Bitcoins to the moon - Page 16

Market capitalization s simply the number of shares x price of share, every single market has a market capitalization, a commodity, a company a currency or anything, it can be under or ovepriced, or be an outright scam, but saying market cap doesnt apply is straight out non-sensical.

Every currency in the world, precious stones, precious metal, store of value etc is a "non productive asset".

Production cost does not determine the value of things, it only sets the minimum price for market viability (if people are not willing to pay what it costs to produce that thing won't get produced), things are valued based on our own collective perception of value, all the luxury market is a perfect proof of this, a Lois Vuitton hand bag doesnt costs thousands to produce, a famous artits paintig price isnt related to the cost of the canvas, diamons or gold are useless yet very valuable for no other reason that we believe they are, so this idea that bitcoin price should be based on the energy usted to produce it is silly, also fwiw most crypto is based on proof of stake that requires virtually no energy to produce.

The reason I say market cap doesn't apply is basically that for the calculation of coin * total available coins to make sense, the coin must inherently have the same approx value as the currently traded price. In crypto just because someone convinced you or you convinced yourself that a coin is worth X amount, doesn't mean that price translates to value stored in the coin. Your value is now stored in the person who sold you the coin's bank account and whatever you can trade it in for eventually is your store of value. Imagine someone bought every bitcoin ever made... would anyone want one? If lots of people tried to sell crypto, it wouldn't take a large % of the total coins to crash the price - only that the selling pressure and lack of buyers causes the price to drop. With a business, you can literally calculate what this intrinsic value is because of it's assets-liabilities and cash flows (productive value) it creates. Because of that, you can use the calculation of share * total shares to get a reasonable idea of the total value to buy the business and see what people value it as... of course there is slippage in either direction if you were to buy it all. With crypto, this doesn't make sense because the intrinsic value is $0, or what people perceive it to be. I know people believe in the technology etc but that's exactly the issue/hustle going on imo because really that is in peoples heads. It's fine if you want to say that crypto is in your opinion worth $60k for example, but it's not backed by anything or defensible really IMO. I said energy used because the person willing to produce the coin is willing to expend Z amount of energy to gain 1 coin, which then makes sense as a tradable technology to be valued at that price IMO... obv the market disagrees

With brands, basically marketing is being used to convince people shelling out a lot of $$$ will elevate their level of class/refinement and they'll pay more for it. Sure, the items are usually nice but as you said way above production value and there's not really a discount by design. It's supposed to be kept rare so the illusion and chase never ends. If you could buy it all, you would likely realise quickly the hit of consumerism and the idea of chasing a perfect material life was all it was. The fact you could buy it and others couldn't tells them you're cooler/higher class than them somewhere in you/their mind(s), and by the way those who are participating in the same delusion act in response, you're pretty much correct.

I think btc goes to/or below 15k this year. There are a few reasons for this

For one the low was put in on a weekend. Nobody besides weekend traders have longs from discount of the range. This is quite important.
We still have not broken market structure on the daily.
World news is bearish as hell still- things are getting worse.
The timing factor of historical bear markets. Its been too fast so far this should drag out months still.
Major institution liquidations below.

As a neutral I really don't understand all the negativity towards bitcoin as an investment. Facts speak louder than words and so far, despite this recent drawdown bitcoin is still around 13000% return from it's low (at least from what I can see in Tradingview) so it has been and continues to be a good investment. Perhaps it does get ahead of itself easily thus the volatility, and it's obviously not perfect with many risks involved, but I don't think anyone can deny that it has seen growing adoption as the years went by. From big investing firms to ETF creations to big companies buying and adopting bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in one way or the other, and regulations coming. I personally still don't see or understand it or it's value, hence why I wouldn't personally invest heavily into it. I don't think it will revolutionize the world like the internet for example, and even that one had the famous dot com bust. I will just enjoy the show

On June 27 2022 02:46 locoo wrote: As a neutral I really don't understand all the negativity towards bitcoin as an investment. Facts speak louder than words and so far, despite this recent drawdown bitcoin is still around 13000% return from it's low (at least from what I can see in Tradingview) so it has been and continues to be a good investment. Perhaps it does get ahead of itself easily thus the volatility, and it's obviously not perfect with many risks involved, but I don't think anyone can deny that it has seen growing adoption as the years went by. From big investing firms to ETF creations to big companies buying and adopting bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in one way or the other, and regulations coming. I personally still don't see or understand it or it's value, hence why I wouldn't personally invest heavily into it. I don't think it will revolutionize the world like the internet for example, and even that one had the famous dot com bust. I will just enjoy the show

Its a bigger instance of the Fry Festival hoax, we all gloated in the dumb rich kids suffering and dissapointment, with Bitcoin many ppl think we didn't earn or deserve whatever money we made, so watching these "undeserving" people lose is not only schadenfraude, it feels like justice. Also many in their minds missed the opportunity since they've heard about BTC when the price was lower, so if it tanks it's not only justice but it also aliviates the feeling of missed opportunity.

