example of idiot . My field of study is biochemistry and I fell that I know more about training and general health than they do.

On August 15 2016 04:44 jvilla777 wrote: Show nested quote + On August 14 2016 17:52 Montrachet wrote: I can't believe a high level athlete like Conor had nobody around him who understands resting and over training. He will never peak at the right moment like that. When you are the captain of the ship, ain't nobody gonna tell you shit out of respect.

That's not respect. That's just being a yes man.

On August 15 2016 03:40 PuertoRican wrote:

Connors leg kicks training in Mjolinar look comically shitty and weak

https://youtu.be/x5fg8zMC948?t=8m26s


This video was already posted, but I'm re-posting it to focus on the part where Conor shoots for a take down and they scramble on the mat in Round 2 of their first fight.

From 8:30 to 14:00 of the video, Dan Hardy goes frame-by-frame and breaks the entire scramble down on his massive flat screen TV. It's really interesting, imo.

On August 17 2016 03:18 PuertoRican wrote: https://youtu.be/x5fg8zMC948?t=8m26s This video was already posted, but I'm re-posting it to focus on the part where Conor shoots for a take down and they scramble on the mat in Round 2 of their first fight. From 8:30 to 14:00 of the video, Dan Hardy goes frame-by-frame and breaks the entire scramble down on his massive flat screen TV. It's really interesting, imo.

that was a good video I remembered that McGregor simply got down so tired that he got easily mounted but it wasnt that simple, nice moves by diaz

They don't bother showing Story on the Vlog lol.

I just found out that Nate Diaz has his own "Road to the Octagon" videos called "Road 2 War," which you can find here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtbmC1qIbeRc5OZD4DGSVfw/videos

Conor's "Road to the Octagon" videos can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC789h3eqw0H1HqGmIsI26OA/videos

On August 15 2016 02:41 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On August 14 2016 23:59 Baalim wrote:   On August 14 2016 07:19 Stim_Abuser wrote: I'd be very impressed if Conor was able to suddenly have good lateral movement. That's generally not something you can suddenly get good at in one camp. Conor really only moves in straight lines so that he can plant his feet at any moment to throw his power left. His game revolves around this to a big degree. Adding a bunch of lateral movement would make it much harder to plant his feet to throw that power shot. Just look at Cruz/Frankie/MM/even thomson. Those guys rarely ever get off big power shots because their feet are rarely planted to do so. Only person I know about to really pull it off is Wonderboy, but his movement and distance control is worlds better than Conors as well as his kicking game. I agree that Connor has very little lateral moment, he is pretty good at linear distance though kind of like Machida however I strongly disagree that lateral movement means no KO power you can see that in boxing, Mike Tyson used the offensive pivot all the time, Roy Jones Jr danced turned their opponents always looking for weird angles, Jack Dempsey, Muhammed Ali etc. That kind of footwork and pivoting is different than the lateral movement used in MMA. You can't really use that kind of movement/pivoting in MMA because it leaves you completely exposed to leg kicks and takedown which is why you haven't seen anyone really use it. When you pivot in boxing you keep your lead leg planted which is death against leg kicks and singles. The reason the Diaz bros are so susceptible to leg kicks and singles is because they kind of adopt the boxing stance. Even modified for MMA without the use of pivoting they still get eaten up by those things and it'd be even worse if they didn't have giant reaches to help counter leg kickers. I didn't mean to imply its impossible to plant and have power with lateral movement, it is. It's just much, much harder to accomplish and you gotta be a wizard to pull it off.

pivoting definitely leaves you open to leg kicks, but its not like you are going to pivot every single time, its just a tool, for example Jose Aldo absolutely destroyed Edgar by pivoting with the check hook.. he ran past Aldo every time Ronda style, and it doesnt leave you that open to singles because you are already at 90 degrees when they catch your leg, so you are halfway escaping already, all you need to do is pull the leg hard.

And that is only if we talk about the checkhook pivot, there is also the lead straight right and escape to the side that Roy Jones JR does all the time or the Tyson fake left hook shuffle to a right hook between the guard.


Maybe you are envisioning a super elusive McGregor moving all over the place and I dont think thats the way he should go, he has a clear edge on the pocket he doesnt have to run away, but he cant simply stay in and tire himself, he has to make Nate work a little bit more to get him to trade, punish the legs and slow down the pace.

5dimes: Nate Diaz +5½ at -125

Amazing line considering his ML was -105 yesterday. His current ML is back up to +110, which will get a lot of biters. I assume the bookie is manually adjusting the line so it can get more action on both sides, which is the end-goal for a sports book.