2/5, when to ship

History: Villain appears to be randomly clicking buttons, is some black dude that bought in for the min $200, first hand in overcalls a 3bet for $75 from UTG with J4s and donk jams into 2 players on a 789r flop and hits a 4 outer. Few hands later he calls a $30 PFR from the SB, x/c on a KTQhh flop, then donkbets full pot on a blank KQT3r turn, then donk jams river on a KQT33r runout. Did not see his cards.

Villain $1000
Hero $1000

Villain limps utg
Hero raises to $25 with Kh Ks
2 callers

Flop $100 J74hhh
Villain donkbets $30
Hero raises to $150
Villain calls

My objective here was that this guy is a fuckin moron and I fully expect these donkbets to be some kind of shit pair + draw type scenario that he'll never fold, so I'm trying to just maximize EV here.


Turn $450 J74Thhh
Villain checks
Hero bets $250
Villain x/r allin

Once again I'm thinking he has some kinda draw, but beyond that with this guy i have no read playing like this. So I'm thinking I want to avoid another situation where I'm getting like 7:1 on the river, but I also dont want to valueown myself by jamming the turn or something.

Call? Fold? How's line up to this point? How's thought process? How do we apply villains play from the previous two hands?

Also speaking of which, these fucking live games are just donkbet city. Almost any hand raised preflop gets donkbet into. Time and time again I see players with exactly what I pegged them on, shit pairs that clearly just "wanted to see where they were at" or something. If they flop ANY overpair on a low board, say 66 on a 223 flop, thats a donkbet. Sometimes a donkshove if it's for 50BB or less. If the flop is K93 they donkbet A9. I've just seen it so many hundreds of times now i cant see it as anything else. Any particular approach to this stuff? It's kinda irritating to be honest lol.

I used to have a philosophy to auto-raise any donkbet as a bluff (and honestly it seemed to work pretty well), because if they are betting for information then I can sell them that info that they're beat. They want you to raise so they can feel comfortable folding. But then I figured maybe I should just call all donkbets and bluff the turn if they check. Thing is, it seems like they dont stop betting then. They dont really know what to do with their mid pair other than bet again to see what you do. Or they bet something stupid like 1/8 pot but dont seem to leave enough for any FE so I feel like I cant shove over.

Preflop:
If villian is cold calling $75 with J4s, your iso size with KK should be a lot bigger than 5x. Given that your 200bb deep, you should iso to about $50 - $75 or some number that is fucking huge lol. you don't really wanna play more than 3 way pots with KK as well.

flop play looks solid and i like your reasoning.

So im guessing you are calling $575 bet to win $2,000 on river? You need about 29% equity, I think i would call given everything you've said about this guy, it's not an easy decision and one that you would know better than us, since you have to make inferences that go off player pool population and his past play.

yeah, really dislike your tiny iso size vs this guy is the main criticism i would make.

thats one of the worst possible boards but im still snap calling him given the info, you definitely have enough equity

the only uncool thing about the spot is that the variance will be insane vs this guy but w/e

the cool thing is we have the Kh, so we have outs against most of his flushes


the reasoning behind turn size btw? I kind of don't understand it at all ( 1/2 pot s almost never a bad sizing, just wondering)

bet call or check turn and value river / call a river bet.

ok good, was really just making sure im approaching these spots better and not just auto-piloting my way with every big hand.

Is it too fancy for me to size that turn bet with the hope that he shoves? I kinda wanted it to also look like I was leaving myself room to fold so that he might push any nut flush draw, or should I still just go for fat value and bet like $400 and just toss in the rest on any river?

Not a big fan of getting it all in vs. fish with just a pair!

I would raise bigger preflop, 40-50, you're deep and he likes to call, flop raise is big, and appropriate given your reasoning.

The turn though, will put you in a tricky spot, the way you've described him is that he's also unconventional, random hands like 89, or two pairs have gotten there, also he could have turned the flush, not to mention that he could have just flopped big.

I would have checked turn, so that I can guarantee a showdown, possibly folding turn here is bad, and also getting it in for 2 buyins is not ideal either.

Another thing that I can keep in the back of my mind is that I don't want him to get a huge stack because of me, you said he bought in for 200$, if he ends up stacking you, and puts him at 2k+, the chance of him leaving the table goes up

given the J4ss hand just gii and don't sweat it unless you have some reason to believe he massively switched up his play since her got deeper. I do assume he is stronger here given the c/r line given he has shown he likes to just donk his trash.

Don't think you can get away tho and you have the Kh. he could be doing this with worse.

if we feel uncomfortable with stacking on this turn consider a check.