The internet isn't just one thing but things being built upon things so its not really comparable to blockchain, however the decentralization blockchain provides will change many things in our lives in the future.

You can make the exact same argument for those startups that went busto during the dotcom bubble or any Ponzi scheme. There's always "opportunities" when you're in the right place at the right time. It doesn't take away from the underlying bullshit, and the fact that it's rigged for a small percent of people to make a lot of money from. The average retail investor doesn't make much from crypto, and they stand to lose a lot because they are in the dark. They don't know what they are investing in and it's manipulated by the big players that move the markets.

It's not just the rich kids losing money. The rich kids usually are not strongly affected by market crashes, even if they lose more in absolute terms, the money they have invested isn't money they have made from blood, sweat and tears, and it's not going to be lifechanging losses. It's the overly-optimistic small investors who worked all their lives and thought they could manage to pay their mortgage or retire a bit more quickly that get caught and other random people whose quality of life can degrade from the volatility of these investments. That is the argument against. However much bitcoin is up is irrelevant results-oriented thinking, there are always people who have invested a lot recently hoping it was gonna keep going up and an enormous amount of "HODL" nonsense online to encourage them to stick to their investments. If there is a multi-year recession on the way, their life plans have to be altered dramatically. And as is the nature of every bubble, it can be profitable until it pops, but that it pops is inevitable.


I don't think that respectable investors with a strong track record like Michael Burray's issue with crypto can be resumed as "schadenfreude from having missed the boat" or any such silly thing. It's about understanding value and risk and taking it seriously. It's not taking value seriously to say "things are valuable as we perceive them to be". That is the least nuanced take on investments you can possibly have. We live in a culture when we want instant-everything, and the price to pay for some people to have their wishes fulfilled is that other people's lives are destroyed on the other end, and that society as a whole is more easily destabilized because of the gamblers controlling/dictating the economy. Regardless of the potential of the technology behind it, it's not a good thing if it's not adopted towards more noble aims than competitive gambling, and that's why people with a more ethical outlook like our own genjix got the hell out of there.

Btw I was reading a book recently on the subject of the broad impacts of the internet on human life, and a good part of it was on internet addiction, and there was a part in there about gambling addictions. The author cited studies that showed that it's a lot easier for people to develop gambling addictions online, and they are easier to fuel than offline addictions. We're talking about people who are irrationally gambling away all of their money and they can't help themselves having constant access to this possibility without having to get out of the house. Crypto no doubt plays a role in this. My ex-girlfriend's father actually gambled away all of his family's lifesavings around the time that the pandemic hit. He worked a good job in Silicon Valley and had a couple millions, slowly accumulated this money all his life (Asian immigrant) and probably had a reasonable investment strategy up until his 60s until he made a few bad decisions, took too much risk and then started chasing his losses until he had literally nothing left. Our systems make it easy for such things to happen in a flash and it's very sad.

On June 28 2022 04:17 Loco wrote: You can make the exact same argument for those startups that went busto during the dotcom bubble or any Ponzi scheme. There's always "opportunities" when you're in the right place at the right time. It doesn't take away from the underlying bullshit, and the fact that it's rigged for a small percent of people to make a lot of money from. The average retail investor doesn't make much from crypto, and they stand to lose a lot because they are in the dark. They don't know what they are investing in and it's manipulated by the big players that move the markets.

Disagree, direclty buying stocks isn't a realistic option for 90% of the population unlike Bitcoin where a lot of ppl heard about it or has a friend who made money with it etc, so that gloating when it fails is on a different scale.

How is bitcion rigged against retail? almost everyone I know who became rich of crypto was a retail investor myself included, sure big players can manipulate the market and that wrecks retail traders wich is a 0 sum game like poker where the better player wins, unlike long term value investing which is what I'd advise anyone getting into crypto, not margin trading small marketcap altcoins lol.

It's not just the rich kids losing money. The rich kids usually are not strongly affected by market crashes, even if they lose more in absolute terms, the money they have invested isn't money they have made from blood, sweat and tears, and it's not going to be lifechanging losses. It's the overly-optimistic small investors who worked all their lives and thought they could manage to pay their mortgage or retire a bit more quickly that get caught and other random people whose quality of life can degrade from the volatility of these investments. That is the argument against. However much bitcoin is up is irrelevant results-oriented thinking, there are always people who have invested a lot recently hoping it was gonna keep going up and an enormous amount of "HODL" nonsense online to encourage them to stick to their investments. If there is a multi-year recession on the way, their life plans have to be altered dramatically. And as is the nature of every bubble, it can be profitable until it pops, but that it pops is inevitable.

