2/2 - flopped nuts but playing scared

So I'm definitely playing scared after getting rivered multiple times this session in spots where I just could not put them on a hand (mostly middle pair calls downs spiking trips on the river)

8 players limp to Hero in the SB.

Hero in SB ($400) JTo raises to $25
BB calls ($500)
MP calls ($500)
everyone else folds

Flop $80 Ad Kd Qc

Hero bets $40
BB thinks for about 10 seconds and calls
MP calls

Turn $200 Ad Kd Qc 8s
Hero bets $175
BB tank calls
MP folds

River $550 Ad Kd Qc 8s 5d
Hero checks
BB snap shoves

So I have to call $160 for a $700+ pot. Is this a call even if I put my opponent on a flush? Like do I just pay it off here? Or can we actually fold given if we put him squarely on flushes? Obviously the 1 card I was begging the poker gods not to drop was a diamond. Am I pot committed even?

Results: Hero folds, BB shows mercy and turns over AKo

His showdown kinda reinforces my paranoia in live games of being unable to properly range opponents since they just show up with hands in situations that make no sense to me.

I don't fold, because he can value shove worse. I mean in live I don't see why he can't have 2pair easily? You are getting such ridiculous odds to call, that i mean, you don't have to be right much. Obviously it still sucks. In villains shoes Id shove the rest in with AK too.

pretty easy call with odds. mentioning if you have j or td is nice too. since hes bb and you opened 12x hes showing up with ak/aq often and hands like 75d not often. you'll die to some flushes but thats life.

I wouldn't isolate JTo in SB pre here vs 8 limpers

Ok, I think my biggest failure here was just playing scared money/shortrolled trying to build an actual bankroll. I mean im obviously not *that* scared raising 12x from the SB with JTo lol. However I did remind myself I have a bad habit of "paying to see" when I knew I had the best hand up until the river, just to prove to myself I didnt play bad on earlier streets. Had I rationally just said to myself "ok, so he CAN have AQo, AKo, hell maybe even QQ or just be a complete donk with AJss" I think i would have snap called.

How was my betsizing? At first my goal was to leave myself with enough so he'd have to make a crying call with any semi-big hands that cant put me on flopping the nuts. But in hindsight I'm wondering if all I did was set myself up for awkward river situations and should have just shoved the turn. At that time on the turn I just remember telling myself I didnt want him to fold so I kept it under pot and less intimidating than an allin which just looks like AA or something.

Bet bigger flop. As played you should have shoved river because if you are going to c/c you will always lose to flush and never value bad twopair calls or ever fold out badly played straight chop hands.

Bigger flop, Commit bet on turn is best.

On September 14 2017 04:59 NewbSaibot wrote: Is this a call even if I put my opponent on a flush?

well if they always had a flush it would be an extremely easy fold wouldn't it. it's simply not what their range is and not even close to what their range is. with the small amount left on the river they arn't going to fold much so it's a very easy river jam.

I can;t analyze preflop as i don't know stack sizes of all players, it's a pretty weak hand to iso with, wouldn't recommend it unless you got big postflop edges, or if you're never getting limp reraised, but that seems unlikely.

I don't understand the iso preflop considering we're SB

^ the iso is more or less just part of a scripted range of hands I play from the SB. It was part of some "how to beat low stakes donkey filled live games" ebook I bought that seemed to have lots of very specific information geared towards these games that play rather unusual compared to most poker games (ex: online) that suggested playing your SB as aggressively as your BTN. I never really agreed with it but adopted it into my playstyle and even though I cant really keep proper records for position, I dont feel like I've ever gotten myself in any big trouble playing like this. I suppose the basic premise is their hand ranges are so retardedly weak that you'll either win with a cbet or hit the flop so might as well? I dunno, I just sorta "do it" since it doesnt seem to be a leak in these games. I mean look, I just flopped a straight so ez game right?

Regarding bet sizing, I've always been of the mindset to go for 3 streets and set the river up for a bet size they can justify calling. However in situations where theyre going to be getting 5:1 or better on the river, should I just go ahead and jam turn even if it's an overbet? Or do we still like giving them attractive sizes on the turn and if the river ends up being like a $50 bet into a $300 pot then whatever?

in my experience playing online against recs you can have quite a bit of fold equity when you jam the turn or overbet/pot bet. I think the way you set it up for river is fine, and as played it's a clear river jam. I got nothing against setting it up for a turn jam though either though since it's a wet board and you need to protect your hand and make sure you get all the money in against two pair/top pair, although like i said recs are capable of folding top pair to overbets, at least in my experience.