But given we have Kh bet/call seems fine too.

im confused. We have KhKx on 3 heart board here right? I feel like this is the easiest betcall of my life. You have to factor in how equities work when we are making our decisions. On flop when he checkcalls this board his range is very wide. Then he checked the turn. So we have a decision to bet or check. We are pushing a solid equity advantage vs his range here. Yes by betting we commit ourselves to calling but thats the way equities work. We are betting turn because our advantage is fairly sizable from the random BS he gets here with. And now we are commited because he isnt that far ahead of us here when he does have us beat. Except with just a few small combos where we are actually drawing dead obv. We bet kinda small even 250 into 360. And we only need 29-30% equity to call it off here when we get shipped on. THATS NOTHING. We have basically like direct odds vs JT here lol. We need him to shove a worse hand here very infrequently for this to be a snap call because of the crippling equity advantage we do have when we are ahead and typically a very small equity deficit when we are behind. Literally if he always had us beat here we probably still have like 23%. It takes very little to make up the small amount of equity we need to reach 29%. Definitely doesnt seem like people are looking at this the right way. We aren't making our decision to bet the turn or not based on how well our bet does vs a shove. We are doing it based on how well the BET itself does vs his range as it is currently defined when we reach the turn. If a possible step 2 is uncomfortable it doesn't mean u can skip step 1 to avoid it. This guy is a huge monkey. For the love of god bet that beautiful high equity hand and leverage more money out of him @_@. Obviously we aren't exactly betting to "protect" per se. But there are 1) some hands that have some equity that will NOT continue on either street perhaps like 78ss. Which maknig it fold is not bad for us since we dont gain anything else from it. 2)Hands that have high equity on turn but dont have a ton of reason to put money in past the turn. IE Ah8x 3)hands that will stack off that are worse than ours that we lose a bet from by checknig back. IE QJhx. We are playing vs a fking fish.


EDIT: And when i say a spot is uncomfortable. I just want to clarify I am happy as a pig in shit calling it off here. Yea i expect to prob only have maybe like 35-45% equity vs his range once he shoves. But I only need like 29%. I'll beat him into the fking pot @_@ this is an amazing situation still

I mean this guy has like 100% of combos of J8s/QJo on turn. How do we not bet. @_@

I did bet. He donkbet and I raised the shit out of him. The he x/r turn after I sized my bet hoping he'd x/r. Thats the part I was questioning, whether thats too fancy. I was thinking it looks like I'm leaving myself room to fold in his eyes but not sure if opponents would even consider I was doing that. I dont really know how they interpret bet sizing.

i bet you the pot size is not even going through his head right now. you could bet 500 and it would be the same as 250 if he decided to call.
if you set a trap dont fold after doing so.
sometimes your scared to go to battle but if you fold here, your honor is on the line bro and you should shame yourself until not doing it again.

check turn is worth considering as connected hands hit two pair and flush gets there. i guess we can calculate the combos of hands we can value vs hands we lose versus to decide a turn bet.
J10 107 89 and any combo of flush i guess we lose to. we beat any Jack, any straight draw, and flush draw. I think bet is good enough to go all the way.

"Also speaking of which, these fucking live games are just donkbet city. Almost any hand raised preflop gets donkbet into. Time and time again I see players with exactly what I pegged them on, shit pairs that clearly just "wanted to see where they were at" or something. If they flop ANY overpair on a low board, say 66 on a 223 flop, thats a donkbet. Sometimes a donkshove if it's for 50BB or less. If the flop is K93 they donkbet A9. I've just seen it so many hundreds of times now i cant see it as anything else. Any particular approach to this stuff? It's kinda irritating to be honest lol.

I used to have a philosophy to auto-raise any donkbet as a bluff (and honestly it seemed to work pretty well), because if they are betting for information then I can sell them that info that they're beat. They want you to raise so they can feel comfortable folding. But then I figured maybe I should just call all donkbets and bluff the turn if they check. Thing is, it seems like they dont stop betting then. They dont really know what to do with their mid pair other than bet again to see what you do. Or they bet something stupid like 1/8 pot but dont seem to leave enough for any FE so I feel like I cant shove over."

you have the right idea. they dont balance their donk bets enough with value hands and will donk bet 1 pairish hands and check raise two pair plus. I tend to raise any hands that i have equity with as a semi bluff almost always. I will exploit then and go thinner if i think they are capable folding anything less than two pair. if they call they most likely will be on draw.
There are a few players who will catch on to what your doing and will be aware when you are doing to them and will hero you down like they are the shit even tho their donk bet is dumb ass hell, usually these are the regs who have played with me quite a bit.