I said rich kinds becasue of the fyre festival not because of crypto, "HODL" isn't nonsense, its the way value oriented restail investors should approach not only crypto but investments in general, if you buy hypes and sells panics you are going to get a bad time. "that a bubble pops is inevitable" means nothing first you have to establish something is actually a bubble, is Tesla a bubble? is Amazon? are bio-tech stocks? is the current Oil price action a bubble? They might or not its hard to say and very knowledgable ppl get it wrong, imagine the weight of the opinion of somebody with no knowledge at all on the subject.

I don't think that respectable investors with a strong track record like Michael Burray's issue with crypto can be resumed as "schadenfreude from having missed the boat" or any such silly thing. It's about understanding value and risk and taking it seriously. It's not taking value seriously to say "things are valuable as we perceive them to be". That is the least nuanced take on investments you can possibly have. We live in a culture when we want instant-everything, and the price to pay for some people to have their wishes fulfilled is that other people's lives are destroyed on the other end, and that society as a whole is more easily destabilized because of the gamblers controlling/dictating the economy. Regardless of the potential of the technology behind it, it's not a good thing if it's not adopted towards more noble aims than competitive gambling, and that's why people with a more ethical outlook like our own genjix got the hell out of there.

And Burry thought TSLA was a bubble, shorted it and had to close his short at a huge loss, turns out traders are often wrong, good ones are wrong slightly less than they are right, as an ex-poker player you should know this very well, I could go into particulars like Burry turning a perma-bear after 08, or Buffet being an octagenarian banker, but there really is no point, there are many investors and traders on both sides each one with their own particular research, biases, ideas etc but my point was about missed opportunity and undeserved wealth was about regular people not about investors obviously, I dont think a professional trader is bitter that their neightbor has "undeserved" money, but regular people do often think like that.

On June 27 2022 02:46 locoo wrote: Facts speak louder than words and so far, despite this recent drawdown bitcoin is still around 13000% return from it's low (at least from what I can see in Tradingview) so it has been and continues to be a good investment.

How is that a good reason for investing in anything? There's no EV argument given here, and the same logic can be used to invest in Enron or any other company that went up about 10,000% then went to 0% the next year. I genuinely hope your not using this kind of reasoning to do your swing trading.

On June 27 2022 02:46 locoo wrote: I personally still don't see or understand it or it's value, hence why I wouldn't personally invest heavily into it.

It's a good investment that you wouldn't heavily invest into?

On June 26 2022 01:50 ggplz wrote: I kind of look at bitcoin with reflection upon the original idea which is that it would revolutionize banking and the way we transfer money globally avoiding fees and currency conversion. People do use it for that purpose now but it's a bit slow. The whole idea was freedom and independence from banks, but the banks are still ultimately in control of points of exchange and the push for regulation in the US with your ID attached to exchanges/wallets is literal kryptonite.

This gives me the impression that many people do not really understand why the banking system is evil. It is evil because they have taken control of industry and people, and turned them into peons. Banks are the reason why Boeing makes planes that crash or why there is so much clickbait in the media. It can be to service corporate debt payments, or because of the focus on quarterly profits. Banks are also the reason why many students pick majors in things they don't like, or why they gets jobs they hate. That's what interest rates on high student debt does.
The other reason that banks are evil is that they will give credit only to the most profitable industries. Many of those industries are actively destroying the world.

I'm not sure what cutting out fee's would do to the banking industry, but the monopolistic banks make a greater share of their profits from cheap access to credit. There's no way JP-morgan will go under no matter what they do, so they are reliable to loan to, and that alone gives them an extreme advantage over smaller banks. Some form of banking industry needs to exist so industry gets it's credit from somewhere, but the banking system now is basically like a parasite feeding off the real economy. It's sucked the creativity and individualism from people, which is the opposite of what a real banking system is supposed to do. It's supposed to give out loans to creative people who make better solar panels or electric jet turbines or w/e it is that will move society forward.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachment...621/992848459868672080/unknown-53.png


*gulp*

lol @ that TA

On July 04 2022 21:24 Baalim wrote: lol @ that TA

The fractal is just an idea that has been spot on since april. The guy is an amazing trader actually has some terms named after him

On July 05 2022 16:31 lostaccount wrote: ill probably rebuy some at 16k

i believe 16,5k!

On July 02 2022 15:02 lostaccount wrote: war is brewing in europe china us economy is crumbing.

news makes it look worse than it is, don't worry, ADA already proved we can use anything, whatever they do, just makes cryptos more bullish in futures !