Also the fact that they tank called the turn bet might make it look like they are either slowplaying you, have a legitimately tough decision or calculating pot odds with a flush draw, however i'm guessing most live players at 2/2 are so terrible that they won't give that much thought to calculating pot odds with a non-paired flush draw. It's also a reasonable assumption that a tank-call will remove many of the pair+flush draw combos from their range as I think most players will call with them quite quickly. And if you had the Jd or Td that removes another large amount of flush draw combo's from their range as well, like pooruser said. Not that this matters though since it's still an easy jam even with no diamonds in your hand!

I mean... there's obviously no rational reason for him to have any sets or 2 pair except A8o, but he s a live fish who wont fold a flush draw, so the bet sizings are perfect imo, I really don't like an overbet shove on the turn here.

Then again PU instantly says he should have AK,AQo and I have close to no live experience ( probably 20hours total... live is so fucking boring ) so... I'm used to fishes mostly raising their top range preflop, even passive tight ones, obviously, there's always the occasional exception, but they're not many. I'd also only call if I have a Td or Jd .... the live tendencies seem to be completely different though - as it seems that AK and AQ are both in his range, we should be the ones shoving

playing scared ... raises SB 8 ways with j10 off. Does not compute.

Pre Flop is so garbage i literally could not read the rest of the hand. What are you doing. completing the SB is +ev while your play burns money

OK read the hand. River is a snap esp b/c BB can have more 2 pair combos than any other seat

But really man clean up that preflop game. You might at least have an argument for doing this on the button (although you should still just do it with only J10s even on BU) but 8 ways in the SB is pretty bad

Yeah the whole scared money statement is an interesting paradox for me. Essentially I'm scared to make any mistakes. For instance sometimes I'll call rivers that I would ordinarily fold if I was properly rolled, because i cant afford to give away money to a bluff. Or I'll fold rivers where I think I must be beat because I cant afford to get sucked out on again. Just stuff like that. Thats how I can fold the nut straight when an unlikely flush hits and how I can call with top pair when a backdoor 4 card straight hits. Both huge mistakes but for different reasons.

"playing scared"

iso 12.5bb from sb with JTo...

does not compute lmao

the iso thing worked really well at 2/5 for me. but at 5/10 it seems to stop working. people are aware of position and will limp UTG with AK and AQ and the famous limp-reraise with Aces and Kings.
most of the times you can punish 'super limpers' with really wide limping ranges and collect a very nice 5-6bbs with a good squeeze from the blinds every now and then with a raise to 40-50. but this is not a new trick. the current meta is becoming more aware of this as you have people often times squeezing when they straddle to double the profit. i would say squeezing limps at a tight limping table is acceptable but forget about it when you have a looser table.
8 way limped pot seems like a good squeezing spot but i much rather do it with hands that are a bluff or more value. i might squeeze like KQ+ and any ace. J10o seems like a medium multiway pot hand but meh i digress.

Onto the hand.
If you have J or 10 of diamonds it would block half of his flush draw combos making it the easiest snap call in the world.
i can see your river logic. He called the whole way and didnt jam at any point of the hand. he is most likely on a draw and flush draw gets there and he jams.
Well, you raised 40 preflop so hes probably putting your range on some pocket pair. I know your saying who the hell smooth calls two pair plus on turn? well this live player, even tho commited, just smooth called because he probably put you on a set or some shit and was scared to raise. but then the river hits and you check and he jams all in on river any way lulz. maybe he was trapping you this whole entire way? Who the fak really knows what goes on in other peoples head when they play poker.

There has to be a point in your head where you say. "This is it" "I am Playing for All the Marbles and i dont give a shit what he has" that point was on the turn and you were more committed than a Mormon marriage.

also agree with wobblie. 60 on flop and 200+ on turn. once their range hits, they are not gona fold for 20 dollars more. also smaller looks worse than a normal sized bet.

--- Nuked ---